I'll be going all 4. I am supposed to have my Dissertation presentation on either the Thursday or the Friday but I can't believe they didn't realise it was Cheltenham when they scheduled it. There's 2% of my degree down the drain! I've taken the 11/4 Sizing Europe today, and backed Kauto at 9/2. I agree like most that Long Run should be favourite but Kauto should be 3/1 not 9/2. Also very tempted by 16/1 about Simonsig for the Supreme. If Nicky would give any sort of indicaition that he is planning on going down that route then I'd take it like a shot. Think he's all about speed, despite his pointing background, and would take all the beating in the Supreme. The current main contenders all look much of a muchness and beatable.
About 3 hours away! University is only 2 hours though. I commuted all 4 days last year (from Uni) which was quite some effort but hoping to stay a couple of nights this time around. I'm hoping to go to the Royal Oak Preview on the Monday night and then have a good laugh before the Tuesday. Bringing a few mates from University down so should be good.
All a month or more ago: Silviniaco Conti - 20/1 RSA (1pt EW) - Worried he might not go but Sonofvic going hurdling might help, especially if Grands Crus goes to the GC. Thousand Stars - 33/1 Champion (0.5pts EW) - Good shot at a place in my book. I think he'll run in this. Hurricane Fly - 3/1 Champion (2pts Win) - Wins if he's there. Peddlers Cross - 9/1 Arkle (5pts Win) - Cracking shot in my book, even after his Kempton defeat. Yesterday: Kauto Star - 9/2 Gold Cup (3pts Win, 2pts EW) - Should be 3/1 and think he can do it if conditions fall his way. I think they might well do. Today: Sizing Europe - 11/4 Champion Chase (2pts Win) - Looks to have very little to beat. That is my current portfolio. Looking to add Simonsig (Supreme) when Henderson decides or lets anybody know where he is going, Zarkandar/Spirit Son (Champion) when they are entered and I know what they're facing, maybe Finian's Rainbow (Champion Chase) before the VC, Long Run (Gold Cup) when he's unimpressive and drifts after his prep, Think that is about it. I haven't done antepost before really but I've enjoyed it this year. Doesn't need to be silly stakes, just for interest and to see what sort of book you can build up by the time March comes around. Edit: Updated to include a point scale, roughly at least.
Just been watching old videos from Old cheltenham festivals- I cant wait to this years!! Wish I was going to all 4 days but my baby will only be about 2 months old! lol sp will have stick with the one! As I live about 3/4 hr drive away from it!!
Peddlers cross 14/1 arkle (not as smug as I was a few weeks ago). Grand Crus 9/1 RSA (Gold cup, don't do it] Finians Rainbow 9/1 (QM) Cinders and Ashes 33/1 (supreme novice)
I don't tend to spend money on antepost betting but whenever I get a free bet or a bonus with the bookies, I put it on Cheltenham (its not like losing money if the horse doesn't even get there). So far I've got: £2.50 ew on: Weapons Amnesty at 20/1 Gold Cup (that's how long ago I started), Quito de la Roque at 20/1 Gold Cup. £5 win on: Peddlers Cross at 6/1 Arkle, Finians Rainbow at 8/1 for the QMCC, Steps to Freedom 11/1 for Supreme novices, Hinterland at 8/1 for the Triumph, Fingal Bay at 8/1 for the Neptune as well as Hurricane Fly at 7/4 for Champion Hurdle.
Does anyone subscribe to Paul Jones ante-post festival summaries ? I only get the Weatherbys festival preview (also by Jones) but I wondered what form his ante post preview takes given that he is mainly a trends man....
I used to bet ante-post on all the championship races at the Festival plus the Arc and some of the Breeders Cup races however, since my retitrement, I can only 'saturate' one race at a time. I have chosen the Gold Cup this year. My bets so far: Kauto Star - 7/1 e/w - Stan James - 26/12/2011 Long Run - 11/4 - Hills - 28/12/2011 Grands Crus - 8/1 NRNB - Ladbrokes - 28/12/2011 Captain Chris - 25/1 - Hills - 02/01/2012 Weird Al - 20/1 NRNB - Ladbrokes - 01/01/2012 Burton Port - 50/1 - Stan James - 30/12/2011 Lomg live 'Oddschecker' I will probably pick off a few more as the weeks progress. This may seem to some a strange way to bet however over the last ten years I have looked upon my ante post betting as a business and am pleased to accept a 30% profit on each race I 'saturate'. This has allowed me to retire early with a fairly decent 'bank'. I have never wagered on a daily basis and for about te last five years have just about restricted my plays to ante post with a few 'daily' bets on special occasions ie Boxing Day at Kempton. Good luck to all, especially those who intend visiting the Festival for the first time. I used to attend every day when it was a three day event however the cost of entrance and hotels/guest houses stopped my visits. I now attend The Trials Day at the end of January which lets me relive the many enjoyable days at the Festival.
Interesting concept Bayern. So basically, as it currently stands you have a guaranteed 5 losing bets out of 6 ........ I assume you are/have/do wagered varying sums according to the odds to budget for around the same return (i.e. £5 on a 10-1 = £10 on a 5-1) I can't imagine how that can possibly prove profitable, surely one "not covered" winner wipes you out? Or is that a rare event? I'm not doubting you - just very curious! It clearly works for you, so good luck fella!
Reebok; you are correct, I lose if I do not have the winner. This has only happened twice in, say, 180 races. I measure my individual wagers so that a reasonably priced winner allows me to break level and any each way returns are profit. The main drawback is being able to accept non runners as accidents waiting to happen and short priced runners finishing second or third. It has also been the case that a winning outsider immediately puts me in in profit. Recently Danedream in the Arc and Drosselmeyer in the BC Classic have satisfied this scenario. I can recall a few races with say eight runners where I have backed every horse. I admit it takes 'big wins' out of the eqaution and also some of the satisfaction of picking one horse against ten however my continuously increasing bank allowed me to satisfy my other 'hobby' - visiting Bavaria!! My ante post betting can only exist with 'Oddschecker', time and sobriety!!!
My ante post betting can only exist with 'Oddschecker', time and sobriety!!! I'll drink to that I actually have issues with Oddschecker, in that I find it virtually impossible to use. It takes so long to load up, and refresh after each "click", that I either time-out, or just get fed up with waiting and go elsewhere. I found a better alternative, certainly in day-to-day betting, is using the ATR racecard, where clicking on the blue odds forecast brings up a decent selection from most major bookies.
