Tempest River and BABY SHINE meet for the third time in their relatively short careers at Leicester in the 2.40 tomorrow. On the first occasion Baby Shine gave 7lbs and a beating to Tempest River but revenge was exacted at Aintree the next time they met. The score then is 1-1 and there is not likely to be much between the pair again tomorrow. The feeling in the Wadham yard though was that it was a race too many in Baby Shine's season. Her other defeat last season came at the hands of Swincombe Flame so there is no doubting the value of her ability. She goes well fresh and the yard are pretty confident of a big performance tomorrow. I like the look of PAINTER MAN in the last but the value was gone before I got on. It's a hot race though as Mujamead is in fine form and my information is that WIESENTRAUM, another Wadham charge is also expected to go very close, at 12-1 i'd say it's a decent EW shout. Sometimes it doesnt hurt to miss the boat! Finally at Kempton tomorrow GEORGE GURU 6-1 is expected to win the 4.30 and will be backed accordingly.
If Baby Shine isn't a lot better than 110 (TR mark) then I will be utterly shocked, we have seen that Sandown form franked time and again and I think Baby Shine was unlucky that day and is going to make a better hurdler than many in that race.
Evening One for me tomorrow ABIGAILS ANGEL 2.30 Kempton Fast finishing 2nd last time out, over a mile, out pretty quickly, now over 1m 2f, think tomorrow is the day for this horse. Good luck all
Cadeaux Pearl should not be 13/2 tomorrow at Southwell. He beat Ghostwing on penultimate start, and that horse then went and broke the course record at the track on his next start. I think Cadeaux Pearl is better handicapped than his stablemate and likely jolly Even Stevens.
I love your write ups Nass, how you predict what shouldnt be a price inevitably the get beat, i dont fancy any of these my selection for that race shouldnt be 7/1 either if COLONEL MAK can transfer his turf form to the AW he could piss this ;-). Good luck all teh same fella
Guess you weren't on Violin Davis 4/1 , Aldermoor 13/2, Avonvalley 8/1, Michael Flips 5/1 , Chapoturgeon 7/2 , Total Rebellion 16/1 in the last week then? Ah, and I put them up early and with real prices. Crazy me.
Just a couple for me tomorrow; 13.35- Zama Zama- looks the one to beat. After an easy win over C&D last month, his defeat at Taunton last time was fairly disappointing but, in hindsight, that was probably a good novices' hurdle and he will be well fancied to regain the winning thread today 14.05- Esteem- has thrived since switching to in-form Dave Evans and can defy a penalty for last week's Ludlow success, I feel the race may have come to soon for Drom after his hard victory on sunday 14.40- Baby Shine 14.50 (southwell)- Colonel Mak
Evening SAMURAI WAY will go really well tomorrow. Travelled nicely for a long way last time out after a long lay off and has been dropped 3lbs for that effort. Sam Thomas went wide throughout the race that day and I hope he will be given a better ride this time
WIN TREBLE Herecomesthehollow 1.35 Leics Baby Shine 2.40 Leics Saves Time 4.10 Leics Intend to put 10 pound down. Depending on odds tomorrow morning I'm hoping it will a) Win! b) Pay for two days at Cheltenham, all in. The one I really think is overpriced is the bottom of the three at 7s though I see others have other fancies and info in this race. Think Baby Shine has Tempest River slightly beat of level weights and is 6lb well in and I've taken a complete shot in the dark the the twisto horse in the first ran is a well above average NHF race.
Think its mad that 7 of the 10 runners are racing from out of the handicap. If all the horses in the race were racing off their true marks I'd be siding with the 3rd string Sir Geoffrey but as he's 4lb out of the handicap I'm just inclined to leave him be. He is actually 9lb better off at the weights than Cadeaux Pearl (when taking into account the jockeys claims) for a 0.38L defeat LTO. As his last run was a significant return to form, I think Sir Geoffrey will put up an improved performance again. It could easily be a Scott Dixon 1-2-3 tomorrow
The Southwell 14:50 is a cracker of a race. 6 of the 10 have won on the course, 5 over this trip. There is one who has been tested in top company and done ok. Colonel Mak finished 4th in a field of 26 in the Ayr Gold Cup a 120,000 pound race. His only run in this time was not much good. Has he a chance today? Would any of the rest here finished so close?
With the first time blinkers fitted I think Rate Of Knots can be rewarded for his consistency in the 3.40 at Leicester. Prior to his fall in the Sussex National he was placed in 4 consecutive races and beaten a combined total of just over 5 lengths. He had the Cheek Pieces on at Towcester 2 runs ago and they certainly seemed to galvanise him as he finished to great effect having been outpaced. Although the winner that day hasn't advertised the form, the second placed hose The Falklander has subsequently won a decent novice chase from Rhum. Best of luck everyone
Cyc, if Ayr changed their track to Fibresand I think Even Stevens and Cadeaux Pearl would be 1-2 in the Gold Cup ROTO, taking form from Kempton and applying it to Southwell is very dangerous in my view. Sir Geoffrey has shown a liking for this surface and goes well on it, but I think more importantly CP seemed to relish the surface on his penultimate start, and I think he goes better on it than he does on the polytrack. The Colonel is dangerous, but I have two worries, firstly the ground as Makbul as a sire is less than 10% with runners on the fibresand. I also worry that they are getting him handicapped for a spring campaign on the turf. The run last time can either be seen as a pipe opener, or it can be seen as the start of a handicap lowering campaign (would I suggest such a thing). If the money comes for Colonel then I will take the form of this race at face value for him, if it doesn't I will be very sceptical about his winter campaign. Good luck one and all today, and in the words of someone else - Stay frosty
I'm not sure the Colonel can win. He just interests me. The winner will probably come from something with form on the course.
Nass: No problem where I am! What do we say to Cyc, erm, "Stay on heat"?.............................
It's quite nice here Swanny. 24 and raining. The only down side is that my wife has Home And Away on.
