The Cheltenham Gold Cup - Friday 16th March

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Just 10 weeks until the Cheltenham Festival begins in March. I posted this (on my Blog) before Tom Segal put up Captain Chris. As you can see I think his logic is sound and I agree with it completely.

The biggest race of them all and the market looks very different to what we might have expected a few months back. I am sure that most, myself included, did not expect Kauto Star to be sitting pretty as the 2nd favourite for the Gold Cup at the turn of the year. Perhaps even more surprising is the recent news that Grands Crus, the outstanding staying novice, is expected to take his chance in the race.

Long Run (11/4) - 2nd in both the Betfair Chase and the King George to the great Kauto Star. He is looking evermore the out and out stayer as he ages and the Gold Cup looks to be his race. I said after the Gold Cup in 2011 that I suspected he might be vulnerable in the King George, but that he would win the Gold Cup. I have been vindicated on the first part of that prediction and think there is every chance that the second will come true. He just lacks a bit of pace and he was never quite getting to Kauto Star round the flat 3m at Kempton. The extra 2 and a half furlongs and Cheltenham's uphill finish are just what he needs. That is no secret and he remains a solid favourite at a best priced 11/4 despite not getting his head in front this term. Some have suggested the Gold Cup is a formality for him but I would not go that far. He is the most likely winner but I can envisage circumstances that would favour Kauto Star. He drifted to as big as 3/1 after the King George and that price was snapped up. It is easy to think that the 11/4 might not last long either. The worry is that he is due to have a prep race at Newbury and I can easily envisage a less than impressive performance from him in that. That could lead to his price drifting a little. That said I think I would rather back him on the day.

Kauto Star (9/2) - Not many would have put him forward as a Gold Cup contender a few months back but it goes to show just how quickly things can change. He is a general 4/1 chance but Sportingbet and William Hill go 9/2, with Ladbrokes, already non-runner-no-bet, at 3/1. My initial impression when looking at the odds was that the 9/2 looks excellent value. He will not race again between now and the Festival, and provided he lines-up on the day there is simply no way he can be any bigger than 3/1. His adoring public will pile in once again, and for good reason. As his trainer Paul Nicholls said, if he were an 8 year old he would be favourite for the Gold Cup, and he has a point. It must be remembered that, whilst the stamina sapping contest that is the Gold Cup does not necessarily play to his strengths, he is a dual winner of the race. It is also easy to argue that he should have won more. He is one of the outstanding steeplechasers of all time and it would be ludicrous to write him off for anything. He has already made fools of many this season. I am his biggest fan and definitely think he can win the Gold Cup in March. A few factors will be more in Long Run's favour but there are a conditions which can redress that balance. For example, a small and weak field with no front runners on good ground will play right into Kauto Star's hands. That scenario looks entirely plausible at this stage and my final opinion will depend on conditions. Like many I have Long Run as the most likely winner, but only just.

Grands Crus (9/1) - The outstanding staying novice chaser this season with wins at Cheltenham, Newbury and Kempton. In particular his win on Boxing Day in the Grade 1 Feltham was most taking. He jumped to the front and readily put the race to bed some way out. It was then a case of maintaining the gallop which he did with ease. The one question mark for me is his stamina. This might seem surprising given he has a lot of form over 3m, including a 2nd in the World Hurdle, but he has so much pace that it must at least be a small worry. In the Feltham both Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were closing at the finish but that may be misleading given that Grands Crus was being eased close home. I had my doubts about his jumping but he has proven me wrong on that front. My chief concern was his build but his physical development over the summer has been quite striking. He is clearly very good indeed and it is not impossible that he has found significant improvement over the summer. The current plan is to run in the Argento on Trials Day at Cheltenham and that might tell us more. The owner is favouring the Gold Cup and if allowed to take his chance is certainly worthy of consideration. He is a general 8/1 chance, but is available at 6/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. If he wins the Argento well, and there is no reason why he shouldn't, then that might look a decent price.

Synchonised (12/1) - A good winner of the Lexus Chase but I can only think that had more to do with the weakness of the Irish Staying Chasers than his own ability. Rubi Light looked to stay but not relish the trip, whilst Quito De La Roque is slow. I though the same comment applied to Synchronised but he made them look pedestrian in behind. However, I have my doubts about whether he is a proper Gold Cup horse and the likely good ground will not be in his favour. Worthy of his place in the line-up but not one for me.

Captain Chris (Was 25/1, now 16/1) - I am a big fan of this horse and he ran much as I expected in the King George. He has always been best in the spring on proper good ground and after seeing him in the paddock at Kempton I am convinced the same will happen this season. It must be remembered that he failed to get off the mark over fences until February last year before taking Grade 1 prizes at Cheltenham and Punchestown. In that context his 3rd in the King George, albeit well adrift of the leading pair, is hugely creditable. I think he stayed OK but just tired in the closing stages. It is perhaps the case that his interrupted preparation told. He would still have finished 3rd but with one more race he might have been a bit closer. He looked to lack a bit of experience in places and his jumping was a little rusty. I think back on spring ground, round a big galloping track, with a touch more experience he can go well again.

Time For Rupert (20/1) - Was all the rage at this time last year (very similar to Grands Crus) but I have always been of the opinion that he is hugely overrated. Nothing he has done this season has changed that. Finished 2nd in the Charlie Hall but well and truly put in his place by Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. Won at weak race at Newbury last time but hardly in impressive fashion. He will need it to be soft if he is to have any chance. I have never seen him as a Gold Cup contender and nothing this season has persuaded me otherwise.

Weird Al (25/1) - Won the Charlie Hall and finished a fair 3rd in the Betfair Chase. He ran really poorly on both starts last season but if you take those two starts out of the equation then his record looks quite impressive. He likes Cheltenham, he has handled good ground, and he stays well but is not devoid of pace. I think he has a few things in his favour, especially as he is being targeted at the race by his excellent trainer Donald McCain. He goes well fresh so I think he is perhaps a little overpriced. Why Time For Rupert is shorter than him is beyond me.

Diamond Harry (25/1) - As has been the case before he missed the King George after being lame just before the race. He is fragile and his ability to make the race, let alone win it, must be doubtful. His best form has been first time out on flat galloping tracks. His one race at Cheltenham was in the RSA when he ran a real clunker. The fact that he was beaten in the Betfair Chase in ideal conditions tells me he's not quite up to this level. His supporters have said he will improve for the run but he has never done that in the past so I see no reason why that should be the case this time around. His next target is likely to be the Argento.

Jessies Dream (25/1) - Yet to be seen this season but trainer Gordon Elliott thinks he can be a danger in the Gold Cup. I am less convinced. For one he was 2nd in the RSA and the form of that race is truly appalling. In his last two starts he finished a close second to Magnanimity (a 50l 8th in the Lexus) and Bostons Angel (who could only finish 3rd behind Golan Way at Sandown last time) in the RSA. That form looks incredibly weak and unless he shows otherwise he is very difficult to fancy.

Quito De La Roque (33/1) - The main hope for Ireland but his bubble was burst when only 3rd in the Lexus Chase. He is slow and will need soft ground and a relentless pace for him to stand any chance in this. He is not one for me.

Rubi Light (33/1) - One place in front of Quito De La Roque in the Lexus but whilst he stayed OK I am of the opinion that a drop back in trip will help him out. The Lexus probably was not the strongest of races so the fact that he could not win that leaves him with a bit to find. Connections also suggested that the ground was plenty quick enough for him and that must be a concern whether he comes here or goes for the Ryanair. I did quite like him as a lively outsider but not any more.

Burton Port (40/1) - I am still uncertain about what his schedule will be and it seems that his participation is still very much up in the air. If he did run he would have an EW chance but I think he needs to improve considerably on anything we have seen so far. He was close to Diamond Harry in the Hennessy and we have already seen that he looks a shade below top class. The likelihood is that the same comments will apply to Burton Port too.

 

Conclusion - At this stage it is hard to see beyond the established duo of Long Run and Kauto Star. I think Long Run a rightful favourite but, as at Kempton, I am uncertain whether there should be such a price discrepancy between the two. If you followed the advise to back Kauto Star for the King George then you could certainly do worse than reinvesting your stake for the Gold Cup. Grands Crus is interesting but novices have a poor record and I get the feeling that it is the owner who wants to run in the Gold Cup, and not David Pipe. Weird Al is perhaps a little overpriced, and the same comment applies to Captain Chris. I would have the race between those 5 at this early stage, with preference, as the betting would suggest, with the established duo. The only price that looks worth taking is the 9/2 about Kauto Star because I would be surprised if that lasted very long.

 

Zen - good write up.

I'll offer my views, albeit slightly briefer:

Long Run - worthy fav, disappointed this season and jumping has gone to pieces on occasions which doesn't bode well for him at Cheltenham, but I think he will be trained to the minute and should retain his crown.

Kauto Star - the Nations favourite horse, and wouldn't it be a complete fairytale if he was to regain his crown for a second time ?
Sorry to upset the majority but I don't see it happening, I thought he was too old last year and in a real stamina sapping test this isn't his ideal trip, yes he was good enough to win two of the things and that just highlights the quality of the horse (similar to Dessie who hated Cheltenham and cut in the ground), a place is the best this one can get IMO, 12 year olds in championship races just don't happen.
If I were a bookie I'd be happy laying 9/2.

Captain Chris - I've watched the King George back a few times and agree that he is the one to take from the race, unfortunately he hasn't jumped that fluently this term and this is stark contract to his jumping last terms when landing the Arkle, moreover his jumping went to pot when put under pressure up the Kempton straight, does the horse remember his Exeter tumble ?
I don't think stamina will get in his way but sketchy jumping will, I'd be surprised if connections take this route, the Queen Mother or Ryanair look better options to me.

Grand Crus - so just how good is Big Bucks then ?
This one is running scared of the World Hurdle champion having been put firmly in his place twice, yet after just three chases he could find himself lining up in a Gold Cup and not just lining up actually having a definite shot at glory.
I am totally against novices running in championship races but I think in a year where the genuine GC challengers are few and far between this one has a real chance.
Bullying novices hasn't really tested his jumping although he looks to have taken to fences well and is built to jump them, if he's put against seasoned pros between now and March (Racing Post maybe) and puts in a real display I will be seriously tempted to back this one.
There are some worrying trends that put you off backing Feltham winners in the RSA and this is generally because of the stamina demands of Cheltenham, question is will the Gold Cup be any more stamina sapping than the RSA ?
I'm not sure.

I can't make a serious case for any of the others, there's a chance one or two of last seasons RSA horses relish the Spring ground and run above expectations, personally I think they're all more like to win Nationals than Gold Cups.
So at the moment I think I could only back Grand Crus despite his inexperience, with a saver on Long Run.

 

Long Run wins.

 

I just think, remarkably, that people are writing off Kauto Star too easily. We all know that horses don't win Championship races at 12 but Kauto Star's might.

I can see it being a small, weak field, most likely on good ground, with no obvious pace (or at least not a definite front runner who will guarantee a flat out gallop for a long way). That will play ideally into Kauto's hands. He's worth backing now because he can only shorten. Who I actually fancy for the race wi9ll largely depend on the precise conditions on the day. I do think Kauto has a very good chance though. Write him off at your peril.

 

As great as KS has been, I can't be having a 12yo for the Gold Cup, and of all the tracks KS has won big races at, you would have to say Cheltenham has proved to be his achillies heel. Not saying he is not effective at Cheltenham, but he certainly isn't as good around there as has been at Haydock or Kempton for example. Even in his prime on occasions he was found wanting at Cheltenham. I know he has had the better of Long Run twice this season, but I'm convinced Long Runs younger legs will see him out stay KS up the Cheltenham hill, just as he did last year.

Long Run is obviously a worthy favourite, he has the course and distance form, and he is 7 years old. His jumping has been a little eratic this season, but he still proved how big an engine he has when chasing KS all the way to the line in the KG, I think even if he jumps poorly in the Gold Cup, his ability to see the trip out better will see him beat KS.

If I was going for an outsider, I'd say Captain Chris is the bet, he seemed to get a little outpaced at Kempton and then ran on very well. He wouldn't be the first Arkle winner to stay on well after 3m+ races, look at the way Tidal Bay used to stay on. The other big positive for CC is the way he improved stacks at the festival last year, he didn't run that well before the festival, but come the spring ground he reversed form with horse's who had beat him earlier in the season.

Grands Crus is one of the most promising novices around, but I'm not sure his price is a fair one, when you consider he could still run in the RSA

 

Taking account of Zenyatta's and Grizzly's comprehensive comments above I decided to review The Betfair, The Feltham and The King George.

I think Long Run and Kauto Star should be joint favourites but will probably increase my ante post on Kauto Star if any of the main bookmakers go bigger than 4/1. As Long Run will probably have another run (The Aon at Newbury over 3 miles) and 'may' not look too impressive his price could move to 3/1 so I will wait.

The value on Captain Chris has gone!

Two outsiders who interest me are Weird Al who will probably go to the Gold Cup without another run; this will suit the horse who has a good record when fresh. The other outsider I will consider is Burton Port as I thought his run in the 2010 Hennessy showed he will, if fit and well, stay the extra distance of the Gold Cup. He has also run well in the RSA against Weapon's Amnesty; a horse who has run two great races at Cheltenham.

This brings me to Grands Crus. My review of The Feltham makes me think that this novice fits in the Gold Cup. A small field on good ground is likely so I reiterate some points I have made earlier:

1. The run against the exceptional Big Bucks in the 2011 Stayer's Hurdle.
2. The regard that Paul Nicholls holds The Feltham runner up.
3. Waiting fifteen months until the 2013 Gold Cup.

The NRNB price of 6/1 with Ladbrokes still looks inviting as a win or good second in The Argento on Trials Day will see his price collapse.

Where have the last nine and a half months gone!!

Have just booked my racing trips to Paris for 2012; start of June to Chantilly for the Prix du Jockey Club and the start of November for 'The Week-End International de L'Obstacle' at Auteuil. My advice to anyone interested in the 'jumps' is to treat themselves to these two days; on the Sunday the racing is equal to a day at the Festival and costs 4 euros entrance.

 

I didn't realise pricewise had tipped up Captain Chris, so ye the value probably has gone. Ive just been looking through the gold cup section in today's RP, and after reading the comments from the trainers, the best bet to me is What A Friend at 40/1, after Paul Nicholls has said that the Gold Cup is his target.

The race doesn't look to have much strengh in depth, in comparison to last year, so I could see WAF making the frame this year. Of the horse's who finished infront of him last year Long Run's jumping has been disappointing, Denman is retired, and Kauto Star is a year older, whilst What A Friend will probably have found further improvement now he is 9 (generally the peak age for a Gold Cup horse) so should be able to reverse the neck KS beat him by last year.

Not saying he is going to win the Gold Cup, but I'm convinced he will out run those odds of 40/1, and looks like a decent EW bet

 

I shall be there on 16th March 2 words for you

LONG RUN- I shall not be losing faith in him- He is suited much better to the cheltenham track and will retain his title!

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WF - can't you super impose Geraghty or AP or any proper jock on him ?

 

Long Run, he is a rare antepost bet for me (keep topping up when I get the rare winner), the race is going to be a stamina test and if he runs to anywhere near where he was last season then he will romp home. I think Grands Crus is the one that is most interesting in opposition but I still need to be convinced about a novice in the Gold Cup.

Apart from the big three it looks dire to be frank.

 

Now come on Woolcombe. You know that there is just one thing that everybody wants and that is to enjoy the following scenes one more time!

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It would be terrific to see that and the atmosphere would be unbelievable but I just dont think will happen! So we shall be seeing this again!!

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rofl!!

 

What A Friend is the forgotten horse.

 

Has to be Mr Henderson’s Long Run for me and to be honest would be fairly confident of him putting a 2nd CGC in his locker. Kauto Star would be the obvious danger but I just don’t think that 26.5 furlongs round Cheltenham is his absolute ideal. But if both turn up fit and healthy in 72 days hence can’t really see beyond them filling the first 2 places.

I think Grands Cru will run in the CGC because of who his connections are rather than anything else – they’ve no patience and can’t condition a horse to keep returning to the ‘top table’ season after season so may try to ‘cash in’ this time around. Were he with Mr Henderson or Mr Nicholls they’d protect his long term future and put him nowhere near the CGC this season. Not for me.

Of the rest Weird Al impressed me in the ‘Betfair Chase’ and is I think capable of snatching a place. Meanwhile, the joker in the old pack has to Burton Port. Deffo no 40/1 chance if he can be got back on the track in the best of health. And in Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, he is in the best possible yard to ensure this happens.

 

As promised in my previous thread, here we go with the first entries for Cheltenham!

Press Release:

LONG RUN AND KAUTO STAR HEAD 34 ENTRIES FOR 2012 BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

- CHINA ROCK ON COMEBACK TRAIL FOLLOWING STEM CELL TREATMENT​

The £500,000 Grade One Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup is the highlight of The Festival and the 2012 renewal, which takes place on Friday, March 16, has attracted 34 entries.

Last year’s renewal of chasing’s Blue Riband is a race that will live long in the memory as the Nicky Henderson-trained Long Run came home seven lengths clear under amateur Sam Waley-Cohen of previous winners Denman and Kauto Star. Kauto Star subsequently disappointed at Punchestown and was written off by some but has proved this season that he is right back to his very best, getting the better of Long Run in both the Betfair Chase and the William Hill King George VI Chase, which he won for a record fifth time. If successful, Kauto Star would become only the third 12-year-old to succeed and the first since What A Myth in 1969. Kauto Star’s trainer Paul Nicholls, who has four other entries, would join Tom Dreaper as the most successful trainer in the race’s history with five victories if he were to saddle the winner in 2012.

Several progressive younger performers are engaged such as 2011 Arkle Trophy Chase winner Captain Chris, Weird Al, Diamond Harry, Bostons Angel, Synchronised and Jessies Dream, while perhaps the most intriguing entry of all is Grands Crus, who could attempt to become the first novice to prevail since Captain Christy in 1974.

The last Irish-trained winner of the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup was War Of Attrition in 2006 and there are eight contenders from Ireland in the 2012 race. War Of Attrition was trained by Mouse Morris and the Fethard handler could be represented this year by China Rock. The nine-year-old led for much of the race in last year’s Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup before being pulled up before the second last but is now on the comeback trail following stem cell treatment.

Morris revealed: “China Rock is running over hurdles at Punchestown on Saturday and we hope that he can head to Cheltenham once again as he was in the process of running a big race before breaking down in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup last year.

“He had stem cell treatment, like War Of Attrition received, afterwards and has been back in training quite a while now.

“The ground is important to him as he wants a decent surface. Obviously, every day is a bonus when a horse comes back from a tendon injury like his but he’s going well and the plan is to head to Cheltenham.”

This media pack contains the entries, detailed statistics and past results for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup plus other interesting statistics surrounding The Festival.

 

THE BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP​

Class 1, Grade 1, £500,000 Total Prize Fund. 3.20pm, Cheltenham, Friday, March 16, 2012. Three miles, two and a half furlongs. For 5yo+ which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including March 9 - horses which are not qualified for a rating in GB, IRE or FR may also be entered & such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances up to and including March 9 would merit a minimum rating of 130 (the decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 5yo 11st 9lb, 6yo+ 11st 10lb. Allowances: mares 7lb. Entries closed January 10, entries revealed January 11 (34 entries), scratchings deadline February 14, £25,000 supplementary entry stage & six-day confirmation stage March 10 Final 48-hour declaration stage, 10.00am, March 14. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, January 9.


Form Horse Age Owner Trainer

4FP12-1 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 11 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
52-FU11 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
4111-U3 BOSTONS ANGEL (IRE) 8 Elder Scouller Jessica Harrington IRE
11121/2- BURTON PORT (IRE) 8 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson
211-1U3 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
640-31P CARRUTHERS 9 The Oaksey Partnership Mark Bradstock
2/1134P- CHINA ROCK (IRE) 9 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE
311P/1-4 DIAMOND HARRY 9 Paul Duffy Diamond Partnership Nick Williams
11121-1 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 9 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
22-6111 GRANDS CRUS (FR) 7 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe
03215U HALLEY (FR) 5 PJL Racing & Tom George Tom George
40P-41F HEY BIG SPENDER (IRE) 9 Brocade Racing Colin Tizzard
30/1122- JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 9 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE
131/321- JUNIOR 9 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe
133-P11 KAUTO STAR (FR) 12 Clive Smith Paul Nicholls
145-026 KNOCKARA BEAU (IRE) 9 Bill Trueman George Charlton
16/1155- LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/311-22 LONG RUN (FR) 7 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
51124-0 MAGNANIMITY (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
142-132 MEDERMIT (FR) 8 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King
1115-F3 MIDNIGHT CHASE 10 Lady Clarke Neil Mulholland
463F/-52 MON MOME (FR) 12 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
5141-5U POQUELIN (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
1FF-F11 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
111-113 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE
13-P031 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
UF-4U02 THE GIANT BOLSTER 7 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater
3/216-B4 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 11 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
113P-11 THE MINACK (IRE) 8 Graham Roach Paul Nicholls
3226U-3 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 11 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
115-251 TIME FOR RUPERT (IRE) 8 Littlecote Racing Partnership Paul Webber
1134-P4 WAYWARD PRINCE 8 John & Hilary Parrott Ian Williams
1/10P-13 WEIRD AL (IRE) 9 Brannon Dennis Dick Holden Donald McCain
1/524P-3 WHAT A FRIEND 9 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls

34 entries
8 Irish-trained


Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup – sponsors bet: 11/4 Long Run, 4 Kauto Star, 8 Grands Crus, 10 Synchronised, 16 Captain Chris, 20 Time For Rupert, 25 Diamond Harry, Jessies Dream, Quel Esprit, Quito de la Roque, The Minack, Weird Al, 33 Albertas Run, Finians Rainbow, 40 Bostons Angel, Burton Port, Junior, Medermit, Midnight Chase, What A Friend, 50 Apt Approach, Carruthers, Little Josh, 66 China Rock, Magnanimity, Poquelin, Tidal Bay, The Giant Bolster, The Midnight Club, Wayward Prince, 100 Hey Big Spender, Mon Mome, 150 Halley, Knockara Beau.

Non runner, no bet - ¼ 1-2-3

 

Didn't expect to see Finian's Rainbow or Medermit in there!!