26th December - Boxing Day Daily Thread

As promised, my second daily thread after the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Regardless of bets and who we fancy I am sure that we are all hoping for the same result this time around.

I will post my selections and thoughts later.

 

Forget Christmas, Boxing Day is what the festive period is all about. The King George is the obvious highlight, but there is a terrific supporting card headed by the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and the Grade 1 Feltham Novices' Chase; a trio of races that wouldn't look out of place at the Festival in March.

2.00 - Williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase (3m) Grade 1

Bobs Worth - A banker at the Festival in the 3m Albert Bartlett Hurdle. He won as many expected, comfortably without being impressive. He is never a horse that is particularly pleasing on the eye and this means he might be underrated. However, whilst he won on his fencing debut I wasn't particularly taken with the performance. I might be falling into the trap I just mentioned but he seemed to lack a bit of size and scope that day. Also, not convinced the track will play to his strengths.He has won 6 on the bounce so it's hard to dismiss him.

Grands Crus - Only Big Buck's was his superior over hurdles last season and he has looked decent over the bigger obstacles this term. I had my doubts about him as a chaser because he was slightly on the small side and rather downhill in build last season. However, he looks a different horse this season and I have changed my position on him completely. He looked a little 'guessy' in places at Cheltenham, most notably at the ditch at the top of the hill, but was really impressive when holding of Sonofvic at Newbury last time. That rival might well be a very good horse in his own right but I was most taken by his fluent and clever jumping that day. Clearly has the engine and it will take a good one to stop him.

Mr Moonshine - A wide margin winner of two Novice races before a more than respectable 3rd in the Peterborough Chase behind Gauvain and Somersby. I suspect he might be slightly flattered by the result since he never looked like winning but the step up to 3m looks to be in his favour. He might not have the star quality of some of these but I thought 20/1 looked too big.

Silviniaco Conti - A horse that I am quite keen on. He was talked of as a potential Champion Hurdler at one time but a fair 3rd in the International put paid to those fanciful ambitions. He was always likely to prove better for a fence and a trip and I still think that is the case. He was beaten first time up but the slow pace would not have suited and he was unfit. Next time he showed what he was capable of when slamming a decent field in a Grade 2 at Wincanton. On both occasions his jumping was excellent. He has a bit of class and I think he will stay.

Teaforthree - He got off the mark over fences at the 3rd time of asking at Chepstow a few weeks back. That win came on heavy ground and stamina appears to be his strong suit. I suspect a few of these might prove a touch too classy for him round this much sharper test.

Emmaslegend - Just the one chase start to her name when hacking up by 24 lengths at Folkestone. As a result she is already rated higher over fences than she was over hurdles but still has a fair bit to find with the principles. her weight allowance will come in handy but this is a tough ask.

Conclusion - A really top quality renewal which will provide some invaluable pointers ahead of the Festival with many of the key contenders for the Jewson/RSA taking their chance. Grands Crus has looked good so far and is hard to oppose. I wasn't particularly impressed with Bobs Worth first time but he is game and consistent and always workmanlike. I am a big fan of Silviniaco Conti and the sharp 3m here might be just perfect. I think he will stay, but couldn't be certain, and he might be worth a chance. At 4/1 I think he only fair value because this is a tough ask. At the prices, the 11/8 about Grands Crus is perhaps the best on offer. The other of interest is Mister Moonshine who looks far too big at the 22/1 available with Victor Chandler. The question is whether you could actually fancy him to get in the first two, and that looks unlikely.

2.35 - Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (2m) Grade 1

Binocular - The winner of the race last year but I have him down as just short of top class, despite an impressive win in the Champion Hurdle. I firmly believe he will never be a match for an on song Hurricane Fly but whether he faces anything of that calibre in this field is a different matter altogether. He's renowned for his inconsistency and it is hard to recommend him with any confidence. Connections were undoubtedly disappointed by his reappearance and I would avoid him in this.

Clerk's Choice - The dark horse in the International Hurdle a few weeks back but trailed in a disappointing 7th of 8 beaten 52 lengths. Hard to recommend him on the back of that poor effort.

Overturn - A cracking little horse who has given connections a brilliant time both on the flat and over the sticks. Already a winner of the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle, the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth and 2nd in the Grade 2 International this season. Was intended to have a nice break but the favourable ground has tempted them towards this prize. He was 2nd last year, but had Binocular, his conqueror that day, back in 2nd at Newcastle in November.

Rock On Ruby - Always thought of as more of a stayer and the 2m trip and sharp track might, therefore, be a disadvantage. However, since finishing 3rd on his bumper debut his form over 2m or 2m1f reads 11111, and over further reads 223. That might have more to do with the opposition than the trip but there can be little doubt that he is useful over 2m as well. Interestingly the Neptune (as it now is) has thrown up a few decent 2m hurdlers, none more so than triple winner Istabraq, but there is also Hardy Eustace and most recently Peddlers Cross. However, of most interest is that Rock On Ruby was just beaten in a manner that suggested that a drop to 2m might be beneficial. This race is the acid test and will show whether he is Champion Hurdle class and I think he might be up to it given how well the form of his Newbury Handicap win has worked out. Given that the opposition have more than their fair share of question marks I just think he might be worth the chance.

Sanctuaire - A bit of an enigma and I thought he might go well in the International. He looked to be travelling well into the home straight but found precisely nothing when asked. Might outrun his odds once again but hard to see him beating them all home. He has only ever won with Ruby on his back so the lack of his assistance is a big negative.

Conclusion - A race that looks a tight three way battle between Binocular, Overturn and Rock On Ruby. The odds reflect that; 2/1, 2/1 and 5/2. Binocular is entitled to improve for his reappearance but I'm not convinced that will be enough to beat Overturn if he gets his favoured good ground. That said it looks very close between the two and it might be worth chancing Rock On Ruby. I'm not convinced that the track will suit entirely but he hasn't looked short of pace, and, with Overturn sure to set a good gallop in front, it shouldn't be a sprint. He might fall short but he might be better than them both too.

 

3.10 - William Hill King George VI Chase (3m) Grade 1

Eight have been left in at the final forfeit stage and there are no surprises. The field may be select but the quality is exceptional. It will take a very good performance to take this year's crown and, on paper at least, it looks a race to savour. I think a performance of at least 180 will be required and with that in mind it looks a two (maybe three) horse race. I can't say my view on the race has changed a great deal since I posted my antepost thoughts but a few views have firmed up, a few altered slightly.

Tom Segal in this week's Weekender said that Master Minded has "absolutely zero chance of winning". I would be inclined to agree and will lay him for a place. On the bare form he is probably 3rd best of these (behind Long Run and Kauto Star) but I don't see him staying the trip, and there are others open to plenty of improvement. I don't think he has run to much more than 170 for the past two seasons, including his romp in the Melling Chase. Therefore, he will need to improve by 10lbs for the trip and I just don't see that happening. Far more likely is that he is 10lbs below his best and with that in mind I can't see him much better than 5th; I suspect Somersby, and possibly Diamond Harry, might be in front of him at the trip. He was a solid enough 5/1 but is already drifting like the proverbial barge and can see him hitting double figures on the day.

In contrast the confidence around Captain Chris is infectious. He is now shortening all the while and is now a best priced 7/1, although as short as 6/1 in places. If he had a smooth run into the race I would be bullish about his chances EW, but his price would most likely be shorter as a result. I think it is still very fair and I am happy with my 8/1 and 9/1 EW. Richard Johnson seems most positive about his chances and that is pleasing to see.

Paul Nicholls has issued positive bulletins about Kauto Star and I see no real reason why he can't run to the Betfair form. If he can it will take a good performance to lower his colours. With Ruby back in the plate this year, the stage is set for an historic 5th King George. I think he has an excellent chance brining the house down.

Somersby is perhaps the dark horse and whilst I would be astonished if he were to win he looks the most likely to pick up the pieces if any of Kauto Star, Long Run and Captain Chris disappoint. He falls into a similar category to Diamond Harry but my preference would be for the Knight runner.

The favourite Long Run heads the market entirely on merit and his claims are there for all to see. He will be many people's banker on the day and it is easy to see why. That said his lack of a gear is a concern and would be enough to put me off at the price. The way connections were rattled at the Betfair still rankles with me. There is no way they were expecting to be put in their place like that. He must surely improve for the run, but improve he must, and I don't think the form reversal is anything like as inevitable as the odds suggest.

I think the ground will be around good to soft and with that in mind I think the top 3 is as follows: 1. Kauto Star 2. Long Run 3. Captain Chris. I find it hard to see anything else getting in the three, barring mishaps.

I have already backed Kauto Star at 9/2 EW and Captain Chris at 8/1 and 9/1 EW. I would also advise a few nice tricasts and forecasts involving the three of them to support the single bets.

Win, lose or draw, it is a fantastic race to look forward to.

 

P.S. I had that all written up before today. I do have a life . . . honest!

 

nice work zen

 

I don't agree that Master Minded as only roughly run to around 170 for the past two years Zen, I think thats abit unfair to be honest. I think hes ran above 170 a fair few times the past two years the Melling Chase for one, I've heard comments recently that he was probably the best horse on the day because he didn't have such an hard race at Cheltenham lets be fair he clattered the second from home it wasn't like he was pulled up at the very start of the race. 2 miles is clearly too sharp but I reckon he is still probably the best 2 miler in England at the moment probably inferior to just Sizing Europe and Big Zeb overall, He was impressive in his last Tingle Creek win at Cheltenham beating an half decent field not top class but he did it with ease, He had Gauvain a full 20 lengths behind him who if we went on official figures was rated 159 by the official handicapper. His 2009/2010 season was plauged with problems and his breathing was affecting him quite badly as it was proved after a breathing op he had a decent season 4 wins from 5 stars including 3 group ones, Hes not a 2miler anymore and like any championship race at Cheltenham espcially the Champion Hurdle/Chase one blunder and your race is over if he hadn't hit two out he would have placed. I do think hes run above 170 a couple of times in the past two seasons and I have a feeling he will suprise a few people at Kempton tomorrow... I hope he does anyway

 

Morning one and all- I hope you all are having a smashing Christmas

Here are my selections as I have a busy Boxing Day and will not be online.

3.10 Kempton (King George)

SOMERSBY (19.5 Betfair)

I know about 98% of the board disagree with me on Somersby but most of you who are on here know I have championed the case that Somersby will be a better horse over further.

After his latest run in the Peterbrough chase, he got very badly outpaced and his tongue was visibly lolling out the side of the horses mouth. There is no question in my mind that his breathing was affected and I suspect he was taking in a breath when getting outpaced before typically staying on again too late. There were two things I wanted Henrietta Knight to do: a) Step him up to 3m so we give him the chance to improve having looked outpaced at shorter, and b) Give him a tongue-tie, to make sure his breathing is okay.

She has done both of those, which I am delighted about as I did not expect the latter, and therefore I have to keep my faith that he will find improvement today. He has a fair bit to find with Long Run and Kauto Star and will therefore need that improvement, but this is a maturing horse and I think we will see him regularly contesting 3m Grade Ones over the next two seasons when he turns 8 in the New Year.

He has no problems going right handed, with two cracking efforts behind Master Minded at Ascot, and readily saw off Ainteenthirtythree over 2m 5f here at Kempton on seasonal reappearance. He cannot lack for fitness having run 3 times already this season, and the Peterborough chase should have him spot on for his first attempt at 3m in his career so far. He has so often seemed to come up shor at elite level but perhaps if he improves as I hope he does at this distance, we might be saying that what he achieved over 2m was actually a bonus. A little fanciful perhaps, but this has been his target all season and if that is viewed as a positive for his old rival, Master Minded, then it is another plus point for this dark horse on the drift.

I wanted a price that reflected his unfancied nature, and 12/1 with the bookies seemed a little tight to me, and as he is friendless on the exchanges you can get 18/1 on Betfair, which I have been happy to take.

Saver: Master Minded 7/1

I think he is going to prove people wrong today with a big run for Daryl Jacob. It'll be tough to win the race against proper stamina horses like Long Run and Kauto, but he might just jump his way to the front 4 out and then it will be down to who can finish well enough to beat him.

He looked as fit as a fiddle on the gallops with Kauto Star from the footage available, much leaner than at the beginning of the season, and I think that is important with him, with Nicholls having made reference to the fact that the last year or so, he has taken a lot, lot longer to get fully fit. His Old Roan run looked a disaster at the time, but having since won at Ascot and with two runs under his belt, it might have been perfect in terms of gauging his peak fitness.

He has never lost going right-handed, so whilst you know not to read too heavily into that as it needs context, at least we know Kempton should provide few problems. I hope he travels well and jumps well, so that when we get to the business end, we know whether or not he stays the trip. Interesting to watch him regardless of opinions, as he is a terrific jumper.


I think Captain Chris is well worth a shot at 3 miles, but he did improve with racing last year and having had a tricky preparation, I regrettably had to leave him out of calculations for todays purposes, but is a horse I really like. He will no doubt hose up today in record time!

As for the rest of the card:


12.50 Kempton: VULCANITE 7.6 (Betfair)

Really interesting recruit to hurdles, I think Charlie Longsdon is a really good trainer and the more quality he recruits like this, the better. Has not been rushed and should have had plenty time to school sufficiently. Very good ability on the flat, winning off 97, and pitched in against some decent older horses here. Hopeful of a big run.

1.25 Kempton: LOCH BA 8/1

Only course and distance winner in the field and one that I feel is well handicapped. Would have won last time but for some big errors and I think a clear round would see him go close. Some smart form in bumpers behind horses who have gone well into the 120s and 130s, and this horse has definitely shaped as if he can win a couple of decent races off a mark of just 113.

2.00 Kempton: SILVINIANO CONTI 7/2

Looked a really assured jumper behind Cue Card on debut (trainer said he would badly need the run) and made no mistake on second start. Is being brought to the boil nicely with Cheltenham in mind and I think there is still a lot of improvement to come. Jumping is what could propel him to victory here, and although I love Grands Crus and want him to be a chaser of the highest level, I have my doubts about him right-handed. Bobs Worth is smart too. Smashing race, but SC looks the value.

2.35 Kempton: BINOCULAR 15/8

Smashing record right handed, double winner at both Kempton and Ascot. Almost always traditionally improves for his reappearance, and I think he has a very strong chance of reversing the form with Overturn. Rock on Ruby could be smart, but I think is short of the very elite. Binocular is a very quick hurdler and I think over a very fair, flat Kempton that suits speed, should have the pace to see off the challenge, though would not rule out a reversal of form at a stiffer track.

This is Binoculars sort of race, and there really are no excuses.

1.45 Wetherby: SARANDO 8/1

Very talented and capable of making his mark in a big handicap. Bang there before falling in the Hennessey, pushed Quito De La Roque close at Aintree last year, and won very easily penultimate start. I think this is a fair price anf he jumps well he'll go very close

 

******diamond harry non runner*****

 

Morning all and festive greetings, hope you have all enjoyed the days but today is the big boys day !!!!!!1 Great Racing and Football
ive backed Man Utd Chelsea Man City Liverpool and Newcastle accumulator pays about 8s

Wont bore you with my horses
except the ones the fat lads are on




James bags a double on Arrow barrow and always right
he may sneak home on broke the gate so back that ew im told

Hughsey gets My Arch in the winners enc and Wilson does the same with chicgo outfit

Dizzy River is fancied as well



so stay frosty and have a great day



merry xmas everybody

 

REALMONT (NAP) should be the easiest 2/1 winner ever if running to anywhere near his best form. He showed rapid improvement when winning at Auteuil in April 2009 by 10 lengths and proved it to be no fluke when running LONG RUN to 2 3/4 lengths in a listed race at the same track. He again bettered that on his next and latest start when running 3rd in a Grade 1 behind Rubi Ball finishing 1 and a half lengths behind the winner and this time getting within half a length of Long Run pulling 20 lengths clear of the 4th. This is a horse with genuine grade 1 form running in a class 4 novices hurdle at Ffos Las on ground he will relish. Yes he has been off for a long time (over 2 years) but he has joined a top stable since and should readily outclass these this afternoon

 

Morning Odddy hope you had a good one mate. San Miguel in the fridge now ready for the first race come on cracking racing - loads of bets today. Check out Realmont as posted above and let me know what you think

 

Morning gents and hope we all had a great time over the past few days with family and friends... Plenty of festive fuel in us all i hope. But now its time to burn off that extra slice of turkey, fret away that extra glass of wine as its the day where you get an overload of some top, and i mean top class sport...

Good luck to all who play today, and lets hope we can get amongst the winners big time...!!!

Back in a bit as there are so many to look at... Oddys elephant aside, mine is more anaconda like...!!!

 

Rumours that this is why James Reveley wasn't down to ride, ie that he was a doubtful runner.

Glad I had my EW bets antepost.

 

Morning all,

The one that interests me is the mullins runner in the last at leopardstown, very short price but could be a cheltenham horse if it has lots of stamina

 

Zen
re james dead right, thats why he would not speak to the press, not use to dealing with them yet

 

Morning Heis...

Dont want to jinx you with your footy bet, looks a good call tho, but ive a bad feeling with Rovers visit to Liverpool... We are so short of goal scorers that that will test your accy if its 0-0 and 20mins left... Good luck tho pal...

Im looking froward to what could be a great day for us sports fans... Let battle commence...!!!

 

Morning all. Good luck today. Very busy day for me won't see any racing. Hope Johns Spirit at Towc can win off top weight and others for me Tetlami and Long Run.