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The Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Jan 7, 2012.

  1. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    Simonsig can't beat Fingal Bay.
     
    #101
  2. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    He can. <cheers>
     
    #102
  3. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Just watched Tetlami and that was a nice exercise spin. Here's what Henderson had to say:

    "He hasn't actually had much experience and that was perfect because he's had a race without really having a race,"

    "He's best very fresh and Corky (Browne, his head man) didn't even want me to run here. He's a definite for the Supreme, and we've got to sort the others out a bit."

    Had a dabble at 16/1 with Totesport as he seems a definite runner and I still believe he could end up Barry Geraghty's mount in the race, in which case he'll go off single figure odds. He's also got the highest official rating off all the Supreme entrants (at least as far as I could see on Racing Post)
     
    #103
  4. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    oh yes he can... oh no he can't... this could go on <laugh><cheers>

    I respect Simonsig is a very talented horse but the fact remains that the main reason they'll go Supreme with him is to avoid a potential monster in Fingal Bay. It's not like they haven't met before, the last day Fingal Bay had too much on the run-in for him and over a track like Cheltenham, there'd be little hope for the pace horse, Simonsig, to get closer. In fact with the emphasis playing more onto stamina, and in a likely strongly run race, Fingal Bay is only going to increase his superiority over Simonsig. That's why the Henderson horse isn't wishing to take him on again, they saw the last day what their dealing with in Fingal Bay.
     
    #104
  5. GDC

    GDC Active Member

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    cough Hendersons dire record in the race cough
     
    #105
  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Won it same number of times as Nicholls and Mullins <whistle>

    In fact:

    Leading trainer since 1972 (2 wins):

    Mick O'Toole &#8211; Mac's Chariot (1977), Hartstown (1981)
    Edward O'Grady &#8211; Golden Cygnet (1978), Back in Front (2003)
    Nicky Henderson &#8211; River Ceiriog (1986), Flown (1992)
    Martin Pipe &#8211; Sondrio (1989), Hors La Loi III (1999)
    Pat Flynn &#8211; Montelado (1993), French Ballerina (1998)
    Willie Mullins &#8211; Tourist Attraction (1995), Ebaziyan (2007)
    Noel Meade &#8211; Sausalito Bay (2002), Go Native (2009)
    Paul Nicholls - Noland (2006), Al Ferof (2011)
     
    #106
  7. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    Stats and trends merely tell us what has happened not what is to happen...<whistle><run>
     
    #107
  8. GDC

    GDC Active Member

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    merely pointing out Hendersons extremely bad recent record in the novice events, I for one follow the trainer but without doubt not in this race! :) I hope Simonsig heads for the Neptune
     
    #108
  9. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    Forgive me for a moment whilst I play devil's advocate but without an awesome Ruby Walsh ride in last year's Supreme on Al Ferof wouldn't we be lauding a Henderson 1-2 in it? <whistle>
     
    #109
  10. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    Forgive me for a moment whilst I play devil's advocate but without an awesome Ruby Walsh ride in last year's Supreme on Al Ferof wouldn't we be lauding a Henderson 1-2 in it? <whistle>
     
    #110

  11. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    I can assure you that Nicky is not afraid of Fingal Bay one bit.

    Simonsig will improve for a stronger pace because he travels like a dream. They found a problem which was why he didn't pick up against Fingal Bay. He will also improve for better ground.

    Henderson: "Oh he'll definitely beat that Hobbs horse".
     
    #111
  12. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    We'll agree to disagree on this one <cheers> I'm very confident Fingal Bay will be winning at Cheltenham and the way he's priced up the bookmakers are like minded.

    Regarding Mr Hendersons comments I'd be pretty sure similar comments were made about Long Run beating Kauto Star in the King George or Haydock etc etc etc Trainers are ever optimists in that respect, otherwise there's not much point pitching them into these races against top horses <cheers>
     
    #112
  13. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    I can assure you that he wouldn't be saying what he said to me to the press. This was no pointless/meaningless soundbite. Make of it what you will, and ignore it if you like, but I can only pass on what I was told.

    <cheers>
     
    #113
  14. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    If you listened (and believed) everything these trainers said about their horses you'd a went bust a long, long time ago <laugh>

    To get us back on topic for the Supreme I like Dylan Ross at 33s. How about that for a radical suggestion, bearing in mind his form resembles Forpadydeplasterers with his strong of 2s....Quicker pace and better ground are what he needs and I can see him going well in this.
     
    #114
  15. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    Good horse Beef but there is little chance of him out battling something up the hill

    the one that won at the weekend is my idea of the winner if he turns up - TRIFOLIUM
     
    #115
  16. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    He mightn't be another Go Native RV but I'm convinced we've yet to see the best of him. I guess Sundays racing will show the form off better mind. He's a horse I've liked all season
     
    #116
  17. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    I like him also <ok> would be nice to see him run well at Chelts. Travels like a class horse
     
    #117
  18. Quelesprit

    Quelesprit New Member

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    Beefy, Dylan Ross will definitely not win the Supreme. Please don't waste your cash on him. Total dog. Doesn't have a good finish in him.
     
    #118
  19. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    Just found out the jock doing the card in our marquee Tue/Wed is Geraghty, should be interesting.
    Usually have Andrew Thornton who is brilliant but he gets fewer festival rides these days and races at the other tracks, last year we had Paddy Brennan who was dreadful, looking forward to seeing what Geraghty is like....
     
    #119
  20. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Zen just to highlight your logic RE Captain Conan, I think this interview makes it pretty clear:

    http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=58806&prt=L

    Nicky Henderson has confirmed Captain Conan will run in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.

    His French import won the Tolworth Hurdle on his British debut and the trainer will use the weekend's race to determine whether he's ready for Cheltenham.


    "He's a lovely big horse, a very good big horse I hope, but I'm not really sure he needs to be going to Cheltenham this year. The alternative was to wait for a nice novice hurdle at Ascot next week but it isn't worth a fortune and probably wouldn't tell us an awful lot," Henderson told At The Races.


    "I thought if we were ever going to take on good horses I might as well do it now and see if he really is grown up enough for Cheltenham. It will be quite interesting to test the English and Irish novices before Cheltenham and that doesn't happen very often.


    "Molotof will run in the listed hurdle at Exeter on Sunday and that's really the last decent novice there is over two miles, there's the Dovecote at Kempton but I wouldn't want to be going there with Captain Conan."
     
    #120

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