If he did hose up by 10 lenghts what would it do to the price of the Fly in the Champion Hurdle...? Would it shorten Zarkandar up from a current 7/1 or still leave H Fly at a 7/4 fav...??? My feeling is that both would shorten and that Zarkandar would go 2nd fav infront of Grandouet...
Haven’t had a bet in the heat to date but the one I really like is Olofi. Looks very well treated on 136 (although would run off 139 if the weights don’t rise). Has had 2 runs to date this term finishing 2nd in the Greatwood and then falling, 2 out, over the course and distance of the Betfair Hurdle when going exceptionally well in the race Celestial Halo eventually won. 14/1 looks a fair price for Olofi here.
His price for the Champion Hurdle is all about potential at the moment and the expectation will be that he wins the Betfair if he goes for it. I'm not sure he would shorten much if he did win it handsomely, it would depend what the other challengers do in their prep races. If Hurricane Fly slams Unaccompanied at the weekend I expect she will dirift, also Grandouet could shorten again if he wins his prep (I seem to recall reading he would go for the Kingwell) although it will depend what he beats. Either way it looks like the top 3 in the market (HF, Grandouet, Zarkandar) will be avoiding each other up until the Champion Hurdle so I would expect much change in their prices if they all win well.
He'll be 6/4 for this on the day and he'll be 7/2 2nd favourite for the Champion if he wins as expected.
i already snapped up the 9/2. This horse has unlimited potential and if he has any hops of winning a champion hurdle he is going to have to be a lot better than 151. The triumph hurdle form is working out amazingly. Also he seems like the type of horse to be suited to a big field strongly run handicap hurdle rather than a small field. This is part of my last bet until the festival and have had my biggest ever bet a £500 win double on zarkandar to win the betfair hurdle and hurricane fly to win the irish champion hurdle.
Had a little speculative ante post double on Hold On Julio (9/2) for the Great Yorkshire (Skybet) Chase and Zarkandar (4/1) for the Betfair Hurdle - pays 26.5/1 and will keep things interesting for a while
Celestial Halo and Empire Levant are the two most likely runners in next month's big hurdle at Newbury, says Paul I have five entries in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month, and I see that Zarkandar heads the market at around the 7.0 mark. But a word of warning for punters: I have made no firm plans for the race at this stage for any of my entries. As it stands, I would say that Celestial Halo and Empire Levant would be likely runners. Celestial Halo was awesome in winning at the course on New Year's Eve, and that brought his record in handicap hurdles to three from three. And when you consider that win came off a mark of 160, you realise what a high-class performance that was. It is further proof that, while he can struggle off level weights against the top guns over 2m, he has the necessary class to give weight away to lesser horses. So, on a track he loves, he looks set to take his chance, even though he has been raised to 165. Not many horses win handicaps off those kind of marks but I do have the option of taking 7lb off with Harry Derham. Empire Levant is a horse I like but was held up after being cast in his box over Christmas. If he isn't ready in time, he will go straight to the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. If Celestial Halo runs, he will have a nice racing weight. It was nice of one reporter this week to point out to the handicapper how well the 2011 Triumph Hurdle form is working out, and I have been very happy with Zarkandar since his setback (like Empire Levant, he too was cast in his box). But if you fancy him, then I would hold fire for the time being. He has alternative engagements at Wincanton, Haydock and Sandown, and conditions, as well as his well-being nearer the time, will dictate where he goes. But he is shaping very well at home and the only race that matters for him is the Champion Hurdle. I see Brampour is available at well over 100.0 on Betfair for the Champion Hurdle, and he would have been a fraction of that price had we not run him last time. He is 100pc at home. As for Rock On Ruby, he probably goes straight to the Champion.
I dont know if Nicholls has said anything since but I think its very risky taking 4-1 on this horse as I expect similar odds would available on the day.
That was from 15th Jan Stick, there here from 20th Jan: "But I have some good news for those who have already backed Zarkandar for the UK's richest handicap hurdle, The Betfair Hurdle, at Newbury on February 11. The horse had his racecourse gallop this week, and went very nicely. So Newbury is now very much the plan. Betfair have been pressing me for details of the gallop - without success!"
Fair do's the oddy and best of luck to all of you that have steamed in. If he is anything near that price the day before I may have a dabble myself but there is enough time between now and then for all sorts of changes. Certainly the best handicapped horse in the race by some way!
Only two blue squares on Oddschecker. Coral are now 4/1 about Zarkandar after being the last to hold the 9/2, and Stan James now 16/1 about Empire Levant after being the only firm to offer the 18/1 advised. Jog on Pricewise. On a side note. The Racing Post Polls are not exactly an accurate representation of a horses chance, or even public opinion, but I see Zarkandar is currently polling 60% for the Betfair Hurdle. That doesn't surprise me in the slightest and I think there is a strong argument that he should be much much shorter than 4/1 (or the 9/2 that we all got). To put it in perspective, if 60% of people think he will win then that would indicate a price of around 4/6. I'm not for a minute suggesting that he should be that short in one of the most competitive races of the year but I do think he should be a good deal shorter than the 4/1 available.
'On a side note. The Racing Post Polls are not exactly an accurate representation of a horses chance, or even public opinion, but I see Zarkandar is currently polling 60% for the Betfair Hurdle. That doesn't surprise me in the slightest and I think there is a strong argument that he should be much much shorter than 4/1 (or the 9/2 that we all got). To put it in perspective, if 60% of people think he will win then that would indicate a price of around 4/6. I'm not for a minute suggesting that he should be that short in one of the most competitive races of the year but I do think he should be a good deal shorter than the 4/1 available.' I don't think that's exactly the way bookies price up their races Zen.
Of that I am fully aware. The point is that he should still be shorter than he is. I expect he will be too. The odds are just a reflection of each horses chance of winning the race in percentage terms. Odds of 4/1 suggest that Zarkandar has a 20% chance of winning the Betfair Hurdle. I would argue that he has a much greater chance than that, making 4/1 too big a price.
That is the problem, and the answer to your question in regards the price. We also don't know the weight he will carry, the ground conditions or the full field. 4/1 will look big on the day, but only if he turns up with conditions and weights to suit.
