I think he could run well and only place, and equally well run badly and still place. In my opinion, whether it is a good bet or not depends on how many runners there are. 8 then it is, any less than 8 and it isn't.
8 runners in an ultra competitive Grade 1, with all the bookies cutting each other's throats to get the punter's business. This is punting heaven. Can't see Wishful Thinking being out of the first three, so 13/2 with 1/4 the odds a place is a steal. He's easily good enough to win if he doesn't go haring off in front pulling Dickie's arms out.
Forpady interests me ew this weekend. Cant see the racing as im away for the weekend but it sounds to me like he is coming back to form, chasing home the excellent Big Zeb twice, and that level of form is not far away from the frame. Might just be his sort of race. Will be a big day of fluctuation on Cheltenham ante post markets today.
Nice write up Oddy however i think you have totally missed the point with Somersby!! Beaten a short head last year in this by Master Minded to be disgarded is an insult! I see him as the EW bet to nothing. Remember the pace is without doubt going to be fast. Finians Rainbow is class but will his jumping hold out? The novice is the one to beat IMO, Al Ferof is the best jumper from this field and the faster pace will suit him more than setting his own pace as he had to at Sandown LTO. Great race in prospect
Nice write-up Oddy, even though mine got just one word and one abbreviation from you! I will stay loyal to Somersby, even though I am well aware he could be a bookies' horse. Thought he ran a decent enough race LTO against the great Kauto Star; Somersby's first try over 3-miles I believe? A good jumper who seems to like Ascot and might just surprise a few. Current odds are awful, however, and surely his SP will be more than 6/1?
Big apologies from me to all Somersby fans - he was the only one today who could go the pace and distance. Much as I think Hen is an old scatterbrain I think that run in the King George may have helped him win that today - travelled really strongly and found some.
Racing can be a funny old game, so many wrote SOMERSBY off thats why we all post on message forums what do we know. Won well good call Gary, hope your on the road to recovery, Steves dad sadly passed away this morning god rest his soul.
What do people think of the result and its ramifications? Somersby has been consistently exposed at the top level before and I cannot believe that he has improved to win this. I have him down as a 160 rated horse (or thereabouts). I definitely think that his 166 Official Rating is too high anyway. He seems to like Ascot so I think it is fair to say that he has run up to around this level. Finian's Rainbow is rated 157 and him being beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. It would appear that he has run to a fairly similar level to take 2nd in this. He might have improved a few lbs but we are not talking about improvement significant enough for him to be a Champion Chase contender. I had Al Ferof rated 152 (in my Arkle piece) for his first win at Cheltenham, and similar at Sandown. He was a further 3 and 3/4 lengths behind so it seems that he has run to a broadly similar level too, maybe a few lbs improvement. He was outpaced virtually from the word go and looks for all the world like a step up in trip is what he wants. He won the Supreme with his stamina last year and he will need a similarly fast pace to have a chance in the Arkle. You could easily rate the race around some of those in behind and push all these ratings up but I don't think that is justified. It is relatively easy to argue that contrary view, and I'm sure some of you will, but it's not for me. In my opinion the ratings fall in very nicely using the logic I have applied above. Conclusions Sizing Europe is starting to look a certainty for the Champion Chase in my opinion. I think his Tingle Creek win his head and shoulders above any other 2m form seen this season and he seems sure to be seen to better effect back on good ground round Cheltenham, his ideal conditions. Big Zeb has been beating Forpadydeplasterer by less than he was beaten today and the impression I have got is that Big Zeb isn't the horse he was in his prime. He was beaten in the Champion Chase by Sizing Europe last year by a comfortable 5 lengths and I see no reason why that form should be reversed, especially when Sizing Europe is a year younger. His defeat of Sizing Europe at Punchestown should be largely ignored because it is a track where Sizing Europe has been consistently below his best . This view is confirmed by connections, in particular Andrew Lynch who has said that the track doesn't suit his style of running. Finian's Rainbow was the only danger I could see purely because of his scope to improve significantly on what he had previously shown. He had every opportunity to put himself firmly into the picture today but failed to do so and couldn't even win the race. This was certainly not the performance of a potential Champion Chaser and his weakness at the finish, both in the Arkle and today (though strangely not at Kempton last time) remains a concern, especially when encountering the Cheltenham hill. He has a lot to prove now and the quotes of 6/1 look far far too short. He has 20lbs to find with Sizing Europe on official ratings and I think that is about right. I couldn't fancy Somersby for the Champion Chase because he still has a mountain to find with Sizing Europe and I see no reason why he should improve on his 12 and 1/2 length beating in the race last year. I also think that he will be vulnerable in the Ryanair which will surely be his intended target. As I have shown, he did not need to improve today to win, so there is no reason why he should have shortened up in my opinion. He has just run to his usual (admirably consistent) level and that will always leave him vulnerable at the very top, regardless of the trip. Whether there is anything to beat him in the Ryanair is a different matter but I will most likely be keen to find something to take him on with. Wishfull Thinking was hugely disappointing again and he looks a shadow of the horse that was so impressive at the back end of last season. Connections find themselves between a rock and a hard place in that he will not settle in front and yet his relentless galloping and slick jumping from the front were what won him races last season. It is back to the drawing board after this. The race obviously had an impact on the Arkle market and I must say that I was surprised to see Al Ferof shorten up into 5/1 in places after this result. Coral were the standouts who pushed him out to 8/1. To my eye he was never travelling and showed that he needs further than 2m. The time was relatively fast and he looked outpaced right from the off. To be fair his jumping held together well until the home straight when it started looking just a little scruffy. I have seen comments in quite a few places that he did his Arkle hopes big favours with this performance but I would disagree. I don't for a minute think that he did his chances any harm but I don't think that he improved greatly on anything he has previously shown. I had him rated 152 and he might have improved a few lbs but nothing significant. I just think he will be seen to better effect over further. Indeed, his trainer Paul Nicholls has just tweeted "Dont usually like getting beat but delighted with Al Ferof. Great prep for Arke. Will appreciate further nxt season". I actually thought it was a little disappointing that he couldn't put up more of a race to the leading duo and think he would appreciate further this season. I know I keep saying that the Arkle is a race that suits stayers and it is. However, the problem that Al Ferof has is that I think Peddlers Cross has more pace than him and will stay just as strongly. Sprinter Sacre has the most pace but after his Supreme effort, the hill remains a concern for me. Whilst I am at it I suppose I should tell you what they told me at Seven Barrows. The answer was a rather too definitive 'yes' to the point where it sounded defensive. It didn't wreak of confidence like they did about Simonsig for example. They took too much trouble and effort to convince me, a bit like they were trying to convince themselves. I might be reading it all wrong but that is the impression I got. It is still enough of a doubt in my mind to leave him alone for the time being anyway. Though I must say that he is a fantastic specimen and a beautiful mover. If Sprinter Sacre does get up the hill then they might not see which way he went, and he might be so far in front that it is irrelevant too. However, I remain of the opinion that if Peddlers Cross runs his race then I think he will win. Provided that he jumps like he did at Bangor, I think it will take a huge performance to beat him in the Arkle. Sprinter Sacre might be capable of that huge performance, I now don't think that Al Ferof is at 2m, but at the prices I would remain firmly in the Peddlers Cross camp. To sum up, Sizing Europe is starting to look a banker in my opinion and Peddlers Cross would still be my selection for the Arkle. I am nothing if not loyal!
Nice summary Zen and I am also convinced Sizing Europe will take the Champion Chase. He may well get beaten in the Tied Cottage next weekend because, as you point out, he has never excelled at Punchestown (over fences and hurdles). If that does happen then he may lengthen slightly for Cheltenham and if he does I will be grapping some of that. If he wins the Tied Cottage against Big Zeb et al you would have to say Cheltenham is starting to look a formality
Im still with WISHFUL THINKING AP at 20/1, I am confident they will have him there or there abouts come the day, but I must admit Zen that the connections of SIZING EUROPE must be feeling confident at the moment.
I have him at 11/4 too Ron and I am delighted with that. I see very few, if any, dangers to him to be honest. I haven't backed him before this but think his form this season is head, shoulders and more above anything else we have seen.
3.5 is 5/2 so just above. I still think 9/4 is a cracking price. I am certainly keener on Sizing Europe's chances than Hurricane Fly (2/1) for example. He has had the planned preparation and Hurricane Fly hasn't and he has far far less to beat.
You'd do well to get 2s for the Fly now Zen, and when he hoses up on Sunday I think he will be top priced 6/4. Nothing has come out to say "hey I'm a real challenger". In fact, if Zarkandar flops on reappearance I think the Fly could go odds-on
I dont wanna start a war again lol I just hope the breathing op has worked on Binocular and we see him back to near enough his best!
I see what you mean Oddy and I agree that Hurricane Fly will be mighty hard to beat. However I think Sizing Europe faces a much easier task and he should be shorter in my book. It's not so much that Hurricane Fly is too short, but more that Sizing Europe is still too big. Paddy Power are the only firm going 2/1 about Hurricane Fly.
