I doubt Bog Warrior will run, Flemenstar won't run because he's a poor traveller and Solwhit is as yet unseen. No idea when we see him. I just cannot see how Peddlers Cross' chase rating is overrated. I've already explained that it makes perfect sense, and that is taking a cautious view of the form. He was quite obviously below par at Kempton and I am sure that even the biggest fan of Sprinter Sacre can see that. I also fail to understand the obsession with the grade of the race. Surely the quality of the opposition is more important? For example, Al Ferof won a Grade 2 first time up at Cheltenham from Astracad and, for all he is an honourable horse, he has no graded pretensions. The fact that Peddlers Cross won a class 3 race beating a Grade 1 winning hurdler who jumped well ranks as better form for me, regardless of the fact that it was a class 3 race. That to me is irrelevant.
Zenyatta, I'm sorry but we're talking about chasing, not hurdling , aren't we? Peddler's Cross has won but two scrappy contests at Bangor , beating absolutely nothing. If you're referring to Minella Class as being a Grade One Hurdler, then that's irrelevant- he's never won a CHASE! OK, if you don't, as you say, accept the grade of race as being important- rather the opposition- then your case is even weaker. The opposition in those two Bangor races must rate as the worst by far ever encountered by an Arkle Chase favourite. Personally I don't buy this business of top flat horses and hurdlers automatically making top hurdlers and top steeplechasers respectively. History is littered with failures and many top hurdlers and chasers were useless on the flat and over hurdles respectively. You're obviously determined that Peddler's Cross is going to be a star chaser because he was a star hurdler. Non sequitur. He has a better chance than most inferior hurdlers, no more no less. People felt the same about Cue Card being a cert for the Supreme Novices because he had cantered home in a poor Cheltenham Bumper. That was another 'no brainer.' However, Cue Card's chasing form at two miles is better than Peddler's Cross' and stands up against anything in the race. He would be my fancy in a very open contest.
Fair debate guys and just a difference in opinion. Peddlers was being educated first two starts and Kempton was the first race run at championship pace. Barring a horrible ettor at the first, he was very tidy. I think he will come on and I think he'll be an improving chaser come Cheltenham. Sprinter Sacre might well be the real mccoy though and if he is then fair play. There is only one niggling doubt with him and thats the uphill finish, but he does look a different horse this year. Its hard to truly weigh up their early season novice chase form. We know Sprinter Sacre is so far the better jumper (spectacular so far) but we havent seen them all together in a high class big field. But thats why Cheltenham is so intriguing!
I wonder whether Don McCain is regretting sending PC to Kempton after all? He never went there with him over hurdles and after winning that rearranged Fighting Fifth at Newbury I found it surprising that they didn't go for the Christmas Hurdle. I'm sure I remember McCain saying he didn't think Kempton would suit the horse at the time. Without taking anything away from SS, I don't believe that was PCs true running. Maguire was having to get at him early in the race which I have never seen with him before. It could well be that the mistake at the first took a lot out of him but jumping is the name of the game. I fully agree with Tam that hurdles form cannot always be literally translated to chasing BUT I also believe PC remains a big player in the Arkle picture. I think Cheltenham will suit him much better and his undoubted stamina will see him bound up the hill. I think the race is pretty much priced up correctly between the principals - you have to have SS as favourite after his demolition job at Kempton but he is no good thing. At the moment I am coming down slightly in favour of Al Ferof but there's a fair bit of water to flow under the bridge before March 13th.
I just cannot understand how Peddlers Cross' second effort is overrated on 160?! What am I missing?! You say we are talking about chases and we are but if you look at virtually all the novice chasers that we have been talking about their chase marks are virtually identical to their hurdles mark (Al Ferof, Walkon, Zaynar, Cue Card etc). There are a few exceptions, Sprinter Sacre being the obvious one who is already well ahead of his hurdles peak. Why therefore must we assume that Minella Class ran miles below his hurdles form when he was beaten behind Peddlers Cross? The handicapper to arrive at the 160 rating has already assumed that he was 8lbs below his best hurdles figure to arrive at the 160. Do we really think that he ran more below form than that? If you think Minella Class ran to say 130 (18lbs below his best hurdles figure) in that race then that would put Peddlers Cross onto 150, the same mark as I have him running to in the Kempton race. Does anybody seriously believe that he produced the same performance on each occasion? I have no agenda, indeed if I found that I was wrong I would be only too delighted to accept it because it might save me some money. I am not trying to 'prove' that Peddlers Cross can win the Arkle by fiddling the figures, I am showing you that he can by using logical arguments about the figures that the formbook produces. I just cannot understand how people think that Peddlers is overrated on 160. All the evidence suggests that his Bangor performance was worthy of that figure. That race was also run in a very fast time lending it further validity. Anyhow, rant over. My analysis did throw up some interesting points about Cue Card. I didn't really like his performance at Newbury visually but to restrain his rating you have to have both For Non Stop and Walkon running well below form. Perhaps he is the one that is a little underrated? I just for whatever reason don't see him as an Arkle contender with his awkward jumping.
Cue Card is the potential improver but I struggle to put an enormous amount of faith in a horse who has seen the fences and failed to complete - he had already made a couple of quite serious blunders before unshipping Tizzard at Cheltenham back in Nov, he seemed to jump better at Chepstow and Newbury where maybe there are fewer undulations to catch him out ???
Sprinter Sacre has today received his shiny new BHA Chase rating . . . They have him on 161, just 1lb clear of Peddlers Cross. Interestingly Timeform have him 4lbs clear and RPR 3lbs. I, the one who thinks he might get beat, have it at an apparently colossal 5lbs! Oh the irony. Edit: It appears in the 3rd January Handicappers Blog but I'm certain it wasn't there originally. It has definitely been added to his Racing Post form page since this morning too.
Zenyatta superb analysis well done. Good arguments put up by all i think this race is shaping as the race of the festival
I am glad I have finally found a board with a lot of the old 606 mob on. Hello again to you all. Anyways, onto the point I am wishing to make. Donald McCain said he has found a couple of problems with Peddlers Cross which will explain the defeat at Kempton. I don't know how much they will have held him back. However, I think I am correct in saying that was his first run under rules on a right handed track! That could have something to do with it...... it might turn out not to be that way.
After watching the Victor Chandler chase at Ascot yesterday I have come to the conclusion that the run by AL FEROF was a huge one for a novice. He finished 3 lengths behind Somersby who is rated 166, if you think that Somersby ran up to that mark yesterday then AL FEROF`S run was good enough to win most Arkle`s most years. I have helped myself to some 7/1 e/w with Ladbrokes
Interesting view mate and differing views is what makes this forum. For me Somersby didn't run to 166 and Al Ferof was 5lengths behind still so I think that Sprinter Sacre has therefore run to a higher mark this season. That said, I just feel that round Cheltenham Peddlers Cross is the one to be on at the prices. At this stage this is probably the race I'm looking forward to most though once we see Zarkandar and (hopefully) Spirit Son that might change. btw, think there is already an arkle thread so Ron will probably merge this in. edit, be interested to know if people think that Al Ferof has an advantage over PC and SS now he's raced against more experienced competition at Grade One pace.
Expierience is invaluable for novice chasers heading to Cheltenham, He'll have gained alot from yesterday Al Ferof and Im sure Paul Nicholls will have left abit to work on before heading for the Arkle. I really like this horse, He jumps very well and usually travels supremely I don't think he was travelling as good yesterday maybe the step up to more seasoned chasers caught him out a touch but He's got a big future thats for sure. At this moment in time Im not sure who Im fancying for the Arkle. I like Cheltenham form aswell as previous Festival form heading to Cheltenham and Al Ferof as some very good form around Cheltenham hes battled up the hill on numerous occasions and he had some good horses behind him in the Supreme. Peddlers Cross is the same and Im sure we will see a different horse to the one we saw at Kempton, I don't believe Sprinter Sacre is that much better than Peddlers Cross although he as been very impressive on his two chase starts its weather he can replicate that at Cheltenham and thats a big 'if' for Me...
I agree with the OP - and if you'd listened to Rubys comments afetr the race you'd be oozing confidence
Paul Nicholls has wrote this for his betfair slot http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...-nicholls-delighted-with-al-ferof-220112.html
I agree - a few weeks ago it was a one horse race with Peddlers Cross unbeatable, then Sprinter Sacre anhialiated PC at Kempton and now we have Al Ferof who appears to be favouring this route and lets not forget that Cue Card and Menorah look to heading for this as well. Always a great race on the best day of the week but this one could be seriously special.....
I've had a bit of 6/1 on Al Ferof tonight - always liked him for this race, very good run in high class company at the weekend and everything aimed now at the Arkle. Has Cheltenham Championship form and I can only see him shortening between now and March 13th.
Really Oddy ? I haven't rushed out to back him because I think the reverse, I don't see his price shrinking much and I think I'll get close to similar on the day. Sprinter Sacre has the best form in the race and is fixed at 5/2, Peddlers Cross can only shorten if he comes out and puts up an improved performance on him Kempton run so what price can Al Ferof go to ? I guess much depends on who will be out before Cheltenham and how their performance is perceived but they can't be 9/4 (SS) 4/1 (PC) 9/2 (AF) 8/1 (Cue Card) 10/1 (Menorah) and still have a dozen others in the race, they'll be betting to about 130% unless the rest are all 200/1 shots. Also, Al Ferof still 13/2 with corals Oddy
I like to get a few early bets on Grizzly (not for big stakes) just to see how they move over the run up to the festival - adds to the build up. I've got a hunch Sprinter Sacre may put a dodgy one in next time out and still can't have him coming up the hill and, even though I was all over him for the Champion Hurdle last season, I'm not convinced about Peddlers Cross as a chaser. I just don't have him as a 2 mile speedster, he is a very capable jumper but for me not a fast one. So if SS is not so impressive next time, and PC doesn't put in a seriously impressive performance before the festival then I can see both drifting. Al Ferof has some very good form in the book now and I can see him pushing SS for favouritism on the day. At least that's what I hope
Mate, I'm not saying AF won't win, of them all I would probably be siding with him at this stage, I guess we just interpret the market differently. When the ante post favourite runs a shocker they move him out a fraction, if he runs satisfactory he's harden a fraction, if he impressed they'll shorten him considerably, Sprinter Sacre will have to hit the deck to be pushed out for me but if he stays on his feet and wins he'll shorten. It would take one of Sprintre Sacre or Peddlers to pull out I think for AF to shorten....
