I'm a very big fan of Quevega The Don. I think she's a cert but the PP offer only encompassed the big 4 and I wanted to add Kauto Star in there too, hence the two bets. On Oddschecker if you click on the little '+' sign by the horses name (left hand side) then that will add them to your 'betslip' if you like. Do the same with all your other selections and then the best accumulator odds will be calculated for you. Best Odds for Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Long Run are 66.34/1 with William Hill. And best odds for Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's and Kauto are 103.90/1 with Sportingbet. I wouldn't put you off them at all. Indeed I might even follow you in as it were!
Also PP now 25/1 about the 4 reigning champs. Shortening all the while. The best accumulator price is 29.48/1 with William Hill. Paddy Power go 27.55/1 so why you would now back the supposed 'special' is beyond me!
Cheers for that Zen, most appreciated. I reckon those are both worth a cheeky bet. Looks very attractive at the odds. Not often you look at a 65-1 5 fold and think yes, that really could happen quite easily. Could be worth waiting for Sizing Europe after Punchestown as has been discussed on here although all the others are shortening all the time!! Typical of PP to have a special which isnt so special!!
I was a 'special' when they first did it but I think they might have taken a bit more than they would have liked!! It all seems too easy. I'm sure we'll be left with egg on our faces come March. Bookies will take a proper battering if it comes in though. I should think there are a good few holding similar vouchers.
Yes, very much so. Alot of BB, HF and Quevega vouchers around. If one of those gets beat bookies will be laughing. If not they will take an absolute battering. Whats the best odds on that at the moment? Think ive got a big one on that at 11s or something when HF was far bigger. The others are less certain but well worth a go for me. Cant split LR / KS myself so makes sense to cover both.
Best odds on the Hurricane Fly, Quevega and Big Buck's treble is 6.3/1 with Sportingbet. Your 11/1 looks pretty decent.
Hills have Quevega 5/4 which is insane - when VLV and Unaccompanied pull out the Mares race she'll be 1/2. My advice is if punting now on any horse at Cheltenham just double it with Quevega at the prices - Long Run becomes a 6/1 shot, Kauto a 10/1 shot, Bobs Worth 12/1, Hurricane Fly 9/4, Hold On Julio 16/1 etc etc etc. She is an absolute certainty, use her as a price booster for your other selections.....
Grizz, will they both definately pull out in your opinion? What races would they go for instead? I assume you think there is no danger at all (as i do) for her to go for the WH? What about if BB got njured?! Betfair is 6/5 so not sure how long 5/4 will be around (also with Tote and Betfred). Back to lay in size possibly?
Unaccompanied will surely go for the Champion Hurdle and is not good enough to beat Quevega anyway. Not sure about Voler La Vedette but I would have though she might not come over. Good ground and 2m4f might be a touch on the sharp side for her . . . ? Anyway the important thing is that Quevega is better than both of them anyway. 2m4f and good ground are ideal for her, even though she stays further, and it probably isn't for the two main dangers. Next best are Kentford Grey Lady (too slow), Alasi (more likely to go for alternative targets), Violin Davis (not good enough). If the race does cut up, as you might expect it to, then Quevega is more like a 1/3 shot. To change tack slightly, is Ruby Walsh a good bet for top jockey at 5/6? I don't think you could back it now because it's unlikely to shorten a great deal between now and the Festival. However, he has Hurricane Fly, Quevega and Big Buck's to look forward to which will be 3 winners in many peoples' eyes. That might be enough on it's own but he has plenty of other strong chances too. Next best is Geraghty at 3/1 but he wouldn't have any 'bankers'. Walsh is riding them all!
Unaccompanied will go for the Champion hurdle and I got told a while back that VLV isn't certain to make Cheltenham, they don't think she travels well/gets the track. As Zen says, she's got plenty in hand on them both anyway, Unaccompanied isn't guaranteed to stay 2m4f and VLV has taken on Quevage twice and only seen her backside - she'll be odds on on form alone, take away one or both of her main rivals then what price does she become ? As for Ruby top jock at 4/5 he should be 1/3, Big Bucks, Quevega and now even Huricane Fly appear to be gimme's, plus he'll have the best of Mullins and Nicholls horses in the novice events and handicaps, Ruby had five winners last year and has won it four years running, there really are no dangers....
I agree entirely which is why im so surprised the price of Quevega vs corresponding prices for BB and HF? Can anyone explain why? Surely there is a reason the bookies are holding strong? Is it concerns as she never has a prep race? Agreed that RW looks like a good bet. As you say, no point putting in on yet given risks of injury and bans. Price probably wont move much.
It's a shame you can't acca the Quevega, Big Buck and Walsh top pilot treble Only reason Quevega is 5/4 is they think Unaccompanied and VLV may take her on, even if they do her form makes her an odds on shot so the price is senseless. There are no fears of a lack of prep run (even less after the Flys reappearance on Sunday) - they know she has 2 maybe 3 races a year on Spring ground and that's it, she could end up with half a dozen of these festival Mares races. Decs are on the Festival thread - PN is updating as and when
Have just done the acccy everyone seems to be doing for the £8.90 that was on the end of my balance Stake £8.90 Sizing Europe @ 2/1 Win or E/W Queen Mother Champion Chase Pending Big Bucks @ 4/7 Win or E/W World Hurdle Pending Long Run @ 9/4 Win or E/W Cheltenham Gold Cup Pending Hurricane Fly @ 4/5 Win or E/W Champion Hurdle Pending Potential Returns £245.45 Not a bad bet imo decent potential returns for the stake on 4 very solid favs
Good stuff RV, no Quevega in there to boost it a bit!! If those faves all win (plus quevega) i dont see any way the bookies will escape the festival without anything other than a huge loss.
Gents, I don't want to be the one to put a downer on it, however how often do all the jollies win the Championship races?
Very rarely. All seems too simple doesn't it?! On a side note, Weld now saying that Unaccompanied is likely to miss Cheltenham and go to Punchestown instead.
Nass is right, the more you multiply your bets the more chance of one letting you down. Who hasn't had a 6 team football acca only for the 1/2 shot to draw at home to some pile of **** ? This acca was 66/1 a few weeks ago, it was 50/1 before last Sunday, at those prices I think it was value, but now it equates to around 26/1 and you can make your own minds up whether this still remains value. Long Run hasn't jumped a fence or won a race this season, 9/4 for the blue ribband therefore seems short, and there will always be a question mark over Hurricance Fly until he's seen cantering to the start. For £8.90 I doubt RV will be having nightmares about injury scares and racing plans, it's a nice interest bet with a decent potential return, i won't be having the same bet myself though, the horse who I think is more bombproof than any of those is Quevega and is still available at 5/4, chuck her in any acca and increase your return by 125% would be my advice....
Hurricane Fly - one win doesn't prove that he isn't fragile, if he lines up he will have a grand chance. At odds on I can let him line up before thinking about dabbling, especially as we might see the second coming of Pegasus this weekend Sizing Europe - I think he will drift if he loses to Big Zeb in Ireland, at the minute I think he is the likely winner, but I still have a few doubts. Long Run - Needs to jump better than he has so far. Certainly no Certainty, especially with Kauto Star in opposition. Big Bucks - He turns up and he wins, unless he doesn't jump or Ruby chucks his whip away. Still at 4/7 he is short enough.
