I was just thinking that for every poor decision we have been rather fortunate. Martin v leeds , Bamba goal/foul , Lallana goal that never was v Brighton. This was balanced out by 2 dubious pens v Brighton and watford maybe aswell. I was just thinking about lambert's sending off and chambers getting his marching orders yesterday.
I don't think its luck as such, I just think referees are very inconsistent in what they give or don't give
It may even out in the League, but what about in one off games such as play-off final (shudders and goes to lie down).
Not sure luck evens itself out entirely, but the league position you end up with tends to be the one you deserve on merit. Some calls you win and some you lose. Some refs play to the very letter of the law and send players off for inoccuous looking incidents, others calm things down and carry on.
The old adage of the lazy pundit, that luck evens itself out over a season, is in my opinion, complete twaddle. To me, it is a matter of teams in form and brimming with confidence, better quality teams, teams with an overly aggressive attitude, and the opposite of these. And in middle is a referee who can be inconsistent within the same game, and different referees are inconsistent throughout a season. There are so many variables here that the lazy could resort to luck, as a reason, but I'll bet that the day some mathematician decides to work out a formula for how the correct variables [I'm not saying the ones I've suggested are correct] can be handled, then luck will disappear.
I dont think its the luck which evens out, it's the incompetance. Bad referees decisions happen at random, although there is evidence of a skewed distribution around Old Trafford, which also shows that same shape in "time added on" averages. I have checked with Beddy, and it seems that the larger the number of trials, the smaller the variance from the mean becomes. Well, actually what he said was that, "it probably all comes out in the wash" but I'm sure that is what he meant. I concur, but as others have said, it's no consolation if the decision goes against you in one important match. We can certainly surely agree that the refs foul-ups even themselves out over a decade or so, but that doesn't help much either.
Football is a game played by human beings and controlled by human beings...there will always be variables. Perfection is impossible and if it was judged by machines, we'd complain that the machines didn't understand the ethos of the game. There has to be room for refs to let the game flow and to use judgement on intent. They won't always get it right, but do we get everything right in life.
There was a comment I heard recently that Manchester United have changed their team selection by leaving out Howard Webb. Of course, it wouldn't be even the slightest bit amusing if there wasn't a feeling in people's minds that decisions didn't go ManU's way from time to time.
It has crossed my mind that we may actually be benefitting from the 'Man U' effect. I've also had the suspicion that at home we are getting more decisions in our favour than we used to.
There you go again quoting me out of context..........."It will probably come out in the wash" I was talking about the teams dirty shorts!!!...... In truth though teams make their own luck......if you are playing with flare and confidence you try something and it may or may not come off. However because you have tried something unusual, something is likely to happen. A deflection, a miss timed tackle in the penalty area, a lucky bounce, whatever, but you made it happen. When you are not playing with confidence you don't try things, you are over cautious. So things tend not to happen. As for Refs.....that as they say is a lottery.........If they think they see something they blow for it, if they are not sure they don't. It is how they see it on the day....nothing we can do about it. Other than of course to call his parentage into question when we disagree..........
The reason that Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea etc (and this season, ourselves) seem to get more penaltiy decisions given for them, and teams at the bottom seem to get more given against them, is becuase the ball spends more time at that end of the pitch. So there are going to be more chances of giving away a penalty, whether it be a correct or incorrect decision.
