I thought you were talking about how many possible runners Gary, not who will win. The Fly wins, job done
I've just watched Simonsig's replays for his two hurdles this season, plus his Champion Point-to-Point Bumper win. This horse is a machine. Of that I am in little doubt. I just wish I knew 100% which race he was going for at Cheltenham because I am mad keen to get involved again at the current prices. He looks a proper star to me. I can't remember a horse travelling into races so easily. He is literally pulling upsides Fingal Bay before tiring late on. Really am excited about him, in case you hadn't noticed!
Zen - well i've gone in for the NEPTUNE coz some fella guaranteed he was going for that race ;-) i wont back him for the Supreme until they go NRNB
Guilty as charged! Henderson did say he was going Neptune but there are a lot of people now saying he should go for the Supreme. We will see. I've backed him for the Neptune and, like you, I'll try and wait until NRNB or other developments for the Supreme. I do think he's very exciting. No other novice hurdler has really got me excited but he has.
Morning all, only 2 bookies now holding evens for Quevega. Some as short as 8/11 now so start emptying those piggy banks if you want to grab last chance of evens.
don - I snaffled the last of the 5/4 on Friday with Tote, happy with what I've got down. I can see there being so many combination doubles/trebles placed this year involving Big Bucks, Quevega, Sizing Europe and Hurricane Fly....
QMCC - Hold Fast - 16/1 NRNB This race is really fascinating me, I still have doubts about the form of the top two from yesterdays Punchestowns Tied Cottage Chase and I think we have one horse in the field that could really be anything, and that horse for me is Hold Fast. I have doubts about Finians Rainbow going up the hill and I do think that the top two Irish horses are the ones to beat, I wouldn't be too sure of Big Zeb turning up (mooted issues yesterday). This leaves it wide open for an EW angle, and whilst horses like Somersby may get rerouted to the Ryanair, I do think Hold Fast is an intended runner for the maestro of Ditcheat. He runs next in the Game Spirit (or whatever its called these days) and a win in that will put him into single figures. NRNB as I am a coward and 25/1 is available without that caveat. 1pt EW @ 16/1
He might be a less likely runner but at the prices I would much rather side with Kauto Stone at 16/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. He was comprehensively beaten by Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek at Sandown but even that form would entitle him to place prospects in the Champion Chase. He was just clinging to his coat tails until making a few slight blunders close home but kept on well for a clear second. Nicholls has nothing for the Champion Chase, apart from Hold Fast who you have mentioned, and I just wonder whether he might switch Kauto Stone to the Champion Chase as a result. His form looks pretty strong this year and he is entitled to improve. Somersby is also another doubtful runner but of interest at 10/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. He might not have much of a chance at beating Sizing Europe on last season's evidence but he has already beaten the 2nd favourite Finian's Rainbow this season who is 11/2 with Ladbrokes. I don't think there was any fluke about that and could see him running a place in this if allowed to take his chance, purely because of the weakness of the rest of the field. It could be argued that both horses will be seen to better effect over further but if Finian's Rainbow and Sizing Europe set a good gallop up front then they will get the strong pace that they need. Both horses would need to put in exemplary rounds of jumping because neither has the pace to make up ground lost at the fences. However, both are quality animals and capable of getting involved if they were to take their chance. I should say that neither is a bet for me at this stage but I would prefer both to Hold Fast. Hold Fast has the potential but appears overhyped on the back of winning the same handicap that Master Minded did. He beat All For Free that day who has subsequently disappointed. He obviously has the scope to improve but he needs to improve a lot to be anywhere near getting involved in the Champion Chase. My argument in favour of the bet would be that he will test his chances in the Game Spirit. If he were to win that then his price would obviously shorten meaning you have a 'value' voucher. If he loses then he isn't worth his place in the field so you get your money back.
100% understandable. I suppose my point is that the bet is a good one but that I expect you to be collecting your stake rather than winnings if that makes sense.
Hold Fast I know this forum is all about opinions and I usually respect yours Nass but seriously Hold Fast win a champion chase The horse is slow and well below the class required, could start now
Nicholls said today: "He's entered for the Champion Chase and for the Grand Annual and I suspect we'll end up going the handicap route. We'll see what happens." It looks unlikely. However, RV, I don't think you can say it is a bad bet. I think Nass is in a 'no lose' position. If Hold Fast does win, then he will run and the price shortens, if he loses then the price lengthens and he gets his money back. Simple as that. I think it will be the latter, but that does not mean the bet is a bad one because the NRNB element is key.
