3.20 Leopardstown The Hard Hat 20/1 My old friend The Hard Hat is out again tomorrow and is stepped up into a Grade A Chase for the first time after running into a very well handicapped rival earlier in the month over 3m1f at Gowran Park. He gets in off a very light 9-11 after being raised 1lb to 121 after his 3rd LTO but I still think his handicap mark is well within his range after winning off 114 in November over 2m6f. The 2m5f may be just about on the sharp side but it should just be long enough for him. Despite winning on Heavy ground before, I think he'll appreciate the yielding ground a bit better tomorrow. Regular jockey Robbie Power can't make the weight so D J Casey takes the ride and he certainly looks a decent jockey booking as he is one of the best around who can get down to this weight and is clearly riding well judged on his success with On His Own yesterday. Although trainer Colm Murphy hasn't had a winner in 2012 yet, his horses have been running well enough so that isn't a concern for me. Murphy and Casey have had 1 win from 4 rides when teaming up together. With 22 runners its not a race to invest in heavily, but I am convinced this mark is not beyond The Hard Hat and hopefully he can put up a decent display tomorrow. He owes me absolutely nothing at this stage but I would love nothing more than for him to land this race and think he is capable of doing so.
2.45 Leopardstown Cothrom Na Feinne 33/1 Looks very overpriced to me considering he only finished 0.75L behind tomorrow favourite Scottish Boogie over C+D last month at the Leopadstown Christmas Festival. This Desmond McDonogh 7 year old gelding is a former Jim Bolger trained horse and it is interesting that Bolger's wife has retained ownership of him which indicates they obviously thought he was pretty talented. After a rather inauspicious start to his career with McDonogh, Cothrom Na Feinne turned the corner in a big way on his handicap debut over a mark of 94 when landing a 2m hurdle a Ballinrobe in May 2010 by 7L. Racing prominently throughout, Cothrom Na Feinne took up the running 5 from home and put the race to bed in a matter of strides with a very nice turn of pace and was very much so eased at the finish. The form of that race has worked out very nicely with the 2nd Riverscape, who was rated 97 that day, winning 4 times since including off a mark of 120 by 5L. He was last seen winning a claimer for Gordon Elliot in September and is now rated 132 over hurdles. After winning on his handicap debut, Cothrom Na Feinne was raised 12lb to a mark of 108 but showed he was still very well handicapped when winning on his next start a month later by 6L. It was very much a case of Deja Vu as Cothrom Na Feinne took up the running before using his pace to kill of the race before being eased to land a comfortable success. The form of that race looks good too with the 2nd Wikaala, who was rated 112 that day, winning off a 10lb higher mark on his next start and he is now rated 125 over hurdles (highest 130) which again demonstrates the strength of Cothrom Na Feinne's success. For one reason or another, possibly injury, Cothrom Na Feinne ended up spending 17 months on the sideline before making his reappearance off a mark of 120 at Down Royal in November. He was absolutely awful that day finishing tailed off but as he was ridden towards the back as opposed to his normally prominent tactics and its clear and understandable he needed the run. On his last start he showed he still possessed at least some of his old ability when finishing a 4L beaten 4th over C+D at the Leopardstown festival last month. Off a mark of 118, Cothrom Na Feinne reverted to front running tactics and put up a much better showing. After flattening 3 out, Cothrom Na Feinne was lying 2nd after just getting overtaken for the lead when making a mistake at the final flight before he he started paddling and was overtaken by 2 other rivals to finish 4th. Its very interesting to notice that tomorrows likely favourite Scottish Boogie only finished 0.75L in front of my selection and is 1lb worse off at the weights so I don't really understand the ridiculous difference in price (although Scottish Boogie should have probably been produced sooner the last day). Tomorrow Cothrom Na Feinne has been risen 1lb to a mark of 119 but based on his win off 108 and his effort LTO I don't think this handicap mark is beyond him. He made a couple of mistakes the last day at vital stages which would have knocked a bit out of him but it was a very encouraging effort on his 2nd start after such a long absence and on the basis of how badly he needed his reappearance run he should strip fitter and come on again after his last effort. Tom Doyle is a very encouraging and interesting jockey booking who makes his debut for the small McDonogh stable as regular jockey John Cullen can't make the 10-4 weight. I'm slightly concerned about the yielding ground tomorrow as his wins came on good and good to firm but his effort the last day was on good to yielding so it may not be too much of an issue, especially at the price. He's stepped up into a Grade B hurlde for the first time and its clearly his toughest task to date but if the current favourite sets the bar then surely on the basis of their meeting LTO then this gelding surely can't be too outclassed. He was 2nd reserve in the Galway Hurdle but didn't get in which clearly shows that connections think a fair deal about him and he is my horse to follow for a small trainer this season Although its going to be very hard to get his way up front in this 30 runner field, I think he is potentially very well handicapped and if improving for his last run I can see no reason why Cothrom Na Feinne can't get close to winning this tomorrow
3.35 Lingfield Sunset Kitty 8/1 Really like the look of Sunset Kitty if she appreciates the step up to 10f for the first time in this valuable Class 2 race. This 5 year old joined the Mike Murphy yard from Walter Swinburn who unfortunately ceased training in October of this year. After making her debut back in September of last year, Sunset Kitty put in her first decent effort on her 2nd start when finishing a decent 1.5L beaten 3rd to Zip Lock at Kempton over 7f. On her 3rd start again at the same track, she finished a well beaten 2nd to Entitled who has now developed into being a talented 5 year old finishing a short head 2nd in a Class 3 event off a mark of 86. This gave her a handicap rating of 67 and after an ok debut in this sphere she won on her 2nd handicap start impressively off the same mark in December 2010 at Wolverhampton over 7f. Sunset Kitty was dropped in the midfield on the rail and after being scrubbed along from a few furlongs out she finally got the hang of things in the final furlong to win going away by 2.75L. The 2nd that day was Lockantanks, racing off 68 that day, who has since progressed leaps and bounds similarly to Sunset Kitty to win 4 times subsequently including off a mark of 89 and he was last seen coming a 1L beaten 4th in a Class 2 last week which solidifies the form. After a 4 month break and after being raised 5lb for that success, Sunset Kitty disappointed on her reappearance run in March of this year when finishing a 4L beaten 4th when sent off favourite. She travelled pretty nicely but didn’t find much and evidently needed the reappearance run, but as this is her only effort after a break I am willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, especially at the price. After a 3 week break she showed that she was much fitter for the run when she was beaten by a short head at Kempton in April off a mark of 73 in a first time visor. Although the form of that race isn’t great, it showed that she can run well at the track which is important for today. On her next start she was a little disappointing wearing a visor for the 2nd time when she was beaten by 2L in 3rd off the same mark when sent off favourite at Kempton but the form of that race has worked out very nicely. The winner Saddler’s Bend, off a mark of 66 that day, subsequently won her next 3 starts (all on turf) and she subsequently competed in a Group 3 race (finished last) but is now rated 90 on the turf. The 2nd Russian Rave has since won off a 2lb higher mark and is now rated 10lb higher than that day (all subsequent starts on turf) and the 4th has since won a race of similar level. This is rock solid form and it has ended up being just a very strong race. After a month break, Sunset Kitty returned to winning ways when upped to a mile for the first time when landing a Class 5 event at Lingfield back in May. After breaking well, she was restrained to sit in about 5th position on the rail off a steady pace and the extra furlong really helped her as she got up to win by a length. The form of that race isn’t great although the 4th, 5th and 6th have won at lower or similar levels subsequently and she appeared to do all that was required that day and may have had a bit more in hand. Sunset Kitty won her next start also when raised 5lb to a mark of 79 when successful on her turf debut on GF ground at Doncaster in a 8f Class 4 event in June, again under Kirby. In the straight mile Sunset Kitty adopted her typical tactics of sitting just behind the pace and she hit the front about 1f out and battled gamely to win by 0.75L. The form of that race again looks strong with the 2nd Dazeen winning off a 3lb higher mark subsequently, the 3rd San Cassiano winning twice subsequently including impressively off a 4lb higher mark and the 4th and 5th winning off the same mark after this. Once again its rock solid form and demonstrates there was no fluke about her wins. 15 days after her triumph, Sunset Kitty put in a decent effort to finish a good 3L beaten 3rd in a 6 runner affair at Newmarket on GS off her current mark of 84. She tracked the 2 horses out in front but couldn’t close and maintained her finishing position all the way to the line. Although she was hardly miles behind, after looking at the other races that day there seems a clear bias to horses that were prominent or made all so it seemed on that day nothing from off the pace was getting too near at the finish. Regardless, the form of that race is still very strong. The 2nd Bonnie Brae has subsequently won twice since, including off a 9lb higher mark in a Class 2 race beating a subsequent Listed winner into 2nd and is now rated 15lb higher. The 4th Tameen has won twice since, including off a 2lb higher mark by 8L in a similar event so its very strong form again. On her last start for Walter Swinburn, Sunset Kitty was a bit disappointing as she finished a well beaten but eased 9th at Ascot in August. Although she looked beaten at the time, Sunset Kitty was squeezed out of it and was allowed to come home in her own time. I’m willing to overlook this effort as she perhaps was fatigued after 7 runs in the space of 5 months but regardless it wasn’t the best effort. Sunset Kitty put in a very eye catching debut run for Mike Murphy when finishing a 3.5L beaten 3rd after a 127 absence back in September off a mark of 84 in a Class 4 at Kempton over 1m. After missing the break by at least 5L (hood removed late), Sunset Kitty had to sit at the back of the field but picked up really well to finish 3rd behind old advisory Lockantanks and it was a really encouraging effort. The form of that race looks strong with Lockantanks winning off a 6lb higher mark and finishing an excellent 1L 4th off a 10lb higher mark in a Class 2 on his last start. The 2nd that day Tarooq, who finished 1.5L in front of Sunset Kitty, came a 0.25L 2nd off a 2lb higher mark in the same Class 2 and considering she missed the break badly, her effort was excellent. LTO Sunset Kitty claimed a deserved success again in a Class 4 at Kempton over 1m when winning by a short head off the same mark of 84 2 weeks ago. She broke on terms the last day and took a midfield sit and after travelling extremely well she eventually got up in the shadow of the post to win under tomorrow's rider Shane Kelly. When push came to shove, she took a bit of time to get into top gear but when she did she just did enough to win. The form of that race again looks strong with the narrowly beaten 2nd Shifting Star winning off a 1lb higher mark on his next start. Tomorrow represents a significant step up in class from a Class 4 to a Class 2 but based on my own opinions of her ability and the form of her previous races I think she can certainly cope with the tougher opposition. She has been raised a very fair 3lb for her success to a mark of 87 which looks well within her abilities considering the form of her last two races. Although not guaranteed to stay, I think the decision to step up Sunset Kitty to 1m2f could be a very shrewd one. She was travelling better than anything LTO and took a while to get going and the extra distance should hopefully give her a bit more time to get into full gear. She ventures back to Lingfield where she has a record of 1 win from 2 so she clearly goes well here and has a good draw in stall 1 which should allow her to bag the rail. Trainer Mike Murphy has his small string in good nick with a couple of wins and places already this year and this is his only runner at a track where he boasts an impressive 38% strike rate and if coping with the step up in trip and class I think she could be very difficult to beat. 8/1 seems more than a fair price in this 8 runner handicap and if everything goes to plan hopefully she can land a 2nd consecutive success.
2.20 Doncaster - BIG EASY 3/1 Have been studying this race for the last 30 mins and just as I was thinking no bet until I got to the last horse BIG EASY and I am almost certain they have just been getting this one a handicap mark. A winner of 3 of his 5 starts on the flat Big Easy made his hurdling debut at Exeter for which he was sent off the 7/1 2nd fav behind the odds on Jump City. He started off up with the pace but gradually lost his position without Richard Johnson even asking him to keep up with the pace. He wasn't touched throughout and was allowed to finish in his own time. At the same track on his second start behind the impressive Knights Pass Big easy was never put in to the race by Giles Hawkins and only just before and after the last did he ask him to quicken, the horses response was to go past one horse and stay on towards the line for 5th place. On his third and latest start at Ffos Las he was up with the pace again early but once more lost his place and there was certainly no urgency from Richard Johnson to keep it and get involved in the race. He was pushed along hands and heels from the 2nd last and made up some nice ground without ever threatening to land a blow. Tomorrow he makes his handicap debut up in trip off a mark of 110 and I will be disappointed if he isn't good enough to win from his opening mark.
Just struck an interesting bet with Totesport - 16/1 on Grumeti to win the Champion Hurdle trial tomorrow and follow up in the real thing. I really like this fellow - a big, muscular, strong travelling type he is a bit like the Frankel of the juvenile hurdling division. He spredeagled a good field on debut and had them all well beaten last time at Newbury when very unluckily losing his footing after the second last. He looks an extremely talented animal and my first thought was to get on tonight for tomorrow's race BUT 13/8 tomorrow is probably fair but won't make me rich and he is already shortening for the Triumph (general 8/1 shot). I think he will be cut to clear favourite tomorrow if he wins well and that's what I'm counting on. OI RV Tidal Bay is one of my 10 to follow, watch it
Nass he could start now and find a way to get himself beat. Sorrry Odddy Captain Chris is a cert Pearl Swan at 10s or Baby Mix at 2-1 undecided which way to play in the triumph trial
Ok maybe I was waxing a bit lyrical (been drinking a very nice Sauvignon Blanc this early-evening ) but he is a lovely mover and a fine figure of a horse. I think he'll wipe the floor with them tomorrow.
Oddy, Your drink beats my four pints of "Sheep Dip" followed by some Sussex ale. That said, I still think your waxing of the lyric is a wee bit far fetched RV, Nicholls and Walsh> Ho Jo and anyone else He has the best form in the race, best trainer and best jockey. If only he could think about winning rather than finishing behind horses
AND I have Knight Pass in my 10 to follow - big chance off 135 tomorrow, he has really come on the last couple of months
Grumeti led 2 out but Hutchinson now asks for everything and look in behind Baby Mix is cantering under a very confident Paddy Brennan my prediciton for a Simon Holt commentary. Which will end in Baby Mix wins and looks a very exciting prospect. Nass he is 11 now he is not Kauto Star you know. You want a holt commentary on that race 4 out and Tidal Bay looks as if he has had enough and if he is not responding for Ruby Walsh there isn't much hope. OOOOOO Captain Chris is all class and enters the Gold Cup picture with a brilliant performance, CAPTAIN CHRIS wins the ARGENTO
I forgot that point lol- Diamond Harry wins the Argento (if he runs)- I will be backing him but will wait for the morning!
sweet Odddy I didn't want to say this on here but hey its my opinion, people may think I am daft but who cares I really fancy DYNASTE tomorrow. I love Big Bucks but he will get beat soon and I really did think Dynaste was awesome last time out for a long way. Think he would have come on a lot for it as well
