2.25 Wolves Just Timmy Marcus 25/1 He's either going to run an absolute shocker or go extremely close on the back of a 285 day break but I think if fully wound up then this relatively unexposed 6 year old has a lot of positives in his favour today. Although winless since his first 2 starts in 2009, JTM has dropped to his lowest mark for a long time now racing off 56 with his win in handicap company coming off a mark of 63. He's also put in a lot of very credible efforts in defeat at the track, perhaps most impressively finishing a head 2nd in a Class 5 Handicap over C+D off 64 in December 2010. Although Brian Baugh is winless since September, his horses aren't in the worst form and I certainly think recent efforts by some of his horses like John Potts are indications that a winner will not be far away. James Rogers takes the ride and a valuable 3lb off his back in this apprentice contest and he is one of the best riders in the race in my opinion. Rogers and Baugh have a very good strike rate when teaming up with a 31% strike rate, which improves to 40% when looking solely at the AW and this represents the young jockeys only ride of the day. I'm only playing small stakes but with
2.10 Taunton - RANGITOTO 9/4 (BOG) A very good Limited Handicap Chase here for which the Nicky Henderson trained Master Fiddle is currently the 11/8 favourite, he is a lightly raced 7yo but based on his bare form I couldn't have him at the prices. He was a fair hurdler who was open to further improvement but some of his form is moderate at best including his final start over hurdles when 3rd at Ayr beaten 21 lengths with the following comments from the ATR site (held up mid-division, went poor 4th after 4 out, went 3rd after last, no impression). After this effort he was finished for the season but returned after a 225 day absence to make his chasing debut at Newbury, he did travel well that day before unseating but his jumping didn't look that clever throughout the race. I think this is a better race than he contested that day and although he has been well backed again I have to be against him. I will be having a punt on Rangitoto who looks to be improving with each run and has a lovely profile. After a good win at Cheltenham from a mark of 119 he was sent chasing at Wincanton on boxing day and looked a lovely recruit to the chasing ranks, jumping fluently and quickening away in good style. This is more competitive but with Ruby Walsh back on and the step up in trip likely to suit he looks the one they all have to beat here. 3.10 Taunton TIGRE D'ARON 6/1 (BOG) I am surprised to see 6/1 available for Tigre D'aron this afternoon as when I looked at this race last night he was showing as the 7/2 favourite. I was a little bit disappointed with this one last time out on his debut for Paul Nicholls as his new trainer seemed to think a mark of 120 was certainly workable so the fact he could only finish 14th of 23 was a little bit frustrating for those that had backed him. However that was his first outing for 246 days and it may well be that he just needed the outing. He also shaped as if this step up to 3m would certainly suit and with Ruby Walsh taking the ride this afternoon he is certainly worth another chance in my opinion at the prices
Worth pointing out that Rangitoto beat Webberys Dream last time out and that one hosed up at Wincanton the other day as the outsider of 4
Not travelling but still think he'd have won. Looks a proper stayer. Henderson yoke ran no sort of race at all.
Rangitoto never travels when in decent races- was off the bridle a long way from home at Cheltenham but finds plenty. Ruby was never serious on him either just niggling then he was going back on the bridle. His jumping was piss poor today though all the way until he unseated. The Henderson horse was a false fav for sure its form is poor
Farce of a race, no idea why Barry G didn't have his big steed out front from the off. Nothing jumped particularly well, and it seemed like they were running in slo mo !
Looked a decent race on paper and it might be that none are very good. I've still got Vino Griego marked down for a 2m5f handicap on good ground. Might be one to watch at the Festival at a big price.
Zen, toteplace at the festival. He doesn't seem to want to win. Either weakens late or runs on too late
RV, done a bit EW on GB too. Hobbs likes him from reports and surely they will have him spot on after that ligament issue
The placepot at Taunton is gonna be massive Cancel all bets today would be my advice - it's one of those days
Zen i dont use betfair, do you have to have the money in your account before you can match the bet ??
