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Ante-Post Arrows: The 10 week run-up to The Cheltenham Festival 2012

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Jan 4, 2012.

  1. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    I did suggest the points system for a few reasons but the main ones would be to gauge a correspondents confidence (fine words are one thing but actions, such as an above avaerage bet, the most highly indicative factor) and also, as RV says, to stop the aftertimers coming on bragging after the event (at a stroke it totally does away with such a scenario which is both tiresome and infuriating), e.g. ‘I had 50 ante-post bets and although only one won I had so much on Al Ferof that I won a fortune overall’. Whether your ‘average’ bet is 50p or £500 the points system can be applied as the half-way point on the scale is your average bet and obviously therefore anything higher is in excess of this but anything lower less of a figure (personally I'm not interested in how much financially a member stakes on a horse but the pts level is of interest). I think if people highligt wagers in such a way they will also learn more about how they bet and have something to take out of the Festival as a reference as they will be able to see where they won and lost the majority of their loot and maybe realise successes/mistakes made though under/over punting. But I understand if others don’t want to go with it and that’s fine.
     
    #81
  2. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Good points SBC, but I'm not sure about the overall concept myself.

    Personally I have a moral dilema in urging people to lump on my selection(s) - I don't have an inside track to the stable and therefore any selection is just based on my own thoughts and observations, which I like to air, but only to join in the general discussions/debates. I agree that it's possible to fancy something more or less than something else, but I'd find it difficult to grade these.

    Some of the postees on here, including yourself SBC, are quite elequent and thorough in discussing your selections and the reasoning thereof. Others may not be quite so proficient at this - I, for one - but I still manage to find winners occasionally!

    With regard to after-timing - I don't think we need worry about that on this forum, do we?

    Just my tuppence worth :)
     
    #82
  3. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    "With regard to after-timing - I don't think we need worry about that on this forum, do we?"

    Reebok: I don't think so either, e.g. my computer has a built-in anti-after-timing device...............:laugh:

    Seriously, see what SBC is getting at though, and his ideas are good ones for sure. For me, I'll just wait nearer the day, prices are always good there and the "early bird odds with GP" are usually good enough................
     
    #83
  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    0.5pt e/w Prospect Wells Supreme Novices @25/1 Totesport

    1pt win Last Instalment RSA @7/1 Totesport
     
    #84
  5. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    I'm tempted with this too. We know he will run, we know he will like the likely good ground, we know he will like the strong pace, we know he handles the track. I think he is better than he has shown and even the form he has entitles him to be far shorter in the betting given the horse that beat him at Cheltenham, Steps To Freedom, is still the favourite.

    Sound investment in my opinion. <cheers>
     
    #85
  6. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    How much is 1pt for you guys?
     
    #86
  7. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    1 out of 5 on a scale of 1 to 5 (1 small, 5 big) :)
     
    #87
  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    1pt Treble (I know)

    Big Bucks
    Quevega (Mares hurdle)
    Long Run
     
    #88
  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Tote place Nass? <laugh>
     
    #89
  10. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    My finalised suggestion:

    1 point: Small(est) stake. Perhaps likely to be larger odds. An outsider who would probably be a surprise winner, but not without glimmers of good form.

    2 points: Just below average stake. A lively outsider with slightly more hope than expectation, but one that would not shock the world if it went close.

    3 points: Your standard betting stake. A healthy bet which you think is 'live' going into the festival.

    4 points. Bigger than average stake. Strong claims of being in the shakeup.

    5 points: Your best chance of the festival.



    Please let me know if this is acceptable.
     
    #90

  11. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Oddy, you know full well you can't do that antepost <laugh> or I would <laugh>
     
    #91
  12. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    Hi chaps-Does anyone know what the best odds are for treble on long run/Big bucks/Quevaga-there the only bankers i can see so far-Hurricane fly and sprinter sacre wouldnt be far away either.Just won E50 in a footie compo and want to invest wisely:emoticon-0114-dull:emoticon-0100-smile
     
    #92
  13. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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  14. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    ah man cant get into that site in work!! has anyone had the experience of being in the bookies during a robbery-two lads came in yesterday with what seemed two water pistols and the lad behind the desk just dived a pressed the panic button and were gone in 20 secs and got nothing!! He told me if he had given anything over they would be back next week and new the guns were fake.Brave man!!
     
    #94
  15. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Ste - the image basically shows PP and Bill Hills are the two bookies offering the best combined odds
     
    #95
  16. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    my bad,didnt notice the image,cheers gents-i'm getting on that!
     
    #96
  17. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Keep an eye on Betfair....they have just added some multiple bets to their antepost markets. The odds looked more than fair actually.
     
    #97
  18. tidalbay

    tidalbay Member

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    dont have any antepost bets this year - giving up that policy this year - from the above bets I like grizzly's 35/1 for Unaccompanied for the Champion Hurdle taken prior to the Istalbraq - in my view one of the most impressive performances I have seen from any horse this season. Maybe Weld's long awaited Cheltenham Festival winner could finally be it, however it is 5/1 for the mares hurdle and if it takes part in this then Quevega will almost certainly be odds against on the day.

    I will put up Sir Johnson for the Cheltenham bumper currently around 25/1 33's in some places. Have had some successes at backing in this race at big prices in recent years (Cheltenian, Hairy Molly, Missed That (antepost) and Dunguib (antepost)).

    One from the emerald isle is MonksIsland (Noel Meade) 16/1 for the Neptune very impressive last week and relative formlines look to be rock solid. If this horse handles quicker conditions it should take some beating in this race, noting it is difficult to offer comparisons with English form.

    Similarly Samain trained by Willie Mullins has not been seen yet jumping a hurdle or indeed this season, however this hammered a number of horses in bumpers last season that have performed credibly in novice hurdles in Ireland including Dylan Ross. Also formlines would indicate it has a better chance than Cash & Go in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, which is as short as 16/1. Currently this horse appears to be value at 25/1 and will look for entries in the coming weeks.
     
    #98
  19. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    1pt e/w Little Josh Cheltenham Gold Cup 50/1 Totesport (NRNB)

    I mailed the stable about him just before christmas and he is due out again end of January. I've a feeling they may be targetting him at the Argento Chase then the Gold Cup and he wouldn't be the first Paddy Power winner to lift the Blua Riband ;). I think he will only run in the CGC if the makes a pleasing comeback and looks able to give a good account of himself so the NRNB should kick in if he disappoints on his comeback.
     
    #99
  20. the don

    the don Well-Known Member

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    Oddy, which bookies are NRNB? Bet 365 doesnt seem to be yet....
     
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