Apologies if my questions sounded facetious, my comments weren't meant to sound perhaps the way they read. I don't however believe I am misquoting you - I can't be bothered to trawl through the thread but you definitely said his performance enhanced his Arkle claims and he would shorten as a result, and you also offered caution to ante post players because his debut was so impressive connections may take him down the Champion Chase route. If your views have changed it's no issue, we're all entitled to....
Zenyatta......Exactly he has won 2 standard novice chases at Bangor beating very little, in comparison Al Ferof has won a G2 and then a G1 at Cheltenham and**Sandown respectively. So how on earth can the handicapper rate Peddlers Cross as superior is beyond me. The only horse you can use to try and boost Peddlers Cross's form is Minella Class who fell next time, how amusing. *Minella Class's lowest in running price on Betfair was 5.9, so clearly very few others thought he was travelling 'Ominously' or 'the best of the lot' before he fell.* We all know Peddlers Cross's rating is absolute nonsense, the handicapper has just got carried away because of his hurdling rating. Can you honestly tell me, had any other horse beaten Minella Class(on his debut) by 8 lenghs, that they would have been given ratings of 159 and 160?* The handicapper plain and simply hasn't got a clue *
Grizzly....I am not going to keep going round in circles, my opinion of Peddlars after his debut, was that he jumped very well, and on the proviso he could prove himself against better opposition, then the CC was not out of the question, because of his previous experience in points. *His debut afterall was just a steering job, all it told us is that he could beat some very average horse's without coming off the bridle. From the day I seen Sprinter Sacre's debut, I stated that his performance was the best chasing debut I had ever seen, and that he would defeat anything put infront of him. Hence why I was one of the few members of this site, to predict a comfortable Sprinter Sacre success at Kempton*
It is very easy to see why Peddlers Cross was giving that rating. Minella Class was rated 148 over hurdles. It was his first start but he jumped very well so there is no reason to think that he recorded a figure much below that. Let us say that he ran to 140 which I think is entirely fair (though I am sure you will disagree). Peddlers Cross was giving him 10lbs and won easily by 8 lengths. It is not hard to think he is worthy of a rating 20lbs superior to Minella Class leaving him on a figure of 160. That is a perfectly logical argument and explains exactly why Peddlers Cross is worthy of his 160 rating. I am sure that he is capable of far better given that he was not extended and think that he will at the very least give Sprinter Sacre a very decent race in the Arkle. At the prices I would far rather side with him at 6/1. You appear to be avoiding one question Shergar. Will you be laying the 33/1 that you think he should be? Or else would you like to admit that it was 'utter bollocks'?!
Again Zenyatta you are using hurdling form to back up your argument. The fact is there is no chasing form that backs up Peddlers Cross running to 160, so the handicapper should have been far more cautious before he gave PC a 160 rating. A rating of 150+ would have been about right. For me both of Al Ferof's efforts are superior, both of Cue Cards efforts at Newbury are superior, Zaynars effort at Ascot is superior, and even For Non Stop's 2nd behind Al Ferof is superior. I'd even go as far as to say Walk On's effort at Exeter could be considered superior form. As for Sprinter Sacre, he is a stone and probably more superior to Peddlers Cross
As for wether I would want to lay you 33/1, why would I want to do that when I can lay all those numpty's on Betfair 9s
How has he proved he's not up to Arkle level? None of us really know for sure until we get to the festival. To suggest PC is no better than a 33/1 shot for the race is total bollocks. The Arkle will likely be a small field affair this year and SS looks the most likely winner but I'd be amazed if PC isn't in the first three. At the end of the day its all about opinions and noboby knows for sure.
Captain Chris hardly had the best chase form going into last year's Arkle though did he? He'd been soundly beaten by Ghizao twice, then beaten by Medermit in a close finish and managed to win an unusually weak Pendil prior to heading for the Arkle. What he DID have however, was winning form at Cheltenham (a novice hurdle) and demonstrated form beyond 2 miles (Pendil). By contrast hot favourite Finian's Rainbow had neither - well beaten 5th in his only Cheltenham start (the Neptune) and 17f was the farthest he won at at a high level (his victory over 19f at Ascot in a novice hurdle was bloodless but also pretty meaningless in relation to the Arkle). Same the year before - hot favourite Captain Cee Bee (although obviously having Cheltenham form) had never raced beyond 17f whereas the eventual winner Sizing Europe had won chases at 17, 18 and 20f and had winning form at Cheltenham in the Greatwood as a hurdler.
Since my Arkle preview I have been asked a few times how I could possibly think that Peddlers Cross will be able to reverse his comprehensive defeat at the hands of Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. I was confident that he could in my own mind but the doubts of others prompted me to take a thorough look at the formbook to either confirm that belief or prove myself wrong. I must first apologise for the crude and easily criticised analysis. However, I hope you can appreciate the points that are being made. This is what I found. First up Peddlers Cross. His first performance is worthless as far as a rating goes with a near 5 length beating of a horse rated 120 worth little more than 130 with a big '+'. His second effort offers a greater insight. Minella Class was rated 148 over hurdles. It was his first start over fences but he jumped very well so there is no reason to think that he recorded a figure much below that. Let us say that he ran to 140 which I think is entirely fair. Peddlers Cross was giving him 10lbs and won easily by 8 lengths. It is not hard to think he is worthy of a rating 20lbs superior to Minella Class leaving him on a figure of 160. I would, therefore, be in agreement with the official handicapper here. The easiest way to work out the other form is to use Al Ferof as the benchmark. On his first chase start he beat Astracad by an easy 7 lengths. Astracad has since gone on to win a good handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 138 and is now rated 145. So Al Ferof would be worthy of a rating around 152 for that first performance at Cheltenham for an easy 7 length beating of a 138 rated horse who is now rated 145. There doesn't seem to be any obvious reason why he should have improved hugely between then and Sandown, indeed he might have recorded a lower figure given that the pace and ground did not suit. He had the 137 rated Lancetto back in 3rd beaten 13 lengths. That would leave the 2nd For Non Stop on around 150 (he's actually rated 151 by the official handicapper), and Al Ferof on 1lb more. This would fit in perfectly with the Sandown performance being a touch below his effort at Cheltenham given that conditions were less in his favour. The Cheltenham race was on good ground with a fast pace which suited ideally. Therefore, that leaves Al Ferof on a peak figure of 152. The handicapper has yet to give him a rating so I cannot see how we compare! For Non Stop then went on to finish 2nd at Newbury behind Cue Card. But first I must assess the 3rd that day, Walkon. On his first start at Exeter he had easily beaten the then 142 rated Zaynar by 6 lengths. I should think putting him 8lbs clear would be fair, and would leave him with a figure just 3lb shy of his hurdles mark of 153 on 150. Zaynar then went onto Ascot and showed undoubtedly improved form to beat the 141 rated Frascati Park by 10 lengths. Everything seemed to fall right for him that day and a figure of around 150 appears about right (the handicapper agrees). This once again puts him onto the same mark as he is over hurdles. Notus De La Tour is a little trickier to rate with the only viable handle coming from the 135 rated Lucky William who finished 4th in the Racing Post Novice Chase. He was beaten nearly 7 lengths so that gives Notus De La Tour a figure of around 142. At Exeter he was carrying an 8lb penalty when beaten by Walkon and was nearly 3 lengths behind Zaynar. That would put him on around 140 leaving his weight adjusted figure for that performance at 148. The handicapper has him on 146 and I think it is reasonable to downgrade this form slightly given the subsequent exploits of both Walkon and Notus De La Tour. If I use the handicappers figure of 146 for Notus De La Tour then Walkon drops to 148 and Zaynar to 140 for this effort. I still think his Ascot rating of 150 is fair. We then come to the Cue Card race. Cue Card beat For Non Stop by 4 lengths giving him 7lbs which would suggest a bare rating of 162. My gut feeling is that is on the high side. Walkon was disappointing after two bad mistakes in the home straight. He lost his form a little last season after a promising start so his running to around 140 (8lbs below his first time out figure) seems fair enough, especially given that he was eased when beaten, and it is easy to see why the official handicapper has him on 150, and I think a 2lb drop would be sensible seeing as I have him only on 148 at Exeter. This all falls into place and lends validity to Cue Card's official figure of 155. However, given my misgivings about the rating I think it sensible to looks at some of Cue Card's earlier form. On his first start Cue Card beat the 142 rated Micheal Flips by a comfortable 3 and 1/2 lengths. Let us give that performance a rating in the region of 149 (having him value for double the winning distance). I think it is safe to ignore Silviniaco Conti from this analysis because he was unfit. Cue Card then unseated at Cheltenham before just getting touched off by Bobs Worth, giving him 7lbs. They had the 135 rated Mad Moose 35 lengths back in 3rd but he is not a viable yardstick given that he was not ridden out. So here we must return to hurdles ratings. Bobs Worth was rated 152 and Cue Card 155. I think it is fair to say that neither horse ran to their peak with the trip short of Bobs Worth's best. I feel confident in awarding Cue Card a rating of 149, the same he recorded when winning first time, leaving Bobs Worth on 150. If this in then adjusted for the weights Bobs Worth is left on 143. This looks fair seeing as he was beaten just over 5 lengths by the 159 rated Grands Crus up in trip next time who was eased slightly close home. This would give him a figure of around 150 (handicapper has him on 151), meaning he showed 7lbs improvement for the run and the step up in trip. Cue Card seems to have recorded a new best at Newbury next time when beating For Non Stop and Walkon. The bare form could warrant a big rating (possibly as high as 162 if you believe For Non Stop ran to his official mark of 151) but given the performance and his previous chase form I would be happier with a more conservative appraisal of the form. An improved rating is perfectly plausible given that the trip was more suitable on this occasion. Cue Card's current official mark is 155. If he ran to that level in this then that would push For Non Stop down to a mark of around 145. Given his mistakes a lower figure than his Sandown effort is believable but that does seems a big drop seeing as he looked to appreciate the step up in trip. Walkon was a further 11 lengths behind and I am sure that he was below his Exeter form. His performance here would warrant around 140 which is exactly as I would expect lending a sense of authority to the ratings. I have Minella Class running to a figure of 140 in defeat behind Peddlers Cross but given the way he travelled in this race it is possible he is worthy of more. I suspect this trip was ideal and he might well have gone close. However, he departed too early to be confident about assigning the performance a rating. It is trickier trying to put a figure on Sprinter Sacre. My gut instinct is about 165. In his first start at Doncaster he beat a 135 rated horse that was eased by 24 lengths with ease. Given both horses were eased to a certain extent I think a figure of round about 155 is the right way to go (already a 6lb improvement on his hurdles peak of 149). This would be supported by the Wayward Lad market which made Peddlers Cross a slight favourite as they would have gone into that race with figures of 160 and 155. The Wayward Lad itself is virtually impossible to rate. If you believe Peddlers Cross ran to form (160) then Sprinter Sacre's easy 16 length beating warrants a huge rating. Both were eased near the finish, possibly Peddlers Cross more, but Sprinter Sacre was not extended either. I think it is therefore reasonable to suggest that the 16 length winning margin is a true reflection of Sprinter Sacre's superiority on the day. If Peddlers Cross ran to his mark of 160 then that makes Sprinter Sacre worthy of a figure of around 175. For all his brilliance, I find that very hard to believe. What is more likely (and this is my opinion now) is that Peddlers Cross was roughly 10lbs below form. That would leave him with a figure of 150, and give Sprinter Sacre a figure of 165, incidentally exactly my gut instinct mentioned earlier. This is open to interpretation but I think that is a fair reflection. If we look back at past running of the Arkle a figure of 165 would have been sufficient to win 9 of the last 10 renewals. Recent winners were rated after the race; Captain Chris 160, Sizing Europe 160, Forpadydeplasterer 156, Tidal Bay 166, My Way De Solzen 159, Voy Por Ustedes 162, Contraband 153, Well Chief 146, Azertyuiop 161 and Moscow Flyer 159. Interestingly Peddlers Cross' figure of 160 means he has already recorded a figure good enough to win (or dead heat) 7 of the last 10 too. Just goes to prove that this year's novices are as exceptional as they look. By this analysis I have the list for the Arkle as follows (some are unlikely to run): Sprinter Sacre - 165 Peddlers Cross - 160 Cue Card - 155 Al Ferof - 152 For Non Stop - 151 Zaynar - 150 Walkon - 148 Notus De La Tour - 146
And these ratings are broadly in line with the front four in the betting, so I would say these are perfectly logical. Whether a horse over/under performs at Cheltenham or on certain ground is for deabte which will impact on the price of course...
On a side note and to respond to Oddy's point. Take the last 5 winners . . . Captain Chris 160 - Winner over 2m5f over fences. Sizing Europe 160 - Winner over 2m4f on heavy ground over fences. Forpadydeplasterer 156 - Only chase win was over 2m on heavy ground but had finished 2nd in two Grade 1s over 2m4f and 2m5f. Tidal Bay 166 - Grade 2 hurdle winner over 2m4f. Chase winner over 2m4f (twice) and 2m5f. Only chase defeat before the Arkle came over 2m1f at Doncaster. My Way De Solzen 159 - World Hurdle winner and chase winner over 2m4f and 2m5f on heavy ground.
Usually takes a horse who can stay further than 2 miles to win an Arkle or Queen Mother, Im not saying Sprinter Sacre can't but he certainly didn't stay in the Supreme last year he bottomed out completely coming up the hill when he looked to have the race at his mercy. We know Peddlers acts around Cheltenham and we know he will battle to the line as he as proved twice before at the Festival... Will Sprinter Sacre have the guts to get up the hill when horses with proven stamina give it to him at the business end, Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof, Cue Card? Im not so sure to be honest. Sprinter Sacre beat absolutely nothing around Doncaster, And I find it very hard to believe that Peddlers Cross was that bad at Kempton. I'd certainly give him another chance against Sprinter Sacre and at 6/1 I think hes a brilliant bit of value! I think you'd be a brave man to totally disregard Peddlers Cross and to label him a 33/1 shot is abolutely unbelievable, You've been outlandish before Shergar and had egg allover your face at the end of it, I hope for your sake this isn't one of them... I remember when you said that Hurricane Fly '' Was a big fish in a small pond over in Ireland and will be exposed once he faces some real competetion '' Yet in his next start he won the Champion Hurdle!
Sorry to keep banging on but Grizzly's post has given me another idea which pretty much explains my standing on the race entirely. If I then factor in my own opinion about suitability to the race then I would come up with something like this: Sprinter Sacre - 165 (-5lbs for question marks about the hill) - 160 Peddlers Cross - 160 (+5lbs for improvement for the track) - 165 Al Ferof - 154 (+5lbs for improvement for the track) - 159 Cue Card - 153 (-5lbs for finding zilch off the bridle) - 149 For Non Stop - 151 (Stay the same I think but doubtful runner) - 151 That leaves me pretty much exactly as I see it. I should say that I expect the ratings could even be a bit higher than that. Really exceptional crop with three horses who would walk most renewals of the race. Edit: Menorah is the one not included. I might try and see if I can put a figure on him but it might be impossible.
At bigger prices I also like the Irish trio of Bog Warrior (although trip probably too sharp - will he go to the Jewson?), Flemenstar (impressive t'other day) and Solwhit (when ARE we going to see him again?)
Zenyatta, I'm with Shergar re. Peddler's Cross. As I see it, the handicapper is too keen to overrate performances- and equally keen not to downrate them when proven falsely high. As it stands, Peddler's Cross has only won one Class 3 Chase and one Class 4 Chase. In my opinion, that did not merit a 160 rating. If you take two past Arkle winners with similar ratings, say Sizing Europe and Moscow Flyer, the former had won Grade One, Two, and Three chases prior to the Arkle; and M.Flyer had won Grade One and Grade Three. Your previous argument re. Minella Class is dubious at best. By analogy, I could maintain that Sprinter Sacre is worth a 176 rating, having beaten Peddler's Cross by 16 lengths. Yes, the latter was eased down but the winner had tons left in the tank. For me cross references are dubious at best; likewise previous assertions by one or two members that Peddler's Cross was a certainty for the Arkle- even before he had jumped a fence! According to your ratings and past Arkle results, Sprinter Sacre or Peddler's Cross should win the Arkle. We''ll see. Personally - and despite his pedigree saying otherwise- I feel Cue Card is best at two miles and has as good a chance as anything. He appeals more to me than Peddler's Cross.
Interesting points re the handicapper, my feeling is that he can't ignore hurdling form when assessing novice chase form. Shergs/Tam could be right in that his chase rating is too high on what he's achieved, but when you have a horse who is a previous Neptune winner and a horse that ran Hurricane Fly to a length in the Champion Hurdle his effortless chase debut was always going to be overated for me. People are questioning him now because of his Kempton performance, maybe the flat tracks that don't test his stamina do not play to his strengths, he underperformed at Aintree at the end of last season as well. His next race is crucial, if as McCain has said he was off colour at Kempton, he will need to put in an impressive performance to regain some of the confidence lost after that underpar performance....
