Latest bet added to the collection: Billys offering 5/2 about 11 or less runners turning up for the Champion Hurdle, having investigated and checked up I make it 8 or 9 runners!! Leaving 2 plodders to run for the 'day out' and that is not even taking into consideration the one that will get withdrawn or injured Looks a very nice bet again, took 100/30 before but surely this should be Evens at best!!
Are they pricing up the number of Arkle runners ? This is a race that usually cuts up and given the quality in the race this year it could be that only 10 stand their ground...
I am not sure whether I am hoping this happens or not but I am worried that I might have shot myself (and everyone else) in the foot. After Henderson said Simonsig was almost certain to run in the Neptune, I spouted forth back at him about why he should run him in the Supreme instead. I doubt very much my ill-informed rubbish has influenced him greatly (more likely not at all) but it just might have got him thinking. It does appear that the Supreme idea seems to be taking hold, certainly in areas of the media, and possibly in Henderson's thinking. The Racing UK Half Term report suggested that the Supreme was his for the taking, and I agree. However, the suggestion was that the 2m Championship was his more likely target, in direct contradiction to what I was told a few weeks back. I know that I am not ill-informed because mine came from the trainers mouth so this leaves two options. Either they are ill-informed, and for such an organisation, this seems unlikely, or they are as informed as I was but Henderson is starting to change his mind (or at least give the Supreme stronger consideration). Similarly I am currently listening to the Official Festival Podcast and they suggest the same. It might just be that Henderson is starting to come round to the idea. I understand that the Dovecote is his next intended target which would further suggest that the Supreme is under strong consideration if nothing else. I suppose how he gets on there and what Barry Geraghty says will determine where he goes. The direction of Henderson's other Festival arrows might also have a say but I would be confident in saying that Simonsig sits pretty at the top of their novice hurdle pecking order. To be honest I think he is an outstanding price for both races and am absolutely chomping at the bit to back him again for either race. As suggested I have backed him for the Neptune which will be a superb bet if he runs. If he doesn't I think we can be confident of recouping in the Supreme (a race I fancy him more strongly for) where I would make him a very confident selection. They just reeked of confidence about him at Seven Barrows. Nothing silly or over the top but the whole place just stank of it. They think he is the real deal. I sort of hope he runs in the Supreme because there appears much less to beat (no Fingal Bay and no Boston Bob for starters). However, I also hope that I haven't done everybody's dough with duff information! In my defence I can only pass on what I am told and if you have done your money you can rest safe in the knowledge that the (ill-) informer has done his too! He is a bet in either race so I await news eagerly. Very rarely do you get a horse at such a price with such a chance. Hope he doesn't disappoint now.
I could see it being even less than that. I see the following as 'definites': Sprinter Sacre Peddlers Cross Al Ferof Cue Card Menorah Then the following would be 'possibles': Blackstairmountain For Non Stop Kid Cassidy Shot From The Hip Plus a few others . . . It would look to be 10 at most. I think this will be ideal for Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof. Cue Card will want to lead and Sprinter Sacre will have little cover to keep him off the front. Kid Cassidy would also be prominent if taking his chance. That means a flat out gallop and that Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross will not need to force their own pace. I would think it could just fall into their laps with Peddlers Cross remaining my selection to come out on top.
Supreme Novices. Cinders & Ashes. Has strolled home in all his hurdle races. 12/1 Paddy Power Arkle. Cue Card still looks the most reliable Each way bet. 9/1 Paddy Power. RSA Join Together Has won his last two over the Cheltenham course and ran away from his hurdles' conqueror, Mossley. 10/1 Paddy Power Albert Bartlett Boston Bob He may go for the Neptune but he'll excel if he steps up to 3 miles 6/1 Coral Triumph. Sadler's Risk Impressive on his debut, this classy ex flat horse ticks all the boxes. 8/1 Coral Best bet at the price....Sadler's Risk @ 8/1. Best value..................Cinders And Ashes @12/1 Each Way Speculative Bet...........£1.00 Each way Lucky 31 = £62.00 staked.
''Speculative Bet...........£1.00 Each way Lucky 31 = £62.00 staked'' I always recommend that everyone should have bets like this - the win acca pays almost 100 grand and if just 3 of them get placed you've pretty much coverd your outlay. You just never know at Cheltenham and if you're not desperate for £62 find five like Tam, it really could change your life. Last year had Captain Chris gone for the Jewson instead of the Arkle (as Hobbs had said for weeks leading up to the Festival) I would have picked up an extra £4k (Big Bucks, Quevega and Bensalem in a yankee).
Hi Tam, give me a shout when it happens, I'll help ! Also, I noticed Baldy was still going 5/4 Quevega so I've pressed this morning, even 5 weeks away (what is it Wooly, 39 days ?) she should be no bigger than 4/5, the fact she can still be backed at odds against is insane. VLV is likely to miss Cheltenham and even is she stands her ground Quevega is a stone better, take VLV out the race and she'll be facing handicappers - it's frightening how easy she could win this by. 5/4, climb in....
Tam - I'm all in that double already, 6/4 Quevega 4/7 Bucks with Hills a few weeks ago, if it comes in I won't be having a losing Cheltenham ! No need for me to press the double but I will keep pressing Quevega all the time she's odds against, Bucks runs Thursday so I can still back him single if Quevega somehow finds a way to lose.
5/4 now all gone on Quevega. Ploughed a bit more on before the price went! Been brain washed by Grizz!! Best now 11/10 with sporting bet. Everyone else evens so that won't be around for long.
Couldn't place this before today for cash flow reasons: 5pts WIN DOUBLE Quevega EVS / Big Bucks 1-2 Returns me 15pts
Just on a side note...Cue Card 8/1 on Betfair for The Arkle. What mental punters have taken that? I love the horse but have they not seen the opposition?! ps will add ur double up soon oddy!
Hope you are well Toppy. Had a stock market disaster this week so hoping for a big rebound in the coming days. All the stock I previously held is rocketing (Sky Deutschland I sold at a big loss for 1,37 in December and it's up at 2.40 today - really kicking myself )
Don, i believe the following mate, hurricane fly, grandouet, zarkandar, binocular, oscars well, brampour, rock on ruby, overturn, so young plus 2 no hopers lol i believe oscar whiskey and thousand stars are stayers bound and i cannot see Mr Nicholls running all 3 in this race, unaccompanied and mikael daggers are not running. also there will be one big withdrawn horse, always is so this gives us an extra horse. Looks a good bet to me but i am a positive thinker lol Get on 15/8 Man United to destroy Chelski at the weekend without Cole and TERRY
Celestial Halo is going to run as well I think GDC . Thousand Stars could still run in the CH as well. Starluck will run if he gets a trial in to him and Clerks Choice is probably the other non hoper
Nicholls may well run Celestial Halo, if he does he will noy run 3 others IMO. Thousand Stars will only run here if Hurricane Fly gets injured, his Betfair price confirms that, Starluck could start now and still not win LOL and Clerks Choice could still go and the best looks good to me but each to their own
I agree about the bet GDC just pointing out some of the runners that could still go Starluck and Clerks Choice are the two no hopers I didn't think So Young would run here tbh he has nowhere near enough pace for a top 2m race- he is good but will be well outpaced imo needs 2m4f-3m
