Even at this embryonic stage the heat already looks like it will develop into a Hurricane Fly v Mr Henderson one. I know which ‘side’ I’m on and look forward to toasting the forum’s favourite trainer when he brings up his ‘half dozen’ in the race in a couple of months time. If someone put a gun to my head, although I’m sure that no-one would want to do that, and asked his most likely of his then I’d say Spirit Son but don’t rule out either Grandouet or Binocular. It really makes me laugh, but also quite saddens me, when people choose to diss the latter. One of the best Champion Hurdle winners of recent years and was cruelly robbed the chance of adding a second crown last term due to those ‘unfortunate circumstances’. Forget every other run of his in the 2010/11 season as during that campaign Binocular was trained with only the Champion Hurdle in mind and he was over the top at both Aintree and Fairyhouse. If you want to judge Binocular do it on his 2010 Champion Hurdle win (official rating of 171 for this) not on any other race since.
True, but as a punter wouldn't you rather your horse have the form in the book and confirmed fitness ? I know it can happen, but I'd suggest it becomes slightly harder if your horse has had setbacks (which has to be the case for them not to have been out) and makes their reappearance in Feb....
Nicholls said at the start of the season that he was planning a similar campaign for Zarkandar. Nothing to worry about I wouldn't have thought. He has said he had a small setback early in the season, hence why he might be struggling to make the Betfair Hurdle, but as far as the Champion goes I am not concerned at all. That is his target and I have no doubt that he will be ready to run for his life on the one day that matters.
Arghhhhhhhhhhhh. Ok. How many horses do you know of, apart from Binocular, who you would back based on form from a race 2 years ago, ignoring his 7 runs since then? I mean, I really cannot think of many cases where that would be sufficient logic for me to carry on gambling. By 'not many', I mean none. I have seen nothing in Binoculars last 7 races (or, to be frank, all the ones before that) to suggest that he is better, on any kind of form, than an in-form Hurricane Fly. Should Binocular turn up all guns blazing, in time-turning fashion, with a run of 171.......... he'll be beaten by Hurricane Fly. If they both turn up and Binocular wins that match bet then I will strip off and tie myself to TopClass. Hurricane Fly hasn't, as we've already said, had the best of preparations this season, and he undoubtably improved as last season went on, so it's possible that he will not be as good this year as he was last. It is certainly, for my money, true to say that anything which ran in last years Champion Hurdle will not be good enough to beat him. Hence all the interest in the newcomers, Grandouet, Spirit Son and Binocular. I do actually agree that Spirit Son probably holds the most likely chance of usurping HF. If Nicky Henderson thinks he's better than Grandouet, then that bodes well. Assuming he's right, for me it boils down to Hurricane Fly vs Unnaccompanied vs Spirit Son vs Zarkandar. Nicholls always thinks he is going to win every race, and Unaccompanied didn't beat Thousand Stars by enough to suggest she's up to the challenge. Regardless of Spirit Sons potential to, as a five year old, post the strongest hurdles rating (apart from Big Bucks) that has been seen in the last 5 or so years, for me, if Hurricane Fly turns up, the rest might as well go home.
Haha Sorry Barney - that sounded marginally more aggressive than it was intended! I think I just see the exact opposite side of the Binocular coin to you I'm afraid.
Oddy, you could do worse than just back out of form horses from interesting yards in handicaps at the festival.
I think Grandouet is probably Nicky Henderson's best shot of glory unless Binocular turns up and shows his very best form where I reckon he will give the Fly something to think about! Aintree form means nothing when looking for a Festival winner the year after, Look how many horses have run over the top after the Festival? I think Spirit Son's win at Aintree was flattering him abit and he ran out of gas in the Supreme and we all know the likes of Hurricane Fly will aeroplane all the way to the line. I can't see it to be honest, He's not my idea of a Champion Hurdler.... Im still sticking with Zarkandar, The more I've watched of the Triumph last year the more Im impressed with it. He as a serious engine and serious turn of foot! I think The Fly will need to improve again to beat this field though. He'll need to win the Irish Champion Hurdle impressively if he's to justify his odds at Cheltenham. Remember last year he had an uninterrupted run and was bouncing at Cheltenham it worries me a touch that We still haven't seen him this year. Im not going to doubt Mr Mullins. But there is noway Hurricane Fly is a certainty for the Champion Hurdle. Not in My book anyway...
I've made my feelings about Binocular very clear so it really baffles me when people say he is potentially a contender for the crown. Even a reproduction of his absolute best is not going to be good enough if Fly runs to form for crying out loud and his best form is long long long gone. For me i think the prospect of Binocular winning in March is akin to Imperial Commander winning the Gold Cup or Carl Lewis beating Usain Bolt in the 100m final in London. Can someone please explain why the think Binocularn will win? Please.
Have I read this race wrong? The Fly will have to run better than a 170 to beat a field of horses who have barely run upto 165 before?????? It doesn't make sense to me.
I just can't have Grandouet - there was nothing travelling better 2 out in last years Triumph, he was virtually being tugged, then when the accelerator got pushed and the hill arrived he found nothing, it reminded me of Starluck. Many will point to his International win as proof he gets Cheltenham, he had a 4lb pull from Overturn and beat him 4 lengths and was being ridden right out, I'd struggle to find anyone who thinks Overturn is Champion Hurdle class if that's the yardstick. He also has that horrendous 5yo stat to overcome - not for me
Grandouet oh Jesus H Christ. If Grandouet wins a Champion Hurdle that also includes Hurricane Fly I will never watch another race again. Ever.
I didn't say Grandouet would win, I just think he's the best Nicky Henderson as got at this moment in time. Spirit Son may have come on loads over the summer but after watching the Supreme a few times over he hung right coming to the line in the Supreme and was outpaced the last 100-150 yards of the that race, I like Cheltenham form when looking at the Festival. I think Grandouet looks a different horse this year, He always travels better than anything but never found much off the bridle last year. This year he is putting races to bed and I think out of the Henderson trio if someone had a gun to My head I would go with Grandouet... Statistics and age mean nothing to Me, It depends how seriously you take all that stuff! Quelespirit - Hurricane Fly ran to 167 last year in the Champion according to the official handicapper. He's by no means guarenteed to improve on that or even run to that mark this time round. Don't forget he had an uninterrupted run last year and after he won the Irish Champion I backed him straight away for Cheltenham as he was obviously improving with every run. Its worried me a touch that hes been scratched from a few races already and its not the most ideal of preparations as Willie Mullins himself as already said. If he runs to his best he will be very hard to beat, But if he doesn't theres a few unexposed horses in the race who could be anything and could give the Fly a race i.e Zarkandar, Spirit Son, Grandouet. I wouldn't dismiss Binocular he is capable of a 170 run and hes that type of horse that you never know what your going to get on the day. He started the 2010 Champion Hurdle at 9/1. He made that price look absolutely ridiculous...
Spirit Son looks certain to miss the Irish Champion Hurdle, not been able to prepare him in time. You'd have to worried for Cheltenham now....
