The Champion Hurdle - Tuesday 13th March

Exactly Topclass, I don't think I've ever seen the form of the Supreme look so strong, even if alot of the form since hasn't been over hurdles it still proves, that the likes of Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and even Cue Card are top class animals.

I could see Spirit Son doing a Job on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion, whilst Hurricane Fly is very good, I have a feeling Spirit Son could be alot better than Solwhit, Peddlars Cross, and the rest of the horse's he faced last year

 

Oddy....Believe you me if NH rates Spirit Son as highly as reports are suggesting, then he will have no worries sending Spirit Son to Ireland. Hurricane Fly is a very good horse, but Henderson has trained better, for instance See You Then would have had HF for breakfast

 

Spirit Son will never in a million years go to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion. There is no way Henderson will want him to get stuffed on his first run back. He'll leave it until Cheltenham.

Agree with Oddy that the Sandown race (Contenders Hurdle I think) would be the most likely option. I think he has Grandouet pencilled in for the Kingwell.

Shergs, I'm not suggesting Spirit Son needs soft, not at all, just that it might bring his stamina into play. I'm not sure whether I believe it myself, but his profile is that of a horse who wants further; two novice wins on soft and heavy, an outpaced and staying on second in the Supreme, and an impressive win over 2m4f at Aintree.

 

First of all Zenyatta, there is no guarantee Spirit Son would get stuffed by Hurricane Fly, as I have already pointed out Henderson has had better hurdlers than HF, and if he sends Spirit Son to take him on, then he will go there with a big chance. Spirit Son won his last race by 13 lenghs, I don't ever recall HF winning a race so convincingly, and if Spirit Son is in that form, then Hurricane Fly will be in for the toughest test of his career.

If NH decides on an easier prep race, it will only be because SS isn't in good enough condition to do himself justice, having been off the track since Aintree, not because he is running scared of HF. End of the day he has to take him on at some point. If they were to go for the Sandown race, then surely he would clash with Binocular, who usually warms up in that.

Epona.....Just watched the link you posted on the 2010 Triumph Hurdle, I don't think there has ever been a better race at the festival in recent memory. Barizan has never been the same since, which is no suprise the way he ran himself into the ground, it was a tremendous effort, just ashame he didnt hang on

 

The Aintree race was over 2m4f and I really don't think that he has any form to compare to The Hurricane (and neither does anything else). If you have ever seen a horse win a top class race easier than The Hurricane at Punchestown then let me know.

And, regardless of whether you think Spirit Son would beat Hurricane Fly or not, Henderson still won't take him to Ireland for his prep. He has stated that Binocular will not run at Sandown again, which means he would go to Ireland and Spirit Son to Sandown.

I thought the 2010 Triumph was awful. Over hurdles the winner's form is 650. The second Barizan's form over hurdles is 213736576. Hardly the best Festival race in recent memory. It would be nearer the bottom of the pile as far as I'm concerned. Barizan might have been brave in defeat but I am not sure that is enough to elevate it to such lofty status. Each to their own I suppose.

 

I've read with interest members' comments on Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar, Spirit Son, Etc.
I have some definite views on the Champion Hurdle generally- and on this years protagonists.
Here goes:

1. The standard and strength in depth of hurdlers in the last ten years is by far the worst in my lifetime.
Good Flat horses no longer progress to hurdles and Bumper horses have overall been a dismal failure- I cannot remember a single Cheltenham Bumper winner which has been placed in the Champion Hurdle. Trainers tend to rely on French imports- with some success.

2. Triumph Hurdle winners ( and 5 year olds) have an awful record in the Champion. Excepting Katchit, See You Then, and Persian War, I'm hard pushed to remember any other that won the race in the last 40 years. Kirriemuir won it a bit before that, but he had been an exceptional novice.

3. In last year's Triumph, Zarkandar was, for me, a decisive winner. He made his move like a knife through butter and was the only horse which was not 'all out' on the run to the last.
As I remember, there were many horses in contention approaching the last, but that can be a bad thing as well as a seemingly good pointer, when the good horses have run so well this season ie. are they merely enhancing their own level which may be relatively poor- as happened with Menorah last year.

4.Since going over to Willie Mullins, Hurricane Fly has only lost one race, but there again he has only had 10 races in over three years. Prior to last year's Champion he had mostly been beating Solwhit & Co. but he silenced critics by winning at Cheltenham and being even better on a flatter Punchestown track.
Personally I don't think he beat a great field last March but, if he turns up in top form, a price on the day of around 6/4 - 2/1 should be taken.

5.Spirit Son. Like Zarkandar and the general trend, you need to guess whether he's a model or racehorse! Nicky Henderson Has to send Oscar Whisky elsewhere because he knows he cannot defeat Hurricane Fly, but that does not presuppose that Spirit Son is better. It may just mean that Oscar Whisky is the 'stayer' and therefore he's obliged to tackle Big Bucks with him (God help him).

Summary. Hurricane Fly for me, but I'm interested in seeing Zarkandar's comeback.
If the going were to ease at the Festival, Big Bucks would go for the Champion if I owned him- and try and run them into the ground. This great stayer has gone on improving and developed real tactical speed. Yet this will not happen!

 

Evening Tam. Good to see you back.

 

Evening, Ron. I've had a good day today- probably due to my young grand-daughters- they change everything when you see them, don't they?

 

Haven't got any yet Tam. 2 grandsons and one unknown on the way. Trouble is, my 6yo grandson keeps thrashing me at darts on the X Box. He keeps scoring 180s and 140s. Then when I think I have a chance to get 3 shots at a double, the little bugger gets treble 19, 20, double 16. Just can't beat him.

 

Zenyatta....He may not have yet, but I've got a feeling the form of that Aintree race will turnout very strong. Cue Card and Rock on Ruby have given the form a boost this season already. I know it was over 2m4, but like has been said, CH winners, tend to need to stay abit further.

I know the 2010 Triumph wasnt a vintage renewal form wise, but it was an amazing race to watch on a packed Gold Cup day, it to me is the most exciting race I can remember

 

Tam....Having had a maximum bet on BB to go unbeaten all season I would be horrified to see him run in the CH. Not saying he couldn't do it, but it would be a big risk.

The other 5yo to win it was Night Nurse, so apart from Katchit, your looking at very very good CHs that have won it at 5. As See You Then, Night Nurse and Persian War all won it again at 6

 

Trust me, BB runs the same 4 races as last year...

 

Well apparently he is running in the Cleeve aswell, as now he's 9, they don't think they can get him fit without a run before Cheltenham

 

I think Nicky Henderson really rates Spirit Son. I think Emma Spencer grabbed both he and David Pipe and asked them who they had high hopes for and whilst they both went with the classic Long Run & Grands Crus asnwers, when pushed NH said he hoped Spirit Son might be able to turn into a top, top hurdler.

You can't crab his form last year, even in defeat you have to give Ruby Walsh maximum credit for the well timed run on Al Ferof, who absolutely will stay 3m one day, and Spirit Son picked up Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card really well.


Aintree might exaggerate his form in terms of winning margins, but at the same time I think it is fair to say he is genuinely a better horse than Cue Card and Rock On Ruby, especially at that time. Binoculars narrow (and somewhat fortunate) victory over ROR tells me that both are some way short of the form required to get anywhere near Hurricane Fly, and it would undoubtedly be Spirit Son and Zarkandar who will be the main rivals.


Some of you may poiunt to Grandouet, and whilst I really do think he is a terrific young horse, I think NH knows which one of his yard stands out best- Spirit Son.


Zarkandar will start to unravel the puzzle when he returns, as he is the proper unknown (hard to rate Triumph form and also he wasn't 100% last season), so he could be anything or he could fall way short.

 

Zarkandar is still very much up in the air. Here is what Nicholls had to stay on January 2nd - http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...ndars-options-open-for-his-return-301211.html

"We have no definite plan with Zarkandar at the moment but several options, with maybe the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, the Kingwell at Wincanton, or Haydock possible first ports of call before Cheltenham."

 

I have a Big Bucks/Quevega/Long Run treble (at a decent stake for me) which would rather she didn't, because I think you might be right there...