Back to Cheltenham Festival Previews - Index Often maligned by racing purists as a cop out for horses that don’t have the speed for the Queen Mother Champion Chase and don’t stay the Gold Cup trip, the Ryanair Chase has however quickly established itself as a fiercely competitive Grade 1 at the festival and for me the intermediate distance makes for a very attractive spectacle which mixes speed with stamina. Noble Prince (5/1) – Paul Nolan’s German-bred son of Montjeu first graced the Cheltenham Festival in 2010 when a very decent 5th in the Vincent O’Brien. He then embarked on a chasing career which saw him win the Jewson at last year’s festival (showing he has the stamina for a Ryanair) and it looks highly likely that he will contest the Ryanair having been beaten in his last 3 starts over shorter (the last 2 by Big Zeb). For me at this stage he looks a vulnerable favourite, particularly on his form behind Realt Dubh and Wishfull Thinking and I just feel he lacks that touch of class to take this race. Rubi Light (6/1) – the French-bred gelding started his chase career in handicap company but quickly progressed up the ranks and took the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase (20f) last February in impressive fashion from Roberto Goldback before going on to run an absolute blinder in last years Ryanair, finishing 3L 3rd behind Albertas Run and Kalahari King. This season he took the John Durkan in very impressive style from Joncol before running out of gas when beaten by Synchronised in that muddling Lexus. For me his youth and exuberance make him the one to beat this time around. Captain Chris (7/1) – Phillip Hobbs Arkle winner dramatically unseated Richard Johnson at the last on seasonal debut before running an admirable race in the King George, plugging on to secure 3rd place. I have personally never thought of him as a staying chaser and I think the Ryanair could be tailor made for him. He showed a profound liking for the course and the hill in his Arkle victory and I’m sure he will be in the mix coming off the final bend. Major player. Riverside Theatre (10/1) – A high class Nicky Henderson inmate who put up a career-best effort in February to take the Ascot Chase but has been sidelined since with a stress fracture of the pelvis. He couldn’t be got ready for a tilt at the King George and the worry has to be whether he will even make the race, never mind be in peak condition. Fingers crossed he will for he is a very exciting chaser, but too risky a betting proposition for me at this stage. Albertas Run (10/1) – A dual winner of this race and triple festival winner after his RSA chase win as a novice. Possesses the required mixture of speed and stamina coupled with clean jumping and an iron will-to-win which is a mirror image of his regular jockey AP McCoy. Although he is now 10 years old Jonjo has a knack of getting him ready for the festival and with good spring ground the norm these days it would be a brave man to write him off. Kauto Stone (10/1) – A half-brother to Kauto Star, he fairly waltzed away with the Ladrbrokes.com chase at Down Royal on debut for Paul Nicholls, before finding a bang in form Sizing Europe too hot to handle over 2 miles in the Tingle Creek. A strong traveller and accurate jumper, the Ryanair could be right up his street and it will be interesting to see where he goes next – I would like to see him have another run before the festival so will await the outcome of that before passing final judgement. A player. Great Endeavour (12/1) – A most unlucky loser at last year’s festival when falling 2 out in the big handicap on day 1 won by Bensalem. He showed that was no fluke by taking the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November off a mark of 147 and ran a cracker off the same mark to finish 4th in the Hennessy. Looks to me like he needs a longer trip and I can’t fancy him for the Ryanair where there is a bigger emphasis on speed. We then get into the “will he or won’t he” horses but here some of those I like: Realt Dubh – obvious fitness worries but if Noel Meade can get a couple of runs into him and he wins well then he would go to Cheltenham with a big chance. Medermit – is staring to show some consistency in his races and also starting to push a 160 rating. If it all comes together for him on the day he could run a big race. Gauvain – well beaten in this last year but to me he is much better fresh and if connections choose to send him to the festival without a prior run he could show that his victory in the Peterborough Chase was no fluke. Conclusion: I think Rubi Light looks the standout horse in the field and his younger legs may just give him the edge over the dual champion Albertas Run this time around. I actually think Rubi Light could go off something like 3/1 fav on the day as I expect the Irish to get stuck into him on the day if he turns up in good form. One horse I really hope we see there is Realt Dubh and he is the one who looks a bit of value at this early stage. If he wins well on comeback I would expect him to be pushing for favouritism.
I can't see Captain Chris making the line up for the Gold Cup. I don't think hes good enough but if he turns up here he will take all the beating 2 mile 4 will be right up his street...
I'm not convinced age has caught up with Albertas Run yet and there's no question the Spring, the hill and AP bring out the best in this one, 10/1 about a horse who has won the last 2 runnings and has an RSA win under his belt too seems exceptional to me and could easily tempt me in for my second ante post of the millennium. Could be a high class renewal this year but this fella is proven....
I had him at 14/1 when he won 2 years ago and deserted him last year He has to be worth an e/w ante post at those odds, I think if you shop around you might get 12s Grizzly - I was just going on B365 prices.
Not really kept up with the Rubi Light form, has the horse ever jumped at a hectic pace in a good field? He will need to this year if AP and AR go out to break the field as they did last season.
Oddy - I backed Poquelin and Kalahari King last two years, I just love bridesmaids 12s would be a great price because he sits in a small group of horses who have a single target
The most competitive grade 1 race of the week by far , illustrated by the fact that the favourite is available @ 5/1 and the horse going for a hatrick in the race is a whooping 10/1 could any of u imagine big bucks being 10s ...... I know what Albertas run does from after Aintree and before Cheltenham is a far cry from the dominance big bucks has shown but he's obviously a spring horse and has won top races at the festival 3 times now , a favorite of mine having had a AP slip of 33/1 on him when he won the rsa and 28/1 AP slip when he won his first Ryan air aswell as having a bet on him both days too , really couldn't believe the price he was aloud to go off at last year so used him as a saver on my selection ruby light who placed at 25/1 ! A lucky race for me as I had imperial commander too the year he won , but if asked now who will win could make a case for probably 10 horses!!!! Much more interesting than the big 4 races where they r 2 horse races at best
Most competitive? I can't be having that, the Champion Hurdle surely has to be more competitive than the Ryanair.
The fly has to beat a weaker field than last year in my eyes. He runs to the same level as last year he wins similarly as does big bucks , long run and sizing Europe
Really? The Champion Hurdle has lost Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky (probably) and Menorah, but gained Zarkandar, Spirit Son, Unaccompanied, Binocular and Grandouet - all of whom I rate over Menorah at least. I'd say that the Champion Hurdle has got tougher on average... although I'll grant you that if HF runs at the same level as last year he wins. I do agree that if HF and BB run to the same level as last year then they win, but I'd dispute Long Run and Sizing Europe. I think Finians Rainbow, Kauto Star, Captain Chris and possibly Grands Crus mean that those two Champions will have to work harder this year.
Without Denman and defending champion imperial commander I think last years runners were stronger than this in terms of depth to the race. Unaccompanied on beat thousand stars with a rare poor race by ruby recieving wieght , zakarander is yet to b seen this season and as with all previous year triumph winners/ runners it will have to b a weak champ hurdle for a 5yo to win it . Last years runner up and last years supreme winner has defected to chases as has numerous decent Irish novices from last year such as first lieutenant, and let's not forget when u belittle menorah , his form last year was unbeaten with 2 Cheltenham wins as well as reigning supreme winner , I never fancied him but a lot of shrewd judges did . As for Fijian rainbow
Finians rainbow won't beat big zeb and I don't think gerarty will differ from my opinion and he is a very good judge 99% of the time picks the right horse when given the choice and I think sizing beats big zeb again so to my mind 3rd at best unless the two mentioned fall and both have improved on that front over the last few years
Yes but the question was 'to what level will the winner have to run'. Imperial Commander was pulled up I think, or if not then finished very low, in which case didn't really affect the level to which Long Run had to run. Denman was and did, but if you ignore the form of Kauto and Denman from last year (bear with me on Denman) then my point is that Long Run finished 11 lengths clear of What a Friend in fourth. I think Kauto, Captain Chris and Grands Crus could all easily be 11 lengths clear of What a Friend this year, so Long Run for me will have to run a better race than last year. I'd have to disagree here, I think Unaccompanied has won a couple of good races this season and is running well, and I fancy her for a place this year. Menorahs unbeaten season didn't include beating much, and he got put in his place in the Champion Hurdle last season. I'm not saying he's not a good hurdler, just not as good as those I put forward. I don't think Big Zebs performances so far this season have been particularly impressive, so I think he is definitely there for the beating. Finians Rainbow is something of an opinion call, but I really think he could have the pace to put Sizing Europe to the sword, never mind Big Zeb, this year. I think Barry Geraghty was slightly taken by surprise by Captain Chris in last years Arkle and Captain Chris finished like an absolute train. If you watch the race at Kempton this year again, Finians Rainbow finished exceptionally strongly after a couple of blunders, and I think if you take those out of the equation (which may be optimistic) then I think he has the turn of pace to have the beating of Sizing Europe, who travels well but doesn't quicken phonomenally for me. I wouldn't be putting anyone of 8-1 about Finians Rainbow. In summary I expect this years 4 championship races to all be won by a higher rating than last year, with the possible exception of the Champion Hurdle as despite the fact that the race looks stronger on average, I think Peddlers Cross pushed Hurricane Fly further than any of the others (on current showings at least) can do this year. Finians Rainbow would hassle Sizing Europe more than Big Zeb did last year, and I expect a much better rating from this years Gold Cup. As for the World Hurdle, I'm optimistic than Dynaste will set a strong pace, which will allow Big Bucks to absolutely fly past Oscar Whisky when he takes it up, and therefore set a higher rating than last years World Hurdle due to the stronger pace, despite the fact that I do think that Grands Crus was probably a better challenger (although not by much) than Oscar Whisky will be. Sorted.
Good points danish buty opinion does differ even though I do respect your reasoning. Personally I can't have finians rainbow staying up the hill stronger than than the two I've already put forward and comparing performances from Kempton doesn't work for me as Cheltenham is the polar opposite in terms of traits needed to succeed , this is why I favour long run over kauto despite the jockey , gerarty will ride big zeb as with ruby he has a more leanient retainer contact with Henderson like ruby does with nicolls so he will be on the horse he feels has the best chance of success, hence why bazza is only over in England 2-3 days a week most weeks and tinkler gets a lot of plum rides .
U say menorah didn't beat much laser year and I was never a believer so I'm not pocket talking as I always opposed him in terms of the champ hurdle but he had festival form along with loads of course form beat what was put in front of him in grade 1s and handicap company and up to the day I think was favourite and well fancied , think he did more than the horses you have mentioned to justicify his place , one hasn't run yet , and of the others I feel have had workmanlike wins compared to what the champion is capable of . Plus uve mentioned quite a few 5 yos and I personally haven't seen that much from them to suggest that their capable of beating the fly if fully fit.
I can't be having Finians Rainbow for the Champion Chase. Dawdles along in front, Bit of a loose cannon over his fences for Me and to be honest I don't think hes quick enough to win a Champion Chase. Didn't get up the hill in the Arkle and certainly won't be troubling Sizing Europe at Cheltenham. He was electric in the Tingle Creek and looks in top form...
I agree entirely about the tracks - but whilst I don't think it's true to say that, say one horse beating another at Kempton means they won't reverse form at Cheltenham, all I'm referring to from that race was Finians electric finish, which for me, showed a lot of promise, despite a scrappy rest of the race. On the 27th of December both Big Zeb and Finians Rainbow ran and BG rode Finians - not sure whether this was an indication of his retainer or his preference, but in either of those cases I would expect the same result in the CC. I kinda think that the same can be said for Zarkandar, Binocular and Spirit Son (ok, maybe not 'loads' of course form in SS's case), and Grandouet and Unaccompanied have come out very strongly this season... I've mentionned several younger horses, Unaccompanied Grandouet and Zarkandar, and I've not seen much from them either but think what I have seen has been impressive - I'm not one for statistics of the 'this year olds don't win this race' etc type, so I don't feel concerned particularly by their ages. I would like to re-iterate that I do think that a fit Hurricane Fly would batter the lot of them. But I Do think that they mean that the horses in say, 3rd-6th in the Champion Hurdle will be of a better average quality than they were last year.
