you also never know what's going to happen in the next 5 weeks, Ruby rides all the best horses but i totally understand what you mean
This is such an intrigueing handicap. I am sure that everyone will agree that if Zarkandar is Champion Hurdle material then he should take this comfortably. Nicholls has even had the luxury of deciding the weight that he will carry by leaving Brampour in. I have had a good look and cannot see anything in the race that is open to the amount of improvement that Zarkandar is. Is it too short to play in a competitive handicap? Yes, but only for two reasons. Firstly that it's his seasonal debut, forgiveable due to being trained by the master and secondly that it's not the horses target. It's a step on a route to the big prize. As I stated earlier though, if he is Champion Hurdle class then he must win this comfortably. My conclusion is that he will win this but possibly not as easily as we might like but I dont think he will beat Hurricane Fly in March if both arrive there healthy. I may back him on the day, I am done with ante-post recently. The only other horse I would seriously consider backing in the race would be SIRE DE GRUGY each way. His yard is bang in form and he comfortably has the beating of Empire Levant. He was very progressive last season and if Jamie Moore chooses to ride him, I suspect he will, he represents a value each way bet to me. Good luck everyone on ZARKANDAR.
Stick - If Zarkandar wins lets say without really stretching himself what will you take from it...? As im with you he should win this weekend and its going to be a good indicator as to where he is at... If Zarkandar is made to work for his win then do we take any positives from him that he can step up and challenge Hurricane Fly... I dont know which way to look at it if its a easy win or that he had to put in a big effort to win this race... What do you think...? What i will say tho is HF is a different proposition and if Zarkandar came in a struggling 2nd you can cross off any thoughts of him pushing HF...
Absolutely redcgull, it's a bit of a weird one because if Zarkandar smashes them then my first thought was 'they're nothing on HF though' and if he wins just then I could just as easily think 'well then, he's got it in him, just needs to come on for the run'. I'm not sure Zarkandar can do anything in this run to suggest that I'd fancy him over HF - even if he wins on the bridle.... As you say, the only certainty is that if he can't beat this lot, even not 100% fit (which I doubt is the case anyway) then he can't beat the Hurricane.
I do think the 3/1 on offer though for him is genourous as we all think he should win this... Prob wait till sat for a bet on him though...
He might not be 110% tuned to the very minute fit, but he will be ready to run and do himself justice. I'm on at 9/2 and can only see him shortening all the time. He was as short as 5/2 with Ladbrokes yesterday and it must be quite likely that other bookies will be following suit in time. I would think he'll be 2/1 on the day. As for how he wins (if he does at all), I think if he wins reasonably well then he'll be 2nd favourite for the Champion. If he gets turned over then it would be disappointing and Hurricane Fly starts to look like even more of a certainty than he already does. Nicholls is expecting him to win because he wouldn't run him in a race like this otherwise. I hope he's right and we get a genuine Champion Hurdle contender if nothing else.
So it looks like Zarkander is a handicap certainty, he will certainly be ready, and Nicholls loves winning the big ones, and the little ones. It will be very short on the day judging by the hype on here, and if it wins look out Hurricane, imo.
If you like your trends, then here are some key Betfair Hurdle pointers:> Age: 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or younger, and since 1980 there's only been one winner aged 9 or older Experience: 8 of the last 11 winners raced no more than 10 times over hurdles Official Rating: 9 of the last 11 were rated 130+ Current Form: 10 of the last 11 winners were placed in the first 5 in their previous race Betting: 10 of the last 11 were in the top 10 in the market, while 7 of the last 11 were in the top 5 in the market Trainer: Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has never won this race, and is yet to even have one placed
SIRE DE GRUGY it is then, Moore has won it twice in the last five years! Oh but he was only sixth on his seasonal dabut...doh!!
Gents, any idea if GMOOH is a runner in this? At 16/1 he would be my EW call in the race (with a good win on Zarkandar). He has shown on a couple of occasions that he is capable of hacking up off this mark, and I think this race would be perfect for him (being a past winner and all!)
A past winner off 135 and beaten in this 15 lengths last year from a pound lower, meeting Zarkander at level weights.....have you been drinking TT?????
The 'trends' highlighted by the old 'Weekender' today are: Since 1966 only 2 horses have carried more than 11-7 to victory The last 9 winners have been rated 124-144 No winner has been rated above 150 in the last 30 years No winner has won first time out for 30 years No handicap debutante has won since 1994 Only one horse older than 7 has won since the 1993 race Only 4 novices have won since 1973 (however novices have won the last 2 renewals) There has been no dual winner since 1964 They say there are 2 standout contenders this time around - Raya Star and Olofi with the nod being given to the former.
Fingers crossed that the meeting goes ahead! Zarkandar looks well in BUT with Mr Nicholls stating he will not be fully tuned up the outside bet must be Olofi? Was going extremely well when coming down LTO, Soldatino's price has been drifting over the last few days!
NASS will like this....Timeform ratings for the Betfair; Betfair Hurdle: 178p Zarkandar, 177 Third Intention, 173 Get Me Out Of Here, 172+ Olofi, 172 Abergavenny, 172 Ciceron
stick, I do think GMOOH is a really interesting horse in the race and that rating for me is justified. Olofi's rating is interesting, I think its a bit high and I can't have Ciceron in there either.
wonder what you make of these then Betfair Super Saturday Chase: 173 Cue Card, 170p Sprinter Sacre, 169 French Opera, 167 Stagecoach Pearl, 165+ Hold Fast
