What did people make of Darlan today? The manner of victory was impressive but I suspect it was flattering too. He found very little off the bridle last time at Cheltenham and my suspicion is that he would have had less in hand today than looked the case. He's a decent prospect but he doesn't look a Supreme winner to me. The 14/1 looks poor as far as I'm concerned and is more a reflection of the rest of the field than his ability. I didn't think Barry Geraghty's comments were overly positive either: When asked how good the winner is, Geraghty said: "It is hard to say. He travels so well but he was good today." I should think Mr Henderson has a few better prospects lurking in Seven Barrows. However, it is perfectly possible that I am being overly hard on him, he is unbeaten in 4 after all.
I agree, 25/1 is a good price for the form he's shown. Finished 2nd at Aintree in a bumper to Steps To Freedom and the winner has decent form both over hurdles and on the flat. Was runner-up to Colour Squadron on his first run over hurdles and the winner should've won the Tolworth on Saturday.
Regarding Darlan ..... I didn't see the race "live" as I am now back at work after an extended xmas break. I did however catch up in the evening, and I'd have to admit to being impressed. The jock was motionless after the last and he won in a hack canter. Just quite what he beat is another matter!
Waaheb out of the race, reports the RP. Short prices for unraced hurdlers, I think we have all read this story before.
Darlan didn't impress me at all tbh - very awkward at his hurdles, didn't hurdle with real fluency and made a right horlicks of the last. The fact that Geraghty was motionless just means Ruby was on a poor horse
Beaten 30 lengths by Fingal Bay at Sandown and 20 lengths by Barbatos at Cheltenham. Both those efforts were over further though.
Allure Of Illusion, 3rd behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon in the Aintree Bumper is entered in a 2m Maiden Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Saturday. He is currently a best priced 33/1 for the Supreme. http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546350&r_date=2012-01-14#raceTabs=sc_
Wasn't Allure fo Illusion the ante post plunge horse in the bumper last year ? Didn't make it in the end I seem to remember - 33s could be a very silly price if he's retained his ability after injury...
Allure Of Illusion made a pleasing hurdle debut to finish second to the favourite Joxer after being badly hampered 4 out. That occurred at a crucial stage of the race as the winner immediately quickened away afterwards leaving Ruby Walsh with a fair gap to make up. He made up the ground in good style but to be honest I thought he was going to go past the winner but he pulled out a bit more when challenged. It is hard to say whether the runner up was unlucky to lose or not. It obviously made it much more difficult but the winner seemed well on top at the line. There is clearly better to come, especially back on good ground, and he may develop into a lively outsider for the Supreme but I think he had to win today, regardless of circumstances, to make himself a major candidate. The race still lacks the star performer that it badly needs. Anybody else with any thoughts? 33/1 still available in places but now as short as 16/1, which, quite frankly, looks a bit ridiculous!
I disagree Zenyatta I thought that was a fantastic run conceding 2lbs to a fit rival. Had been off the track almost 300 days as well - I expect we will see an improved performance next time out. Joxer is a decent horse as well. SIMONSIG will hack up imo if he runs
Paul Nicholls and his team discovered a problem with Prospect Wells after the Tolworth, I couldn't believe how badly the horse had run espcially after his fine efforts previous and when you think about it the favourite for the Supreme (Steps To Freedom) only beat him an half length. I'll be keeping a look on his price leading up to the festival... http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/the-team/post-4-170112.html
I am still of the opinion that he is an interesting outsider at the Festival, and was before this news, so my view has only strengthened in light of this development. I can only hope that he is a 25/1 shot on the day but I suspect 14/1 or maybe 16/1 (if we're lucky) might be the best we can hope for. Especially considering that Mullins doesn't appear to have anything obviously better for Ruby to ride.
Thanks for posting Istabraq - I took some of the 25s for the Supreme after the Tolworth and was worried he may be going for the County instead. Glad to hear the Supreme is still the #1 target and if the op goes wll he should still get to the festival OK. I think 25s is a massive price.
Where do we think we stand at the moment? I'm strugling to look at a horse and go 'this is definitely the one for the Supreme'. Steps To Freedom is horse I mooted at the beginning of the season and to be fair, 10/1 for a favourite is a hell of a price! But....that is because of the perceived wide-open feel to the race this year. Having said that, A lot of the big guns of last season were held back until mid-late January and I suspect we might know a bit more in around 2 weeks time. The thing for me that complicates it is the Irish horses- we don't get much of a clear picture as to who is heading where over there at this time of the season.
Just confirmed arrangements Toppy and I will be going on te Tuesday again this year In the Supreme you'll not go far wrong backing whatever Geraghty rides for Henderson e/w
Hope it's Captain Conan then But I'm realisitc, I know it will be an uphill task for him. Hope he at least gets entered though and follows a similar route as Sprinter Sacre (run in the Supreme and whatever he achives there, go and improve over fences) But have a feeling that Simonsig might go and be number 1. Is there anything yet to run that might be smart?
I think Tetlami is something of the forgotten Henderson horse - has done very little wrong to date and has looked very progressive. He has winning form around Prestbury Park (a class 1 bumper) and Knight Pass, who he dismissed with contempt at Sandown on he reappearance run, is now rated 135 and probably rising. Tetlami may not set the pulse racing but if Henderson has nothing up his sleeve I could see Barry Geraghty partnering him. I'm amazed his is 20s when Simonsig and Captain Conan are between 14s and 12s.
I think this is what I will be doing this year. I think Henderson seems to have a lot of the aces but he just doesn't know which ones to run where! I very much hope this is the case. I haven't backed him yet but will be getting stuck in either as soon as he looks to be headed that way, or as soon as the NRNB concession comes in for the race. I think he would have an outstanding chance in this. Despite his pointing background, he looks every inch the 2 miler to me and the fast run 2m on good ground will surely suit him to perfection. He was absolutely hacking all over Fingal Bay at Sandown before tiring in the testing ground. Barry said he didn't get home that day but I thought he stuck on pleasingly nevertheless. I would still back him for the Neptune but would be much keener on him for the Supreme, largely because the opposition doesn't look the strongest as yet. However, it must be remembered that there is still plenty of time for a leading candidate to emerge. As for Tetlami Oddy, I agree that he hasn't done a lot wrong. The thing I have against him as that he just isn't very exciting. He just looks a thoroughly decent and honest horse but no world beater to me. I might be wrong mind. Simonsig is the only novice hurdler that has really excited me this year, and that is Fingal Bay included. He just looks to have that touch of star quality.
Zen I think it's clear Fingal Bay is an out and out stayer and I think Hobbs should be sending him to the Albert Bartlett. If he takes to fences well he will run in a Gold Cup one day I'm sure. Simonsig is clearly a strong traveller but the race time at Sandown was 33 seconds above standard. Given the race was over 2m4f and run very slowly I don't think it surprising that Simonsig looked to be going very easily. Fingal Bay does not have an amazing turn of foot, he winds it up gradually, so where Johnson was pushing away on Fingal Bay to wind things up coming to the second last, Geraghty was holding on to his horse as long as possible as he was unsure of his stamina. Sure enough, between the last 2 when Gergahty asked Simonsig to quicken and pick up Fingal Bay, there was no response. Whilst I would agree he is a decent prospect, I think the nature of the race at Sandown, together with the fact that Fingal Bay does not have explosive acceleration, made Simonsig's performance easy on the eye but perhaps flattered him somewhat?
