Evening lads. This is from my blog so please ignore any points and crap . Away to the match tomorrow so putting bets up early. 2.10 Sandown 2pts win RILEYEV (9/2 BOG) & 1pt win HOLD FAST (5/1 BOG) I am going to take a chance in this race not only by backing two but leaving out the classy Tanks For That who could well be capable of running a massive race despite carrying top weight here. However he does have to prove his well being after a fall at Cheltenham last time out (usually a sound jumper). His stablemate Dave’s Dream certainly isn’t out of this and it took a good while before I finally decided to pass him over. All For Free is an improver but this is a step up in class and he needs to find more from his new mark. Darcey’s Dream is nicely weighted on the pick of his form but his jumping often lets him down and I have to be against him for this reason tomorrow. I have King Edmund held at the weights and I think that Pret a Thou needs to up his game. I do like Nomecheki but he isn’t reliable so he is easy enough to ignore. The two I am going to concentrate on are Rileyev and Hold Fast with reasons below. RILEYEV This one is certainly on the upgrade with every race he is getting better, let’s remember this is a horse that was beaten fair and square off a mark of 89 less than a year ago at Hereford. Since then though he has done nothing but improve and with Venetia Williams in fair form at the moment I don’t see a 5lbs rise for a magnificent runners up performance at Cheltenham stopping him from running another huge race. Back In November at Cheltenham he was beaten 14 lengths by Tanks For That who was giving him 18lbs, the same horse is 1lbs better off with the selection at the weights tomorrow but through a line with the 3rd that day (Haventgotascoobydo) I get the feeling that the selection has improved around a stone as he reversed form with that rival 14 ¼ lengths (same weights finished 3 ¼ lengths in front) when they met last month. On a line through that rival there should be nothing between the top weight and Rileyev tomorrow but Venetia William’s runner has the advantage of being proven in similar conditions whilst Tanks For That’s best form is all on a sounder surface HOLD FAST This is an unexposed chaser making his second start for Paul Nicholls tomorrow off a decent looking mark of 137. He showed plenty for previous trainer Howard Johnson winning a maiden hurdle a novice hurdle and a novice chase. There was plenty to like about the way this one shaped on his debut for Paul Nicholls in a handicap chase at Newbury back in November. He was returning following a 232 day absence in a race eventually won by my other selection Rileyev. He was beaten 7 lengths in to 4th that day but has a massive swing at the weights (15lbs better off). That added to the fact he should be fitter tomorrow should be good enough for him to go very close, although Rileyev probably improved again when 2nd next time out I will be disappointed if this one isn’t a lot closer tomorrow and considering I fancy Rileyev to be bang there at the finish I have had a saver on this horse at 5s. 2.35 Sandown – 3pts win PROSPECT WELLS (7/4 SKYBET) Straight to the point with this one, I have this down as a comfortable victory for Prospect Wells over three rivals but I am totally unsure about Captain Conan, however as this is his first start for Nicky Henderson and he is likely to improve I am still going to place my bet. I am not being disrespectful to the rest of the field at all but I think Prospect Wells experience in better races is going to be crucial tomorrow. He has looked very good over hurdles so far starting with a routine victory in a novice hurdle at Chepstow (11/4 SP WOW). He bettered that form when runner up to Steps To Freedom at Cheltenham before going on to comfortably beat a decent rival called All The Aces at Newbury (went on to defeat the Champion Bumper 2nd next time out). The selections latest outing came in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot in which he finished a very good 4th on soft ground. He didn’t have the clearest of runs but still ran on well once in the clear after the last. Back in novice company tomorrow I feel he should get back to winning ways. Colour Squadron is potentially exciting but will have to better the bare form of his win over Montbazon last time out to win this. Magnifique Etoile is certainly worth a mention as he was a very good bumper performer and has made an effortless switch to hurdles winning his first 3 starts. It would be fair to say they have been against inferior rivals but he is well worth his place in what looks a decent renewal
I too fancy Rileyev RV- I think he will be my nap tomorrow. Venetia Williams horses have not been running great of lately bu she had a good winner last week in Houblon Des Obeaux and a good 2nd in Mon Mome so hopefully they are just starting to fire! and rileyev will confirm that tomorrow!!
Hi both late owls I have backed Rileyev the last three runs, but am deserting him tomorrow in favour of Tanks For That. On the line through Havingot, I make Tanks the clear winner, regardless of the surface. I will be far from disappointed however if it goes the other way
I am afraid you may do Reebok- I was looking at tanksforthat but he runs best when fresh!- hes carrying top weight at 11st 12. Too much against him Where as Rileyev is carying 10st9 a mahoosive difference! But good luck anyway!
2.35 Sandown: CAPTAIN CONAN 9/2 A horse who is pretty well regarded at home, and very impressive winning a nice event at Auteil in the summer. I have backed him quite well for the Supreme Novices at 30s and 38s in anticipation of a nice run here that might put him in the picture for the Supreme. He has it all to do, as Prospect Wells went very close against one of my early Supreme fancies in Steps To Freedom, and sets a very high standard. This is his first run, and as RV says above, the logical pick here has to be Prospect Wells as you would think Captain Conan would come on for the run. However to start him in a Grade One suggests he is held in very good regard and I am hopeful he will give Nicky Henderson another serious contender alongside the pretty impressive Simonsig. Prospect Wells is good, but I have to say he will be stronger at Cheltenham on better ground IMO.
Won't be punting tomorrow...racing has a chrimbo hangover look to it and I'll be on the old links anyhow. Best race of the weekend for me is the novice chase in Ireland on Sunday featuring Lambro and the enormous Flemenstar.Both have G2 hurdle form tied in with my early season top novice tip Last Instalment.Lambro holds Flemenstar on that form but this is a fascinating contest with the latter likely to close the gap. Amazing the only 2m novice chase rhetoric on here has involved Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof. As stated in November,I can't have either of these for anything festival related at HQ. GL with all bets guys.
I'll be having a bet on either Rileyev or Tanks For That in the 2.05 Sandown but haven't decided which one yet. Can't wait for the Colour Squadron/Prospect Wells encounter having backed both on every NH start to date. Don't even want to bother trying to split them so I'll gladly sit back and see how the race pans out and I'll be quite surprised if they aren't the first 2 home. 3.45 Sandown Havingotascoobydo 6/1 Martin Keighley's 7 year old looks potentially very well handicapped on the basis of his chasing form as he returns to the smaller hurdles after a pretty decent start to his chasing career. On his last start Havingotascoobydo was sent off favourite in a Grade 3 although he fell at the 3rd fence. Before that he was a wide margin winner of Novices Chase although that was a 3 runner race against poor rivals. After this, Havingotascoobydo put in a very good effort in a Handicap Chase when finishing 3L back in 2nd off a mark of 130. The form of that race looks good with the 3rd winning impressively off the same mark and the 6th has won off a 1lb lower mark and finished a head 2nd off a 5lb higher mark. After this Havingotascoobydo put in another solid 3rd off a mark of 135 and over the larger obstacles that mark certainly didn't look past him. He races off 132 tomorrow and based on his improving profile and effort over fences he could very well be nicely handicapped. He has never run in a rules race on ground worse than good to soft and encounters soft tomorrow but he was an impressive winner on heavy ground in a Point to Point so I am not overly concerned about the ground. 6/1 looks a very nice price in a race that looks likely to try and rebuild his confidence after a couple of falls since he began chasing ‎2.45 Lingfield Capone 9/2 This looks a very nice price on debut for rookie trainer Scott Dixon who has made an excellent start to his career with 4 winners from his first 11 runners. Capone comes here from Dandy Nicholls and is bang in form after winning over C+D LTO in late November. He was the only one of the first 6 home that day so I think its fair to slightly upgrade that performance. Hayley Turner has her first ride for Dixon and has a very good record on Capone with 3 wins and 3 places so it looks significant that a familiar jockey is booked for tomorrow. Capone finished 0.5L behind tomorrows favourite Oasis Dancer 2 starts back and with the 2lb swing and the immediate improvement Dixon seems to get from his horses that I think it may be enough to overturn that deficit, although both horses look clearly on the upgrade. Just as with Thunderstruck, Dixon makes nearly a 7 hour round trip for only one runner so it seems that the trainer is going there with a horse that he clearly thinks has a great chance of winning, and I agree. At a larger price in the same race is Linda Stubbs Five Star Junior 20/1 who looks on a good mark to me and looks vastly overpriced. Although he finished 3.69L behind Capone LTO, he gets a 6lb swing at the weights and it certainly isn't feasible that he could overturn that deficit as horses from off the pace didn't really get into the race (although Capone was an exception to this rule). Five Star Junior put in an excellent effort 2 starts back at Dundalk over 6f back in October off a 2lb higher mark when finishing 0.31L behind Bajan Tryst. He has to overcome a disappointing effort LTO but he's won 3 times over C+D so clearly goes well at the track and has a good draw in stall 2. James Sullivan takes the ride tomorrow and it represents his only ride of the day (although that was the case LTO) and I certainly think at 20/1 he certainly looks worthy of a saver. I hope theres a bit of a drift tomorrow as connections don't appear to be gamblers and I will not be the slightest bit concerned if it occurs. 20/1 is well overpriced as is and I certainly think he warrants a small saver.
mORNING ALL Following ROTO with Capone, think this Dico lad may turn out to be something special and as roto says he is picking up these dandy horses nice (still cant thank you enough for thunderstuck) im also following glee blindly at newcastle, he wil be trying to get a place in every race today (as they all should) but he has a great chance of that today
Four for me today - 1.10 Claretintheblood 1.45 Speak The Truth 2.15 Loyal Royal 2.45 Five Star Junior All EW and all noted on the blog - http://nassauboard.blogspot.com/
Morning all! Hope everyone is well? Placepots as per usual for me... Sandown: Leg 1: Kaffie (2) Leg 2: Colebrooke (1) / Fire Fighter (4) Leg 3: King Edmund (3) / Rileyev (7) Leg 4: Colour Squadron (2) Leg 5: Neptune Collonges (1) / Exmoor Ranger (4) Leg 6: Attaglance (6) / Lucaindubai (10) / Cotillion (11) 24 @ 65p £15.60 Wincanton: Leg 1: Harry Topper (1) Leg 2: Argaum (3) / Wine 'n' Dine (6) Leg 3: Iona Days (1) / El Diego (5) Leg 4: Pasco (1) / Rougham (3) Leg 5: So Fine (2) / Chain Of Command (5) / Arctic Wings (10) Leg 6: Doeslessthanme (1) / Roalco De Farges (2) 48 @ 30p £14.40 Singles Bets: KING EDMUND 2.05 SANDOWN (NAP) He saw his rivals off in determined fashion at Ascot last time out. He may be able to get a soft lead again today, and hopefully he can follow up once again providing his jumping is better. 13/2 Various
Mighty Magnus @ 5/2 (GP) Madame Blavatsky @ 13/8 (GP) Glenwood Knight @ 7/1 (GP) Sparkling Hand @ 25/1 (GP) ew accumulator & EW L15 (Small stakes ) FA CUP BET Accumulator (11) To Win Sunderland @ evens Celtic @ 1/14 Tottenham @ 1/7 Norwich @ 5/6 Newcastle @ 4/6 Middlesbrough @ 1/2 QPR @ 6/4 Blackpool @ 5/6 Fulham @ 4/9 Everton @ 1/8 Swansea @ 11/8 IF this comes in no more on call for me !!!!!!!!!!!!! off to Whitby with the Kids for Fish & Chips Stay Frosty
Reebok nice one Just a quick question how do you have Tanksforthat coming out well on top through a form line of Haven'tgotascoobydo ? I spent a while looking at the form and weights and seen a couple of runs after Rileyev was held by Tanksforthat and Haventgotascooby do he reversed form of 11 lengths plus a further 3+ lengths in front of Haventgotascoodydo off the same weights suggesting he had improved around a stone. Only 1lb worse off with Tanksforthat for a 14 length defeat it should be close between the two on figures alone ? with Tanksforthat just about coming out on top. However the ground will favour RILEYEV. And Hold Fast could be the best handicapped horse in the race Wish it was that easy best of luck with Tanksforthat he is fantastic jumper (silly thing to say after a fall lto but was unlucky)
Going for an e/w Lucky 15 today to small stakes. 3.10 Sandown Neptune Collonges - showed he remains a force to be reckoned with in these types of races with a fine 4th at Ascot last time out off a mark of 161. He goes off 159 today and has Ruby Walsh back on board forthe first time in nearly 3 years and it should be remembered that it was Ruby who steered him to his 3 Grade 1 wins. I have this between the top 2 but I do think Master Of The Hall needs a real slog on very soft ground to show his best and I think Neptune Collonges can get back to winning ways 3.45 Sandown Afsoun - the old boy showed he still had a liking for the game when scoring very easily at Newcastle off a mark of 130. He is raised 6lbs for that which doesn't look too harsh and hopefully they will elect to make plenty of use of him as he won well from the front last time and I've always thought he likes to race with plenty of daylight. 2.50 Wincanton Consigliere - starting to drop down the weights and put in a decent effort last time behind Quincy des Pictons who looks a real blot on the handicap. If you took the winner out of that race Consigliere would have been a fine 3L 2nd to Chance du Roy, which is a massive step up on his previous effort against that horse (beaten 40+ lengths). I think he is weighted to go very close here and has conditions to suit. The only thing you worry about with the Pipe stable of course is, are they trying to get his mark down for the festival but, with a decent pot on offer today, I'm prepared to think they have aimed him at this. 3.25 Wincanton Numide - with hindsight he did himself no favours winning the Greatwood in 2008 as he was handicapped to the hilt for many races after that. His last win came in a class 3 handicap hurdle at Bangor over 2m4f off a rating of 125 and he is back down to that mark today with Farrelly back on board. Best of luck everyone
From Sporting Life: "Liverpool and the police are investigating an incident which took place during the 5-1 FA Cup third-round win over Oldham at Anfield, where visiting defender Tom Adeyemi was seemingly the target of abuse from fans." Well that's never ****ing happened before has it? Visiting player abused by fans? Ah but, I hear you say, he's coloured. And it's Liverpool.
Odddy rumours are that the lad was left in tears after being racially abused ? shocking if true but wouldn't surprised me if it was false
