A 3 stop strategy probably means tyre changes after 13 aggressive laps, 28 calmer laps and 43 laps before a run for the flag. Will any team risk a 2 stop strategy probably meaning tyre changes after 17, 18 or 19 laps depending on what has gone on, then after say 38 laps? Might Button try it, with Hamilton doing a 3 stop strategy? Could this provide valuable tyre wear information for the races to come? The lap time fall off would be very informative. Have McLaren got more to gain than lose from this approach, the lap time difference to the leaders would be very interesting?
I don't think teams will have a choice - it'll be a 3 stops in Melbourne. According to Alonso and Mark Hughes there is little a team/driver can do to influence the degradation on the Pirelli's.
I would the team would have 3-4 pit stops. So far in all the race simulations the drivers have done a minimum of 3 pit stops, and after a few laps the tyres degrade quickly. To be honest I don't think drivers will be able to do a stint of more then 20 laps. Not sure which strategy is overall the quickest but Alonso looked very quick on his 4 pit stop race simulation yesterday.
Does anyone remember at Melbourne the number of seconds to pit and change tyres and get back out again? Roughly 20-22 seconds?
3 or 4, not 2 or 3. No team will manage a two stopper. The front runners will struggle to reach double figures with the first set, by the time they've qualified on them and then carted a full fuel tank round for a few laps they'll be shagged, especially as they're likely to qualify on the softs. I reckon they'll ditch the softs early and then try to reach the finish with three sets of hards.
If thats the case a driver doing 1 stop fewer would have approx 24 seconds divided by say 12 laps, therefore could afford to be 2 seconds per lap slower and still be in the reckoning.
When the tyres go off they've been costing about 4 or 5 seconds per lap. I always say this (usually when it's raining rather than tyre wear), it never pays to be on the wrong tyres. It always works out slower and there's a real chance you could put it in the wall. If your tyres are shot, change them.
I think the best strategy might just be four stops. Since there are only six sets of tyres available for both qualifying and the race, you would have to use five sets of tyres in the race if you want to pit 4 times, meaning you would have to use slightly old sets of tyres in the race - I'm sure Alonso did this in his race simulation, because when he pitted for new tyres the lap times did not decrease by much like they did in the earlier tests. Completely agree. I think Ferrari did this in Alonso's race simulation which is why Alonso pitted four times and also why his lap times were never slower then a 1.30
Im looking forward to Melbourne, im fairly sure there will be no two stoppers, and maybe the odd four stopper, like the midfield teams who have nothing to lose. its gona be a changed era in formula one, and hopefully for the better.
This is where it gets complicated. Teams who get through to Q3 are presumably going to have to use at least two sets of tyres, probably three. If they do four stops they're going to start and finish on used tyres. Drivers are going to only get one crack at each quali session as well. Last season we often saw a top driver in trouble in Q2 and occasionally Q1, and they'd have to come out and do another lap, sometimes. This year there'll be huge pressure to get it right first time, because if you don't you're either starting down the grid, or compromising your race strategy by using extra tyres.
I think it's very unlikely to see a team succeed with only two stops unless there is something Pirelli have been hiding from us allââ¬Â¦
OK. So if the concensus of opinion is 3 stops with some teams doing 4 - then we are moving back towards the winner will be the team with the slickest tyre changes !!! We also have drivers spending too much effort managing the facilities on the steering wheel. I still think McLaren might decide to ask Button to do a 1 less stop strategy -they are going to be in catch-up mode in Australia. With his smoother driving style and the chance to try changes to set-up during the race they need to close the likely performance gap to the front runners. Currently they look to be outside the top 3 or 4 teams at least?
I REPEAT According to Alonso and Mark Hughes there is little a team/driver can do to influence the degradation on the Pirelli's. Therefore no team/driver will be able to do one less stop than the other.
It is perhaps unfortunate that in their efforts to satisfy a largely ignorant general public who clamour for overtaking with little appreciation of subtlety, the FIA seem to have taken a few backward steps with an increase in gimmickry and a short-sighted directive to a new tyre supplier. F1 is still Grand Prix racing! - As such, It should present the biggest possible challenge to driver and machine. Any increase in the role of the team during the race itself, necessarily detracts from the net contribution of a driver, since he/she becomes ever more reliant upon factors outside of his/her control. A deliberate increase in the number of pit-stops a driver will need to make is effectively a throwback to the cheap and tacky refuelling era - which similarly reduced driver responsibility! (Although once again, this was lost on a largely ignorant public).
Yes Sportydan, I too am looking forward to Melbourne and sincerely hope that my present concerns are wrong. You mention your belief that we are entering a new era, and I agree that this is likely. But having recently had some of the best seasons in Grand Prix history, it is easy to take a backward step. What matters to me is that the effects of a driver's input throughout a race are maximised rather than trivialised through extra team responsibilities and various other gimmickry.
I can see it being a 3 stop but 1 driver will have to trigger the 3rd stop. if it is a 3 stopper then it could become more common place to see 3 stop races with the occasional 2 stop risk strategy
McWilliams - if Alonso said it - it must be right....... what a load of b*llocks. We'll just have to wait and see.
Watching the first of the F1 preview vids on the BBC website, I think I remember that the tyre wear meant that in 3 laps, Hamilton started 5 seconds behind Schumacher (may have been the other way around-sorry), overtook him and got 5 seconds clear. If thats the true rate that the tyres go off at (potentially more than 4 seconds difference between fresh and old tyres) then the 24 seconds needed to change works out at only 6 laps on more worn tyres. Vettel reckons the tyres may last 16 laps (not sure which compound, see here: http://uk.autoblog.com/2011/03/12/tyre-problems-f1-drivers-complain-about-new-pirellis/) so that would mean the tyres lose about a quarter of a second per lap. This is only rough, but comparing everything to new tyres, over the 58 lap Melbourne Grand prix, and assuming the pit stops are evenly spread: 3 stops: Lap 14, 29 and 44. (ish) -1st stint: 26.25 seconds lost compared to fresh tyres -2nd stint: 30 seconds lost -3rd stint: 30 seconds lost -4th stint to flag- 26.25 seconds lost. Total time lost: 112.5 seconds. Assuming 3 stops at 24 seconds each, total time lost: 184.5 4 stops: Lap 12, 23, 35, 46 (again, approx.) -1st stint: 19.5 second lost -2nd stint: 16.5 seconds lost -3rd stint: 19.5 seconds lost -4th stint: 16.5 seconds lost -5th stint: 19.5 seconds lost Total time lost: 91.5 seconds lost. 4 stops at 24 seconds each gives a total time loss of 187.5. Well thats an interestingly tight strategy! If stops are less than 24 seconds, go with 4 stops, or if tyre wear is slightly lower, then go with 3 stops. Equally, the 4 stops, whilst slightly slower may be preferred because a driver on fresher tyres may be better equipped to challenge those around them. Chuck in the difference between the compounds, how worn tyres (which would be used for a 4 stopper), and how traffic has an impact, the race engineers are going to be having fun. Still, I'm sure its not the first time the strategy is this tight, and besides, they can use Game Theory to model everything, something a little beyond me. Hope that was vaguely interesting folks, if you want to point out any errors, or want anything explaining (or other strategies calculated) let me know.
Interesting analysis DHCanary. Everything is obviously going to vary from circuit to circuit, but I think when it's that close drivers will favour the three stop strategy because it means that in theory they have less overtaking to do. I think Montreal was a three stop race so that gives an idea of how hectic it will be. I don't think the unpredictability will detract too much from the integrity of competition either, because Hamilton was the best driver that day and got the win. I'm looking forward to it. 13 days!!
