If Quevega lined up, then I can't see the bookies offering much more than 5/1, so you wouldnt realy be making alot backing her EW, if she was placed. It's ashame that they keep running her in the mares hurdle, as she deserves to take her chance in the World Hurdle, I'm not saying she will beat Big Bucks, but she would certainly be there or there abouts for 2nd place, and who knows Big Bucks could have an off day
I rarely ever back E/W to be honest, Not even the Grand National. Like I was saying I could see her in the picture and would back her to win. And like you was saying BB could have an off day... He wins that easy though, An off day for him would still be a career best for most. Its quite scary!
Quevega goes for the Mares hurdle 100%, not even a discussion with connections, they want the 4th festival crown. 6/4 is just plain stupid....
Touch wood it doesnt happen, but if Big Bucks was to get injured, then I'm sure Quevega would run in the World Hurdle, as she has arguably the best form of the rest
Yep she does. Massive shame but a 6/4 winner is better thn a 6/1 second. This race is boring this year. There you go, I've said it.
Quel - last year highlighted the dilluted festival for me when Quevega won on the bridal and Carlito Brigante turned what should have been one of the most competitive races of the year into a ridiculous procession, these things happen when the meeting is devalued. Quevega has beaten Voler La Vadette, Caroles Legacy, United and they all run scared of her now, there are only ever a couple of decent mares around in any one year, Quevega could win the race 6 times
Just seen that Hills have cut Quevega to 5/4 and Paddys to 11/8. Unlikely to have been my money that's shifted it but I've got on just in time....
You never know Grizzly- I had my money on Empire Levant for the County Hurdle @ 25's last night, I then refreshed and he was down to 16's lol
I've decided I could get rich by backing Wooly's outsiders and then laying them off. Just need some money I can afford to risk.
This race will cut up very badly, there are doubtful stayers along with horses that will try to get Big Bucks beat and fade away SO for betting purposes get on whoever you fancy in the betting market without the fav! There is massive value to be had as long as you know your selection is going for the race. My 2 against the field are: Cross Kennon loves the place and could be a huge price and easily sneak 4th which gets you dosh! My bet is Five Dream, have taken 12s without BB and topped up with 14s courtesy of good old 365
Incidentally, Pricewise has put up Carlito Brigante at 50-1 EW... although he does make a big point of saying that this is really playing for a place and that Big Bucks is extremely likely to win. Personally I'm not sure I agree - although I do kinda like Carlito, I feel that with only really 2 places up for grabs in behind Big Bucks, 2 out of Oscar Whisky, Mourad, Mikhael D'Haguenet and Dynaste must be better than him - and that assumes that Thousand Stars won't run (which I don't think he will, if he's going to Aintree and for the French Champion, then slogging 3m against Big Bucks seems less attractive than the Champion). The way I see it, Dynaste will make a good pace and then get beaten in the process, leaving Oscar Whisky and Mikhael D'Haguenet to watch Big Bucks fly away from them. I quite like Five Dream's EW value as he is guaranteed to be run for a place, whist the four others that I mentioned will, I think, try to win, and therefore get themselves beaten. Lets be honest, the real value in this race has to be waiting until the day, then lumping all the money you have won on the first two days on Big Bucks. No brainer.
I see in today’s media that Dai Walters, the owner of Oscar Whisky, has said that his steed is 60:40 likely to run in the World Hurdle as opposed to the old Champion. I think I speak for most when I say that I though the % chance of him running in the ‘stayers event’ was a lot higher than 60. It would appear that the likelihood of OW running in the 3 miler is perhaps not as ‘done and dusted’ as first appeared. Also Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, has remarked that if OW won the Welsh Champion Hurdle over 16 furlongs, next month, in ‘devastating fashion' then a serious choice would present itself to them. I must admit that OW isn’t for me in either race but these quotes from today should certainly be bourn in mind. Furthermore, all the major bookie chappies are now quoting OW for the Champion and, of course, Mr Henderson is now highly unlikely to have the ‘arrow’ of Spirit Son to draw upon in the shorter race.
I know the purists will disagree but I firmly believe we need a 2m4f Grade 1 Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival - it's a gaping hole for me, there are plenty of hugely talented hurdlers who don't have the speed for the Champion Hurdle and don't have the stamina for the World Hurdle. Somthing like the "Easyjet Hurdle" to go with the Ryanair Chase
Oddy, got, for once, to disagree as I think it would further dilute the Festival. Also, whenever this point is raised the Executive of Aintree racecourse tend to erupt as it would take so much prestige away from there own 20 furlong Grade 1 event.
Seldom has one horse so dominated a division as Big Buck's has the top staying hurdle races since his switch from fences after his rider was unseated at the last in the 2008 Hennessy Gold Cup. Fourteen races and fourteen wins later he stands head and shoulders above his likely opponents as he bids to win the World Hurdle for the fourth year in a row. Punchestowns, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus have come and gone as his main challenger, each only briefly looking as if they could make a race of it before Big Buck's strode imperious to victory. In contrast to the last two years, Big Buck's is set to contest the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham at the end of the month, a race he won in 2009, before his first World Hurdle success. Defeat there would be a major surprise, as it would at Cheltenham for the Festival itself. No horse is unbeatable but Big Buck's comes close and it's hard to see what might lower his colours come March. In such an instance, the market without Big Buck's is likely to make plenty of appeal as it matures. Second favourite at present is Oscar Whisky who would have a serious chance of finishing in the first two in the Champion Hurdle but who is likely to run here instead, given his trainer Nicky Henderson's strength in depth in the two-mile hurdling division. Oscar Whisky's stamina will have to be taken on trust, as his prep race is set to be the Welsh Champion Hurdle over two miles and he's yet to run beyond two-and-a-half. He isn't sure to stay on pedigree and doesn't shape like a horse that will improve for stepping up to three miles. However, such is the lack of depth in this contest that he might end up second by default. After Oscar Whisky, the rest of the likely runners must find plenty of improvement to get close to Big Buck's, never mind beat him. Willie Mullins has a handful of possible contenders, including Thousand Stars (more likely to go for the Champion), last year's third Mourad, former Baring Bingham winner Mikael d'Haguenet, So Young, a short-priced favourite when an unlucky third in that race last year, and Zaidpour, who is unexposed but a doubtful stayer at three miles. So Young is definitely the most interesting of the quintet and makes much more appeal as a place prospect for this race than he would for the Champion, his alternative engagement. He is likely to have his final run before Cheltenham in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan next month. Mourad has his limitations, most recently shown up by Voler La Vedette at Leopardstown in December. Voler La Vedette would be another contender for a place were she to be committed to this race but she has alternatives, including the David Nicholson for mares only, and has missed Cheltenham altogether in the past. Dynaste has already had one crack at Big Buck's and come up short, in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas. Over a testing three miles one furlong on soft going, Dynaste was ridden to challenge Big Buck's head on and paid for such audacity in the end, fading into fourth. He'd looked very much on the upgrade before that, winning the Betfair 'Fixed Brush' at Haydock in good style in November, and with a more conservative ride in face of less of a test of stamina, he might yet emerge as a serious player, for a place at least. He is due to take on Big Buck's again in the Cleeve and a bold showing there will see his price shorten a fair bit. Big Buck's is hard to oppose. So Young (26.0/5.0) and Dynaste (42.0/8.0) make some appeal as each way or win and place options, and indeed may do so as a 'betting without' market becomes established.
Just looking at Oddschecker and Big Bucks is in to 1/2 with many firms BUT Paddy Power have left him at 4/7 and shortened the rest of the field are they quite mad?
