Is the Martin Landau who part owns French Opera the guy from Space 1999? Very cool series from my youth (although I couldn't stand the blonde bint)
I think they are fair enough, bit surprised with the two novices being in the 170s but it shows that their isn't too much between the lot. That + is hopefully going to make the number expand a good deal!
"Zarkandar could well go and win and looks well-handicapped but whatever happens, win, lose or draw, there will be a lot to come and he has been trained with the Champion Hurdle in mind," said Nicholls." Woolcombe, is this a joke statement from Nicholls? The season is past halfway and Zarkandar hasn't seen a racecourse yet! Why can't he be 100% fit? Isn't five weeks on from Saturday enough time to recover for the Champion Hurdle? What on earth is racing coming to? For my money he has to win this on the book with 11st 1lb for it to be even worthwhile running him at Cheltenham. If he doesn't, then Nicholls may as well return him to his box and prepare him for another "arduous campaign" next season! The thing against him is that Triumph Hurdle horses and form translates badly the following year and to the top level and, strictly on Triumph running, Third Intention is 9lbs better off for a nine lengths beating. However, notwithstanding Zarkandar, I like the each way chances of Get Me Out Of Here. He likes Newbury; has won this race before: and stayed on really well against Oscar Whisky. How many of these could get near to Oscar Whisky, getting only 8lbs? The 20/1 available really appeals and you'd have to say that his weight has likewise benefitted from the inclusion of Brampour. I'd fancy him really strongly of 11 st 1lb as top weight in the absence of the Nicholls pair. A strongly run race will be right up his street and he'll be staying on when others have cried enough.
I really do not believe that Get Me Out Of Here is well handicapped. OK he won it two years ago but off a much lower mark but he was well beaten last year off a similar mark to Saturdays. I dont believe he is improving and will be mightily surprised if at least three or four Zarkandar included are not better treated. The Timeform ratings I put up earlier give him a very good squeak but there are a few likely improvers in the field off better marks. Be interesting to run a comp on this on Saturday, weather permitting, name the first four home. 1. Sire De Grugy 2. Zarkandar 3. Darlan 4. Third Intention
Stick, yes, he ran a poor race last year but most horses run bad races. I accept he's not improving but I'm more interested in his latest form. Oscar Whisky is on a different planet to most of these and GMOOH ran really well against him last time. I prefer top level form to Triumph Hurdle form which, although last year's contest has worked out extremely well, none of them has run against horse of the grade of Hurricane Fly, Oscar Whisky, Binocular , etc. Yes, he may have been flattered to get to under 2 lengths behind OW last time, but I still believe 11st 1lbs is a good handicap mark against these.
Ladies and Gentlemen, to add to my antepost thoughts: 3.45 - Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m Brampour (33/1) - Possibly a slight disappointment last season when only 9th at Cheltenham and Aintree. Showed the benefit of a breathing operation with convincing handicap wins at Ascot and in the Greatwood at Cheltenham. A fair 3rd in the International Hurdle up to Graded company and then down the field just a week later in the Ladbroke when probably finding the run coming too soon. Has had a nice break and has to enter the reckoning but it would be a big surprise if he can give weight and a beating to stablemate Zarkandar who had him 11 lengths behind in the Triumph. Zarkandar (3/1) - The top juvenile last season having been unbeaten in 3 starts, including the Adonis, the Triumph and the Anniversary. Rated 154 after his Cheltenham win but received the good fortune of being dropped 3lbs for a below par effort at Aintree. That was more than excusable considering it was his 3rd run in 6 weeks and he had an abscess to contend with. Nicholls has consistently maintained that he is not only the best of his current batch of Champion Hurdle contenders (Rock On Ruby, Brampour, Celestial Halo) but that he is his best chance he has ever had in the race. If that is the case then he looks very well treated off a mark of 151. The Triumph Hurdle form has worked out really well and he was an impressive winner that day. A few have suggested that he looked outpaced at stages during the race but I totally disagree. To me he looked green and lacking experience because whenever Daryl Jacob asked him to pick up he did so readily. I think he was a comfortable winner of a race that is working out exceptionally well. I think he can improve greatly on what he has shown and with the added benefit of a breathing operation I expect him to go well. The second concern is whether he will be primed for the occasion. Quite obviously Nicholls will have left a little to work on because he wants to win the Champion Hurdle not a (admittedly valuable) handicap. However, I find it impossible to believe that he will not be ready to do himself justice. If this was just a stepping stone to the Champion Hurdle then surely it would make sense for Daryl Jacob, almost certainly his big race pilot, to keep the ride. The fact that Ruby Walsh takes over tells me that they are here to win. Nicholls has played down expectations which is understandable but talk of being happy with a first 6 finish seem misplaced. I would guess that connections will be mightily disappointed with anything other than a win given his apparently lenient handicap mark. He looks well treated, I think he will be ready, so everything looks in place for a big run. Get Me Out Of Here (20/1) - Winner of this race back in 2009 before a fast finishing 2nd in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Could only finish 8th off a 1lb lower mark last year but was then a terrific 2nd in the County Hurdle to Final Approach. That came off a mark of 148 so 151 should be feasible. His form this season has been over further and he might just want more of a stamina test these days. You couldn't discount him but the fact that Tony McCoy has gone elsewhere suggests that he isn't the McManus first string. Final Approach (12/1) - Just got up under an inspired Ruby Walsh in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last March. He was an eyecatching 4th behind Voler La Vedette in December over 2m4f when travelling well before tiring. He then won a weak race back at 2m in convincing fashion. He is 11lbs higher than his County win and, for all that he is entitled to still be improving, there might just be one or two better treated. Marsh Warbler (40/1) - A Grade 1 winning juvenile but could only finish 11th in the Supreme Novices' at the Festival. He hasn't really gone on this year being beaten in handicaps off marks of 148 and 150. Runs here off 149 and might enter the reckoning if the ground turned very soft. Soldatino (14/1) - The Triumph Hurdle winner back in 2010 when he was the only horse to run down the valiant front-running Barazan. Was beaten in three handicaps off this mark last year including a 5th in this race. He was one of the Pricewise selections for the race and would have a chance if he has learnt to settle better which would enable him to be ridden closer to the pace. Reported to have been working well, and settling well, and could well go close. Darlan (9/1) - Unbeaten in 4 races but a mark of 146 looks stiff enough, especially since he has now been dropped to an official rating of 143 since the weights were published. Nicky Henderson was furious with his mark and I think it is easy to see why. He is allowed to take his chance despite being 3lb 'wrong' and is the choice of AP McCoy but makes little appeal at the prices. Via Galilei (33/1) - A consistent sort who keeps running well in these races without getting his head in front. The downside of that is that the handicapper is given little opportunity to relent and he looks held at the weights. Not impossible that he could run well but I fancy that others are better treated. Sire De Grugy (14/1) - The apparent Moore first string and the second antepost Pricewise selection. He was a well beaten 6th of 8 on his seasonal debut at Chepstow on heavy ground but that effort can be forgiven. He chased home Topolski at Aintree last season but that one has done little for the form since having failed to beat a single rival home in 3 starts (1 flat and two jumps). The second hasn't set the world alight either and a mark of 143 in this (official mark of 141) looks a tough ask on what he has shown so far. Formlines through Empire Levant would give him every chance but I think that horse has improved hugely this season and he will need to do likewise to figure. Desert Cry (40/1) - All out to win a weakish handicap at Haydock early in the year and an 8lbs rise seems to have stopped him in his tracks. Was well beaten in the Ladbroke and then 5th at Musselburgh but this looks tougher again. Hard to see him getting involved off this mark. Third Intention (14/1) - Well beaten behind Brampour twice this season but showed an improved effort to chase home Triumph fancy Ranjaan at Taunton last time. This is a step up and he appears to be coming to form at the right time. Will need to settle but entitled to go well. Empire Levant (14/1) - A good juvenile but always looked a weak sort who would improve for another year. He was beaten by both Third Intention and Sire De Grugy last season but looks a different horse this time around. Absolutely destroyed a weak looking handicap field by 29 lengths over course and distance back in November and then chased home stablemate Rock On Ruby in the Gerry Fielden just 2 days later. Has since gone up 12lbs but that looks fair given that Rock On Ruby was arguably unfortunate to go down by a 1/4 length to Binocular in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and is now rated 20lb higher on 165, the 3rd horse (beaten 4 and 1/2 lengths) was Raya Star who went on to win the Ladbroke (now rated 139), the 5th Alarazi was 3rd in the Ladbroke and so on. The form looks strong and a 12lb rise looks within his compass. The plan was originally to go chasing with him but the fact that he stays over hurdles suggests that connections still feel there is a big prize in him. Alarazi (20/1) - An impressive winner of the Imperial Cup and has been knocking on the door ever since. A close up 3rd in the Ladbroke when just collared close home and could still go well off his current mark. Disappointed over course and distance in the Gerry Fielden when a well beaten 5th but has been targeted at this all season. Could go well but just think he might be more exposed than some.
Raya Star (10/1) - 3rd in the Gerry Fielden before winning the Ladbroke in what has already been a productive season. Up 5lbs for that success which looks reasonable with more improvement to come off a stronger pace. A progressive horse and it's not hard to see him going well. Ubi Ace (33/1) - Winner of a Listed Handicap at Sandown in December but since beaten over course and distance by Celestial Halo. Definitely one on an upward curve but this is his toughest assignment yet. I'm not sure the form of that race is the strongest so others are preferred. Ciceron (25/1) - I tipped him up at a huge price for the Ladbroke Hurdle but I missed the boat by one race as he won at Sandown next time out having been tipped up by Pricewise and Paul Kealy and subsequently heavily backed. It was nice to know that I wasn't barking up completely the wrong tree. Beaten upped in trip at Ascot next time and you suspect that he might have done his winning for a little while. Olofi (12/1) - A slightly unfortunate 2nd in the Greatwood Hurdle and was travelling well when seeking compensation over course and distance in December before falling 2 out. He looks to be on a winnable mark and must enter calculations. Rigidity (33/1) - 2nd in the Ladbroke but only 6th next time in the race won by Celestial Halo. He was unfancied for the Ladbroke and it is possible that he benefited from being close to a steady pace. Gets in here on the minimum weight of 10-00 and he could go well but others look to have stronger claims. Ericht (33/1) - Chased home Steps To Freedom and Prospect Wells in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham on his hurdling bow but has disappointed twice since at Newbury and Huntingdon, both times as a short priced favourite. Was clearly well regarded and if he bounced back to form then he could be nicely weighted. This looks a tough ask for a horse with question marks but he must be respected. Abergavenny (40/1) - Unbeaten in 3 minor hurdles races before a cracking run in 3rd in the Greatwood. Then only 10th in the Ladbroke and it might be that he wants a touch further over hurdles (never competitive but "plugged on" in the Cesarewitch over 2m2f on the Flat). That might explain his poor showing in the Ladbroke because the steady pace would not have helped. A stronger gallop here might see him to better effect. Attaglance (50/1) - On the upgrade and well fancied favourite at Sandown last time but was pulled up early after losing his action. Has questions to answer and is 6lbs wrong at the weights. Will need to be well ahead of the handicapper to feature. Double Ross (40/1) - Has been keeping high company in novice hurdles this season, chasing home Fingal Bay, Cinders And Ashes and Broadbackbob. He is 6lbs wrong at the weights and it will be interesting to see how he figures given how he ties in a few of the novice formlines. Conclusion If Zarkandar is the Champion Hurdle contender that I think he is then he must go very close to winning this off a mark of 151. I think he could be a stone well in and even if he does improve for the run, as I'm sure he will, I think he has enough in hand to win. The booking of Ruby Walsh indicates that they are here to win, and not just give him a prep for the Champion Hurdle. That does not mean it is an easy task because he will be giving weight to a lot of progressive horses, not least his stablemate Empire Levant. His 12lb rise for his two Newbury efforts looks fair and he is entitled to go well for Daryl Jacob. Others for the shortlist include Raya Star, Olofi and Soldatino, and, as you would expect, there are plenty lurking at bigger prices who might be capable of springing a surprise if everything went their way. I have already backed Zarkandar at 9/2 antepost (if you haven't backed him already you have probably missed the boat) and Empire Levant at 18/1 (still looks fair value at 14/1) and am delighted with both bets. Raya Star would be my 3rd selection at 10/1 EW with Coral. I think the Gerry Fielden form is strong so I will go for a repeat performance with Zarkandar taking the place of Rock On Ruby this time around. 1. Zarkandar 2. Empire Levant 3. Raya Star 5pts Win Zarkandar at 9/2 with William Hill (Antepost) 1pt EW Empire Levant at 18/1 with Stan James (Antepost) 1pt EW Raya Star at 10/1 Coral
Good mind thinks alike Zen, exactly the same bets I have done, although I have done 2pts e/w on Empire Levant, expect a big run from him on saturday. And I have done 0.5 pts e/w on Via Galilei a massive price @ 33's and is a very consitent hurdler, could definately run in to the placings!
Looks like Saturday is VERY doubtful but, looking at the forecast, they would piss it on Sunday, up to 4°C. Why don't they put it back 24 hours?
The latest from the Newbury Managing Director is that they'll be fine so long as there isn't a load of snow tonight. They've had a bit but we just have to hope there isn't too much more. I will be beside myself if it's off. I need it to be on to keep me sane.
I hope the snow stays away fron Newbury! If we dont have much there tonight we have a genuine chance of it being on!
Its snowing there but not heavily. Temperatures are due to drop as low as -9 on Friday night/Saturday morning. Nothing short of miraculous if they get this on. I haven't looked forward to a race this much since last March!
They don't get this on I'm afraid, tens on shot it's off IMO. You never know the powers that be might get their heads together and get 2 or 3 of these races rescheduled to Sandown (Friday) or Kempton (Sat) the week after....
I live 20mins from Newbury.And we've had about 2 inches so far this evening,with severe weather warnings forecast for the next few days. So it would be a miracle should it still be on.
FFS. Saturday ruined! Here in the Midlands its bone ****ing dry still. Havent got a turf racecourse within 30 miles- typical! Snowed for like 5 mins earlier and then melted.
