For the big race of tomorrow- is Le Beau Bai & Any Currency E/W- Was 3rd in this 2 years ago, competing off a mark of 143 that year, but now is on 131 this time. Although he does have an extra 4lb on board for winning on the same course last time and it is that win which provides me with a degree of confidence, as not only was he ending a losing run which stretched back well over a year, he also demonstrated once again his love for heavy ground and with Chepstow heavy once again this time, stamina will be at a premium and combined with his excellent jumping and his feather light weight, he most have a good chance of at least a place. Any Currency Is massive e/w value @ 14/1 (best price) He is a proven stayer who wasn't beaten far in the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival last year and he's been a model of consistency, he came back from a year off the track showing no signs of rustyness when coming in a handy 3rd at sandown he hasn't got many miles on the clock, this will be just his 17th career start, and that freshness could be the difference come the end of this terrific slog in the Chepstow mud and is a definate e/w value bet
2.45 Chepstow- Hollow Tree- made my favourite young horse to follow and triumph hurdle aspirant Hinterland pull out all the stops and has subsequently outclassed his Ffos Las rivals. His win at Ffos Las time suggests heavy ground holds no fears for him and his no-nonsense running style and fluent hurdling are also positives.
1.30 Chepstow- Nadiya De La Vega- In her second season of chasing and won the 1st time of of asking this season for her new owner has won a hurdle and 3 chase races varying from 2m-2m 1f on ground varying from good to soft she is carrying extra weight for her last win at haydock last time out but she needed every yard of the two miles to prevail on her Haydock comeback, so this trip should spark further improvement.
WF - I have been looking at Any Currency for a while now, my only doubt is whether he truly acts in the ground, the otehr thing about the ground is that it won't be wet heavy ground, it look slike it will be sticky, gluey, which makes it even more difficult for horses to get home. I will probably have a small interest but I am worried about the ground. Two I am backing are Ballyfitz and Cannington Brook. Ballyfitz is another Just So, needs a bigger test of stamina than any race can provide, at 11 there's no improvement in him but he has been been placed in this race a couple of times and whilst it may be a stretch for him to win Gold he can run a big race off a featherweight at a nice price (20/1). Cannington Brook has alwasy been well thought of and has some very solid form in the book, my only reservation about this one is his lack of experience but Tizz seems very confident about his ability to stay and he seems to have jumped competently in his races so far. He was backed as if defeat was out of the question in a valuable handicap at Doncaster last time though he did seem to stop when left in front after the last, this is more competetive so I doubt the opportunity for the horse to think he;s done enough will exist. 14/1 is a decent price. Good luck all
2.10 Chepstow: OR NOIR DE SOMOZA 50/1 e.w As usual, a barmy selection from myself but I honestly believe that this horse is overpriced. Prolific winner when trained in France, was bought over by the Pipe team presumably with big staying handicaps in mind. Had an absolutely ridiculous mark to contend with last year, running in the Grand National off 152 and actually well in touch when falling at the 6th. Was midfield in the Irish National off 155, and you would think after two poor hurdle results, this might have been a bit of a plot to get his handicap mark down to 136. You also have Conor O'Farrells very handy 3lb claim to take into account. The ground won't be a major concern given his French background and has won on heavy before. I just think that 19lb relief from the handicapper might be enough to reach the frame for a horse who has hinted at ability in these sorts of races, and on best form could get in the mix.
Just had my first look at King Kauto's win yesterday. Amazing. He travelled so sweetly for so long and for the most part, jumped like a stag. To have Long Run off the bit so far out is a testament to his ability to run horses into the ground. While the rest were flat to the boards, Ruby had Kauto cruising along on a bit of string. Long Run was valiant in defeat. Although closing in on the champ in the shadows of the post, he never looks likely to bridge the gap. A great horse is more than just stamina, he has also to be a technician when it comes to his trade. Kauto is that and a whole lot more. He jumps with elan, has an abundance of courage and a will of iron. Some will look to put Long Run before Kauto Star when Gold Cup calculations are debated, and they have every right to, but the great horse will not be ridden in the same fashion in the Cup, as he was yesterday. Ruby will still try to get them off the bit, but he won't fully commit until he thinks he has the wood on the opposition. The horse has been there and done it before, I can see no real reason to believe that he can't do it all again. He is after all, racing with great zest.
Three miles five furlongs around Chepstow, stiff fences, a heavy track, could you get better value for you money today? Riders will be carrying packed lunches. Some probably won't make it home before dark and those who do, will be well and truly rooted. I think I go for Le Beau Bai who gets into this with a pound over the minimum. Has won over the course and distance and enjoys the mud. Chepstow. 14:10. Le Beau Bai. EW.
willie text me but its to rude to publish, edited version ON HIS OWN wins and the bumper is a sure thing meanwhile back in gods country, Richie Mac & Hughsey clean up but at short prices God bless you all and Stay Frosty
Morning all hope everyone is well. Have to say I agree with Grizzly that Cannington Brook holds an outstanding chance in the Welsh National and with the heavy going I would also give Blazing Bailey an e/w squeak off 149. Nap vote goes to Kentford Grey Lady in the 2.05 at Kempton in receipt of 12lbs from the Henderson mare whilst in the Kempton 3.10 Alan King's Midnight Appeal looks very interesting on his first try at 3 miles, first time head-gear and Charlie Huxley claiming 3. For those who like shorties: Peddlers Cross, Finians Rainbow, Big Zeb and Sous Les Cieux should all oblige. Best of luck today everyone
Morning all... Well its the day after the great day of the champion and im still reading all the praise thats being bestowed upon the great Kauto Star... Its certainly something to warm the very cockles of yer heart...!!! Some good racing today and i hope to pick out the winners and not the flaggers... Oddy im with you on Kentford Grey Lady... Back in a bit...
mornings all,a rare visit from moi. willie muggins--my arse. thought i would just put up a couple of snorters that i can only pronounce after a gallon and a quart of the finest ale. AD IDEM at leptoon -20-1 is massive. AS DE FER at chep --10-1 2 eway singles,and 2 eway shuff de coouch,under the cross bar ,doubles.
oh---and just thought that i would let you know---i was victorious in the annual boxing day "great north dig"--held on bamburgh beach.using the new titanium,carbon shafted shovel i got for xmas. managed to dig up a bit of viking history---noggin the nogs personal chopper,that he used to rape and pillage the area a few years ago.
Can anyone tell me anything about the V Williams runner Kapga De Cerisy...?? He runs in the 2.45 Juvenile Hurdle... Looks an interesting runner for this and im tempted to take on the 8/1 offered against the fav Hollow Tree... Though could be a watching race only as i like the chances of Countrywide Flame to...
I've had to update my signature in the appreciation of what we witnessed yesterday- ALL HAIL KING KAUTO- Hope the forumites like it!
sure can redc-------it would take me 2 gallon of ale to pronouce that one ffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Juveniles on heavy at Chepstow is one to swerve for me red That Lavelle horse won 1 of 9 in France (on very soft). Last seen when a well beaten 5th in a Grade 1 at Auteuil. You can see his form here: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/ho...=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form For what it's worth I like the Alan King horse but won't be betting in the race.
