Back to [h=2] Cheltenham Festival Previews - Index[/h] As news emerges of a pleasing racecourse gallop for Hurricane Fly the time seems right to launch the third antepost preview of the major action at the Cheltenham Festival. Three of the first four in the betting have yet to show their faces this campaign. Two definitely by design, but the reigning Champion Hurricane Fly has missed a couple of engagements with trainer Willie Mullins reportedly not happy with his charge. Those that have appeared have yet to deliver anything that suggests the Hurricane's crown is in danger come March, so long as he is able to defend it. That must be a small worry but I get the impression that this season is all about Cheltenham. Last season they did not know how good he could be so were happy mopping up the Irish Grade 1s. Now he has shown what a brilliant horse he is, and with the Champion Hurdle looking at his mercy, Mullins will be doing everything he can to get him there on the day that matters most. Nothing else matters, it is all about Cheltenham. The main challenge looks to come from those that we have yet to see. Hurricane Fly (5/2) - A brilliant winner of this race last year when he quashed the notion that the hill would hold any fears for him with authority. After a spate of average looking Champion Hurdlers he finally looked a horse worthy of the illustrious crown. He went on to destroy the opposition at Punchestown and, given his versatility in pretty much every regard, it is very hard to see him getting beaten if he turns up in good order in March. He seems happy on good or bottomless ground or anything in between, off a fast pace or a slow pace, he jumps well, has more pace than any of his rivals and stays very well. In short he looks the complete package. The one minor concern is that he could get lit up by the preliminaries. He coped well last year and the way he was so keen through his race suggests there might be more to come. The one major concern is whether he will be able to line-up, especially considering he has missed two of the last three Festivals. If he does I find it hard to see him being defeated, unless one of Spirit Son or Zarkandar can do something exceptional. Everything we have seen so far look a level below what the Hurricane is capable of. Grandouet (6/1) - A very smart juvenile last year and has really progressed pleasingly this year, the highlight being a taking win in the International Hurdle. That day he had Overturn and Brampour in 2nd and 3rd and despite the fact that he won easily he was hardly flying away from them up the hill. I think both of those rivals are short of the top level (and he was receiving weight from Overturn) so would liked to have seen him dismiss them more readily. He is well worthy of his place in the field for certain but he makes no appeal whatsoever at 6/1. Spirit Son (8/1) - Only 2nd in the Supreme but absolutely demolished a good field at Aintree the last time we saw him. Barry Geraghty reported that Cheltenham just came a year too soon for him and he is expected to be a different proposition this term. He has yet to make his seasonal reappearance but that is slightly by design, though there were reports of a minor hold-up earlier in the season. He will need to progress but that looks likely, and the rumours suggest that he is the best of Nicky Henderson's trio (Grandouet and Binocular being the other two). That alone means he warrants great respect. Is he worth backing now? Possibly. The 10/1 looks vulnerable and he is unlikely to face much opposition when he does see a racecourse. I would expect him to win impressively and then he could easily be a 5/1 chance. My inclination would be to refrain at least until where he will be reappearing and what he will be facing. In my opinion he looks one of the more likely challengers to the reigning Champion. Zarkandar (8/1) - Almost exactly the same comments apply to Zarkandar as to Spirit Son. The Triumph that he won looks exceptionally strong form with the 2nd that day Unaccompanied winning the Grade 1 Istabraq Hurdle this week, the 3rd Grandouet winning the International, the 9th Brampour winning two good handicaps (including the Greatwood) and running well in 3rd in the International and the 14th Molotof looking a really smart novice hurdler. The form could hardly be working out any better and if Zarkandar can find the same improvement as the horses that he beat, and there is no reason to think he cannot, then he will be a force to be reckoned with. The exploits of stablemates Rock On Ruby and Brampour have further strengthened his claims with Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls adamant that he is his best ever chance of winning that elusive Champion Hurdle. The other factor to consider is he has had the benefit of a breathing operation which should enable him to find yet more improvement. I backed him for the Triumph and would be disappointed if he were not in the shake-up come March. As for backing him, the same comments apply as for Spirit Son. Binocular (12/1) - Hailed as a brilliant Champion back in 2008 but in hindsight the form looks very poor indeed with Khyber Kim in 2nd and Zaynar and Celestial Halo filling 3rd and 4th. He did win it well but has done little since to suggest that he is capable of mixing it with the very best around, being comprehensively thumped by Hurricane Fly at the Punchestown Festival. The strong pace and the hill play to his strengths but he is far too inconsistent to recommend at this stage. He has his fans but I am not one of them. He is nearly always deeply unimpressive in his prep races so there appears no reason to back him now. Rock On Ruby (12/1) - Never considered as a Champion Hurdle prospect until he demolished a very competitive handicap field in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury off top-weight. Stablemate Empire Levant was unpenalised for a 29 length win just two days previously and, whilst he was comfortably clear of the rest, he was no match for Rock On Ruby. The form of that race looks very strong indeed with the 3rd and 5th, Raya Star and Alarazi going on to fight out the finish (1st and 3rd) in the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle. His credentials were tested at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle and I think he ran with great credit. If he had jumped the last well I fancy he would have won and considering conditions were hardly in his favour that must entitle him to respect. I doubt whether he can challenge Hurricane Fly (especially as Nicholls considers him his second string) but he must have place prospects back at a stiffer track. He went down by just a short-head in the Neptune. His run at Aintree behind Spirit Son can be forgiven as he was most likely over the top by then. Unaccompanied (14/1) - A good 2nd in the Triumph after being hampered round the home turn but ultimately she was no match for the winner who was well on top at the line. She has shown good form this year including a defeat of Thousand Stars in the Istabraq Hurdle last week. Her hurdles form reads 112411, mostly at Grade 1 level. She came to Cheltenham with an apparent preference for soft ground, and yet Dermot Weld suggested that the rain at Leopardstown was against her given she has so much speed. She certainly handled good well enough in the Triumph but for whatever reason I can't see her winning the Champion. No real reasoning behind it, just a gut feeling. Thousand Stars (20/1) - 4th in the race last year and seems to be improving all the while. That tend was arrested somewhat when he was beaten last weak at Evens behind Unaccompanied. However, I think there were valid reasons for that, including an unusually poor ride from the master himself, Ruby Walsh. He allowed the race to turn into a speed test, then got boxed in, and despite his mount rallying close home was never quite getting there. I think he's better than that and actually quite like him for place prospects in the Champion Hurdle. I have had a very small EW bet at 33/1 on him and provided he takes his chance, which I think he will, I can certainly see him getting involved. He is tough and consistent, stays further, and you know he'll give you a run for your money. Oscars Well (25/1) - A possibly unlucky 3rd in the Neptune but I'm not convinced he would have won, regardless of whether he slipped at the last or not. This season he has yet to get on the scoresheet, finishing 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, and behind Thousand Stars on two occasions. The Champion test should suit more but he doesn't look a Champion Hurdler to me. Oscar Whisky (25/1) - 3rd in the race last year but I'm not so sure he would confirm placings with Thousand Stars 12 months on. Anyway, that is likely to be irrelevant with connections setting their sights on the towering colossus that is Big Buck's in the World Hurdle. Overturn (33/1) - I keep saying but he is the very definition of a 'cracking little horse'. He is game, consistent and tough, but just short of the very top level. He will give his running once again, and good spring ground will suit him well, but once again he'll find a few too good. Brampour (40/1) - Won two competitive handicaps, including the Greatwood, early in the season and then finished a creditable 3rd in the International. The fact that he ran just a week later to take advantage of a favourable handicap mark tells you all you need to know about his Champion Hurdle aspirations. If he was a genuine contender then you can be damn sure that Nicholls wouldn't have been running him there.
Conclusion - Hurricane Fly is a formidable opponent to all his potential challengers and if he returns to defend his crown then it will take an almighty performance to lower his colours. I have yet to be convinced by any of the horses that have run yet this season (Thousand Stars and Rock On Ruby are perhaps the best of them) so would therefore look towards the unraced duo of Spirit Son and Zarkandar to present the biggest threats. They rank very similar in profile, ratings and so on, and it is no surprise to see the bookmakers pricing them up identically as well. Both trainers think they are their best hopes and that must put them near the top of the tree given the exploits of their less vaunted stablemates. If pushed to choose between the pair I would side with Zarkandar. He is open to any amount of improvement, has had a breathing operation, will relish the strong pace and the hill, and Nicholls appears bullish about his chances. A late start was always the plan so that is of no concern at all. The pair appear closely matched on all known evidence but both will need to produce something special to defeat the reigning Champion, who looks right out of the very top drawer. I have backed Hurricane Fly at 3/1 (Boylesports 12 Days of Christmas special offer) and am happy with that. If he misses the race then it suddenly looks very open but from what I have seen I would be siding with the potential rather than the proven, purely for the fact that the proven does not look good enough.
Not a lot to disagree with their Zen. I think Zarkander is the more likely of last season's novices - the form of his Triumph Hurdle looks very strong. I thought Spirit Son didn't beat that much at Aintree tbh. Do you expect HF to shorten over the next few days based on the pleasing gallop? He was 7/4 not long ago, 5/2 seems massive by comparison.
Good write up Zen. If the Fly proves his wellbeing and impresses he'll be back into 6/4 and could even threaten to be an odds on shot come Champion Day. I have a nice few quid on Unaccompanied at big prices, I agree she doesn't look an obvious winner but she's done nothing wrong, proved her well being and is an obvious improver, and there aren't too many in the field who tick all those boxes....
There was 11/4 with Stan James this morning. The news of Hurricane Fly's gallop was still the top tweet on my feed and that price had already gone. I suspect he'll be 2/1, maybe 9/4, before too long.
The form of last years Supreme is looking as hot as it ever has, the first 5 all look to have big futures, and Spirit Son was the morale victor, Cue Card got racing far to early, and Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son were the only 2 horse's with the pace to go with him, Al Ferof didn't have that immediate acceleration, which was a blessing in disguise, as the 3 out infront cut each others throats, which allowed Al Ferof to pick up the pieces. Had Geraghty not committed to early, and hung on abit, I have no doubt that he would have had far to much speed for Al Ferof. You could probably say the same of last seasons Triumph, the form is red hot, it is very rare you get 1 genuine champion hurdle contender from that race, yet so far Unacompanied and Grandouet have looked very impressive, against some decent CH markers. The bookies seem to be dismissing the mare, making her more than double the price of Grandouet, I realy don't get why, she beat him at Cheltenham, and Thousand Stars(who she beat) is a better hurdler than Overturn(who Grandouet beat) and she wasn't getting any extra weight allowance, other than the mares allowance, which she will get in the CH. These 2 have obviously franked the form of the Triumph, so you would assume Zarkandar should be exceptional, though as we all know, he hasn't run this season thus far. My gut instinct tells me that the Supreme form is alot stronger than the Triumph form, you also must remember that the Supreme time was faster than the CH time, which does back up my point about them getting racing far to early. I also find that 5 year olds are to young, and hurdlers tend to reach there prime once 6, the same age as Spirit Son is. Hurricane Fly had a great season last year, but im convinced something is seriously wrong with him, something that could see him miss the festival. Even if he does make it to the festival, you wouldn't want to trust in his form, without having seen a run first. If he hoses up in the Irish Champion then fair enough, but at the moment I'd leave him well alone. Of the others I suppose you could give Binocular a squeak, he ran well in the Xmas hurdle, and if Henderson could work some of his magic, who knows what could happen. But it's Spirit Son for me at this stage ,
I've just re-watched the Triumph and I must say I had forgotten just how impressive Zarkandar was. He made up ground very easily and was virtually on the bridle at the last and quickened well up the hill to forge clear. He hardly had the ideal trip either. I am impressed enough to invest a little EW for the Champion. He did look really good indeed.
I see what you mean Shergs about the Supreme but I'm not convinced you have it quite right. Spirit Son and Al Ferof ran very similar races, but Al Ferof was just more exaggerated. He was more outpaced and got left further behind than Spirit Son, and then stayed on stronger than Spirit Son. Gentlemen (and Ladies if there are any) I urge you to watch the Triumph. I had completely forgotten just how dominant Zarkandar was, and that is saying something given what the others have subsequently achieved.
My 14/1 that I got for Zarkandar after last years Triumph is looking very good... He didn't run till Febuary last year and hosed up in the Adonis and Triumph, But then again so did Soldatino the year before!
I think it is safe to say that Zarkandar's Triumph is far far superior to Soldantino's. I agree that 14s looks very tasty indeed. Also, as predicted Hurricane Fly is now a best priced 9/4. No more 5/2 left and certainly none of the 11/4. Blue across the board on Oddschecker.
I think if Henderson can get Grandouet right, he will be right up there with HF. Grandouet is a definate CH winner at some point in his career. Just dont know whether it is this year,
You may have a slight point there zenyatta, Spirit Son did drop off Cue Cards tail a little bit, but he was still alot closer than Al Ferof, so he would have paid for it more up the hill. Cue Card is arguably one of the fastest horse's in training, all you have to do is check out his champion bumper victory. The only horse that Cue Card wasn't ableto outpace was Sprinter Sacre. It's actually quite frightening how effortlessly Sprinter Sacre traveled alongside Cue Card turning for home, as it looked like Sprinter Sacre had even more speed than Cue Card. I felt Zarkandar won well enough, but he did impede Unacompanied, and I believe the mare may have got alot closer with a clear run. Still the form is very strong. Having had only 1 winner on Tue-Wed at the festival last year, Unacompaied denied me 7 winners from 7 bets on the Thurs-Fri, so to say I was gutted she lost, is an understatement
I think it was Jacob concentrating more on looking round for dangers rather than looking where he was going! I backed him that day and remembered that I always felt confident but having seen it again, Jacob looks confident he is going to win right from the bottom of the hill. The Supreme was such a funny race. I've watched it loads of times, and I'm still unconvinced by Sprinter Sacre and the hill. Cue Card finds absolutely zilch off the bridle so that is easily explained. It could be that SS is the same, both being keen free going sorts (not necessarily quirky or ungenuine, just keen and giving their all anyway). Spirit Son was outpaced but kept on well which was pleasing. Al Ferof was badly outpaced and kept on very well! I'd backed both Al Ferof and Spirit Son on the Paddy Power money back special so though I'd just broken even coming to the last, and then suddenly I was cheering home a winner. It was very strange. The difference between the two is that if you watch Zarkandar he never looks like he is going to do anything but win. I also think the Triumph form, in a hurdling context, is working out stronger than the Supreme. The Supreme is virtually untested over the sticks with Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card going chasing (and doing very well) and Spirit Son yet to be seen. As for Grandouet Woolcombe I just don't like him simple as that. He's ugly (which never helps in my books!) and I just don't see him as a Champion Hurdle. It has to be a worry that Barry wanted him to go chasing this year. That to me must suggest that he thinks, as does Henderson, that Spirit Son is a stronger contender. Plus I would have liked to see him demolish Overturn and Brampour to have him as a Champion prospect. he only beat them well enough. All 'in my opinion' of course! I think the Champion is really interesting this year. Shergs, on the betting front I was the opposite. I could do no wrong on the Tuesday.
Don't forget Zarkander was "flogged" and "all out" to beat Kumbeshwar at Aintree And the Triumph Hurdle time was only half a second quicker than the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle run 30 minutes later. It's easy to get sucked in by what the beaten horses have done since then but it is possible that they weren't suited by the Triumph Hurdle. They (Grandouet, Unaccompanied et el) have improved from 4 to 5 (which is normal) - but Zarkandar has to show he has also improved by the same amount and more, and we won't know that until we see him again. Zarkander was certainly less impressive at Aintree and based on that form you wouldn't give him a chance in the Champion Hurdle. Doesn't the Triumph winner have a terrble record in the Champion Hurdle as well?
I wouldn't worry too much about his Aintree run Oddy. Paul Nicholls said it took him a while to get over being gelded and he was suprised he went and won at Kempton, He went straight to Cheltenham hosed up in the Triumph and may have been a touch over the top come Aintree espcially considering he had followed up his races in quick succession. A four year old running his 6th run ever and 3 over hurdles. I think we can give him the benefit of the doubt at Aintree. Hes had a breathing op in the summer as do most of Paul Nicholls and the reports are good. I think the horse as alot of talent and could have a big future barring injuries...
Nothing that has run this season will trouble an onsong HF. For Zarkandar or Spirit Son to do so they will, as you say, have to be very special. I think that one of them just might be you know....
Contenders: Hurricane Fly Zarkandar Spirit Son Grandouet Unaccompanied Oscar Whisky I don't think any of the others, Thousand Stars, Rock on Ruby and Binocular all included, have the class to make the top 3. Oscar Whisky as we've said is unlikely to go, although I did think he was impressive at Aintree and is a horse I really like, so if on the off chance he did go, I would be quite interested. But seems to be a good 90% likely to not turn up. Zarkandar and Spirit Son may yet shape up into real stars, but we know no more than we've currently said. I think it's important to note the Supreme form from last year - Spirit Son came between the current Arkle favourite and a novice who may yet be aimed at the Champion Chase - non lacking for pace there, and on the back of that I think Spirit Son is my preference of the two, but I won't be backing either now. (I did actually back both for pittances at 12.5 on betfair after aintree last year, but at the prices now, I wouldn't be interested). For me Unnacompanied is the best of the rest. Grandouet has been good but not brilliant, whilst Unnacompanied has improved for every run and I'm a big fan. Apart, that is, from Hurricane Fly, who for me will win if he shows up, unless Zarkandar or Spirit Son turn out to be real superstars. Therefore I have taken 2-1 NRNB about Hurricane Fly (and given the NRNB consider it good value), and am still considering the 14-1 EW about Unacompanied. For me, she wouldn't beat the Fly, but if he didn't turn up, or if Spirit Son or Zarkandar didn't quite live up to their promise, Unacompanied for me looks very likely to run into a place or even win in the fly's absence. If Spirit Son and Zarkandar don't shape up quite so well, then I think her price could collapse, so I'm tempted to take it now. But haven't quite convinced myself yet!
I just hope Hurricane Fly gets to Cheltenham in one piece, Firstly because hes a brilliant racehorse and whoever won the Champion Hurdle would be laid with the tag of '' Wouldn't have won if the Fly had turned up '' It looks like hes been wrapped up in cotton wool for the Champion Hurdle unless something springs a suprise on him in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Highly unlikely I think...
