The Arkle Challenge Trophy - Tuesday 13th March

This is almost exactly the reply I was just about to write. So yeah. What he said.

 

Perhaps my assessment was a little harsh Oddy.He is obviously decent.

I'm just of the opinion that none of them are out of the very top drawer as chasers as a lot of people would have us believe.

 

I think Sprinter Sacre would have a chance in the QM but I'd expect him to line up here and win pretty convincingly with Peddlers Cross getting closer than the last day but not close enough in second.

 

Heard worse predictions Beefy.

 

Others of mine perhaps?!

 

Peddlers for me. Arkle winners stay further than 2 miles - look at how CC has been campaigned this season - and I think he ran a huge race to run 2nd and so close to the fly last year so goes round this track.

 

With Sanctuaire hopefully entering the fray this adds more to this already fascinating race! His owner loves having runners here, more than Aintree and Punchestown so I can see Mr Nicholls getting out voted! With this in mind i believe it makes Sprinter Sacres chances even more less as Sanctuaire will without doubt take him on up front. This of course plays into the hands of both Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross. Which one wins is a mighty tough call but at this moment in time it must be Al Ferof as his last run was awesome taking into account he was not yet 100 per cent fit what a race in prospect

 

Cue Card may be remembered by some punters as one of the most unnecessarily over-hyped horses heading into the Cheltenham Festival, but how times change in 12 months.

In March last year, Cue Card ensured punters got off to the worst start at the Cheltenham Festival, being sent off the heavily-backed 7/4 favourite to win the opening event of the meeting, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

However, he never truly looked like winning and eventually came home fourth behind Al Ferof.

He has since been stepped up from hurdles to fences and heads to the upcoming Cheltenham Festival as a seriously forgotten horse.

Cue Card has slowly been backed into 8/1 in the Cheltenham odds to win the Arkle Chase and is likely to have slipped under the radar of many punters.

Having opened his chase campaign with a victory in Grade Three company, he was travelling strongly in a race where he was conceding weight to Grands Crus when unseating Joe Tizzard.

Cue Card has run a further twice since, being mugged on the line when giving weight to Bobs Worth over an extended 2m4f and then back over 2m on his latest start, comfortably beat For Non Stop.

This form is particularly noteworthy as again he was giving weight to the same For Non Stop who ran fellow Arkle contender Al Ferof much closer at Sandown in December when the pair clashed on level weights.

If nothing else, Cue Card looks decent each-way value in the Arkle, especially if benefiting from a soft lead in front where he can dictate the pace.

Cue Card will obviously face a stern test from Sprinter Sacre, who has done little wrong so far and has been heavily praised by jockey Barry Geraghty.

But only one favourite since 1995 has won the Arkle and as Cue Card has previously proved, hype horses heading into Cheltenham can disappoint in the biggest races.

Sprinter Sacre is 9/4 in the Cheltenham betting to win the Arkle, with Peddlers Cross 7/2 and Al Ferof 4/1, but this pair both have things to prove and the former in particular does not have the chase form behind him that puts him on par with Cue Card.

 

Sprinter Sacre might just be every bit as special as he looked around Kempton, and Barry Geraghty is seriously excited.

Peddlers Cross is a serious animal around Cheltenham (galloped on like a ****ing train behind the Fly last year) and was never really in the race on Boxing Day. Barring that first fence error at Kempton, he had barely touched a twig. The McCain yard were in desperate form over christmas and I expect them to be firing on full cylinders for the festival this year and don't be surprised to see them land a surprise few wins, especially in handicaps.

Al Ferof has jumped pretty well and will stay best of all. But will he live with the electric pace and jumping of Sprinter Sacre? He literally has to win this the same way as he won the Supreme Novice- bollock up that hill like a steam train and ping the last for the real momentum. However, it is most notable that Ruby Walsh sees this fella as his 2012 King George horse. Does that sound an Arkle winner?

Cue Card looks awkward under pressure and whilst his natural exuberance will see him take them on from the front, he won't see the race out well enough. If he jumped as well as Sprinter Sacre, he'd go very very close. But the Tizzards don't seem to see any issues with his jumping, because they are a pair of absolute numpties. If I had a few million in the bank I'd offer the Tizzards £100k and send him to Paul Nicholls.

Peddlers will bounce back with a massive race but I can't be having that price. 13/2 and you're on, if anyone wants to lay that against me. Al Ferof will make the frame but I see it being a gallop to the line between Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross.

Sanctuaire could be a surprise package, but at the same time he could wonder off to the pub before the race- he is that sort of character.

 

I cannot agree with this. I, as many others do, think this is a vintage renewal of the Arkle. All Al Ferof did in the Victor Chandler was show that he was a very good novice who is crying out for further. Somersby and Finian's Rainbow have finished 2nd in the past two Arkles so I think the very fact that he was not able to beat them tells you that he does not have what it takes at 2m to win such a strong renewal of this race.

Yes and no. He was a very good hurdler, and was the only horse last season to give Hurricane Fly anything like a race. He jumped very well on both starts at Bangor, and his second performance there in particular was very impressive. He gave 10lbs and an easy beating to a very good horse in Minella Class. The fact that it was at Bangor means it has been a little overlooked in my opinion. Obviously things went tits up at Kempton where everything that could have gone wrong did. I am prepared to forgive him that effort, especially with valid explanations arising subsequently and the fact that he never looked happy at all, and judge him on the potential that he had shown previously, and that was that he had every chance of being as good over fences as he was over hurdles.

To a certain extent yes. However, whichever way you look at it, it was an immensely impressive performance. There can be little doubt that Henderson/Geraghty think that Sprinter Sacre is superior to Finian's Rainbow. Therefore, the fact that Al Ferof was unable to beat the latter suggests that he will face a tough ask to beat the former. He might still be unproven but he has taken to chasing like a duck to water and if he comes up the hill with the benefit of another year on his back (still a big doubt for me) then he will be a tough nut to crack.

I think their form level is broadly similar to be honest but the crucial element for me is that both Al Ferof and Cue Card have been exposed far more over fences than the first two named. Peddlers Cross and Sprinter Sacre have given their best efforts hard on the bridle, and still recorded big ratings and fast times. Both of them have the potential to far exceed anything they have already achieved. Al Ferof ran as well as he could in the Victor Chandler which, to me at least, showed he was short of the top level over 2m. He will no doubt be better at Cheltenham on good ground in a fast run race, but so will Peddlers Cross.

As for Al Ferof coming up the hill the strongest, he might well be stronger than Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card, both of whom were weak in the Supreme last year, but Peddlers Cross will be finishing just as strongly.

That is what leads me to side with my original pick for the race in Peddlers Cross. His jumping was exemplary on his first two starts, and the merit of his second win has been overlooked by many. If you can forgive his Kempton defeat, which I can (especially with the excuses), then he is a massive danger. Sprinter Sacre could be anything and that anything could well be exceptional. However, the hill remains a concern for me and that would be enough to put me off at a short price. Al Ferof looks far more exposed at 2m than those two and looks frankly not good enough at 2m to win such a vintage Arkle. Cue Card doesn't jump well enough for me and his resolution in a finish must be at least questionable. He doesn't appear to find a lot off the bridle and there is no way he can beat a field this good on the bridle.

 

Yes. I agree it will take a perfect ride from Ruby, but I can't help but think that Kempton is so much gentler than Cheltenham, that a) Sprinter Sacre will need to show as yet unproved stamina to win and b) the Arkle is a passable trial for the King George.

Ok, I have no idea what the stats are on that one, and I guess they're against me on this, but I would guess that 2m at Cheltenham is not that far off 3m at Kempton in terms of stamina-testing, and as Al Ferof showed in the Supreme, he has the stamina to absolutely be flying coming up the Cheltenham hill.

I don't think Al Ferof is an unreasonable shout for either. I'd rather back him for the Arkle than KG this year, but I still think he could come good here.

Wouldn't like to predict the result, I'm just saying Al Ferof looks a better contender than Cue Card for me.

 

The front 3 in the market look to have a solid chance of filling those positions, in whichever order.

 

agree with you wholey there toppy

 

agree with you wholey there toppy, just saying the pressure may be off Cue Card ublike last year and recently and with so many other big names and big pressure and maybe worth an e/w

 

Agree with that comment Toppy lad BUT I have a feeling Sprinter Sacre will be third!! Fade away once the pressure is applied but also can fully understand why people believe he will be too far clear for the other 2 to catch him, very intriguing race, come on Al Ferof, you know you can do it

 

Yes, you have it spot on here.

In my opinion the fact that it was an 'all-age Grade 1 off level weights' is utterly irrelevant. I am far more concerned with the horses that he beat, or rather those that he didn't beat. If he was a genuine contender to win the Arkle this year I would have expected him to win that race. Somersby has been consistently exposed at the top level and Finian's Rainbow has done nothing to suggest that he is anything special either. Neither could win their own renewals of the Arkle so why should Al Ferof, a convincingly beaten 3rd with no excuses, be able to win a vintage renewal such as this?

The whole argument of it being the best form because it was in open company doesn't stick with me at all. Exactly the same comment was applied to Cue Card's 2nd in the International Hurdle last year. However, as I said about that race too, it is the horses who they beat, or don't beat, and not the fact that it is an open race which are important. I didn't rate Menorah as a genuine Champion contender, and always fancied Silviniaco Conti as a 3m staying chaser in the making. The fact that the latter was so close giving 4lbs to his rivals in a 2m hurdle race told me the form was overrated. The exact same logic applies to the Victor Chandler. Just because it is an open race does not make it good form.

I believe, though forgive me if I'm wrong, that you were a fully paid up member of the "Master Minded has zero chance in the King George Club"? You must therefore believe that Master Minded, for all his early brilliance, has been overrated for a couple of seasons. That means that Somersby is overrated (notice that all his career high ratings come against Master Minded). His form suggests (to me at least) that he is a 160 horse, Finian's Rainbow was rated 157 going into the Victor Chandler, and I reckoned Al Ferof was at about 153 (I think, see Arkle thread for reasoning). By my thinking, they have all run virtually exactly to their marks which all fits in very nicely indeed.

My logic against Al Ferof is that Master Minded is overrated so therefore Somersby is overrated and therefore Al Ferof's Victor Chandler 3rd is overrated.

I don't think his form is good enough to win this Arkle as it stands but, more importantly, I don't think he is capable of improving greatly on what he has already shown at 2m. I am sure he'll improve when he gets his chance upped in trip but he was flat to the boards the whole way in the Victor Chandler and I think it will be the same story in the Arkle. In contrast, I think both Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross are clearly capable of better than they have already shown at 2m. Both have recorded their best chase performances when winning easily, whereas Al Ferof recorded his when beaten and ridden right out.

Al Ferof has shown his hand, I don't think the hand he has shown is good enough and I don't think he is capable of much better at the trip.

Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross have not shown their hand yet, I also think their form is as good as Al Ferof (OR have them on 160, 160 and 161), and both look capable of much better than they have currently shown.

Therefore, I oppose Al Ferof and, on the basis of price and lingering doubts about the hill, come down in favour of Peddlers Cross over Sprinter Sacre.

 

I will agree that his form has more 'substance' to it but I stand by my comment that he is exposed (at least compared to the other two anyway) at 2m over fences. He might improve a little from Ascot, and I expect he will, but he doesn't have anything like enough scope for improvement at the trip as he will need in my opinion. Every single yard of the Victor Chandler he was crying out for a trip.

Sprinter Sacre's times have also been very fast. Peddlers Cross was also very fast at Bangor when beating Minella Class. And both of those performances were achieved on the bridle.

I apologise, I was a fully paid up member of the 'Master Minded has zero chance in the King George' club because he wouldn't stay and he wasn't good enough even if he did.

We will have to agree to disagree on this one Oddy. We will see in March.