Champion Hurdle - early thoughts

Despite doubting Hurricane Fly's form up until last years Champion Hurdle, I have to admit that he could well be the most talented hurdler since Istabraq, and if he does show up fit and well at the festival, then it will take something pretty special to dethrone him.

I would be worried about taking a short price on him at this stage though, as we all know he's incredibly injury prone, and I don't like what I've heard about him this season, things like he didn't impress on the gallops in an exercise canter, which has delayed his return. So I wonder to myself why he isn't impressing, is there something not quite right, just as there has been in previous years.

Grandouet has been impressive, don't forget this horse is only 4, and I don't believe Champion Hurdlers realy reach there peak until 6, so he is exceptionally talented for a horse of 4, and should be still improving, and it's quite possible he will have found a good few more lenghs on his international form by the time the Champion Hurdle comes round.

Zarkandar is a horse that excites me, particularly with him being so closely related to Zarkava, the great Arc filly, he is a horse that looks to have an exceptional turn of foot, and the form of last seasons Triumph has been boosted by Grandouet, Unacompanied and Brampour. Obviously it's highly likely that Grandouet and Brampour are just much better horse's than they were in last seasons Triumph, but there's no reason to suggest why Zarkandar won't improve with another year to strenghen up. I'm not concerned that we won't see him until January, as Nicholls has already stated, that the horse is fine, he just wants to do things the same as last year, and that was a seasonal debut in Febuary, why change a winning formula?

The horse that I fancy the most at the prices is Spirit Son, he was unlucky in last years Supreme, they went off very fast, and most of the big guns commited for home far to early, including Spirit Son, and that played into the hands of a hold up horse that stays well, which allowed Al Ferof to stay on past him, though Spirit Son beat all the other horse's who committed to early, and were up with the pace. At Aintree he absolutely pulverised them, and looked like a real class act. I have also heard some inside information from the Henderson yard, that Spirit Son is there best Champion Hurdle prospect, so as he's double the price of Grandouet, and he's 6 years old, so a year
more mature than his stable rival, then if your backing one of the Henderson runners, Spirit Son has to be the one, and he would be my selection at this stage, at the prices.

Of the others, the only other 2 i could give a chance to is firstly Oscar Whisky, who is
unlikely to run, but I think he could improve on his 3rd last year if he got a stronger gallop this year. Though I suppose it's a compliment to Hendersons other runners chances, if he doesn't run and goes for the World Hurdle instead. The other one I like is Thousand Stars, though he would only run if HF doesn't make it, and let's be honest that's not beyond the realms of possibilitys. If HF does run then he will go for the World Hurdle instead

 

As far as I can see the Champion Hurdle picture looks pretty clear . . . at the moment!

If Hurricane Fly turns up then he wins, and I really do think it is as simple as that. He has it all and it is impossible to envisage a scenario where he gets beat. He is faster than anything else, he stays as well as anything else, he handles heavy ground, he handles good ground, he has the best jockey on his back, and so on. The list of positives is enormous. The one negative is his fragility. If he isn't there in March then it will be a disaster and the race will be significantly poorer for it. If he lines up I would expect him to be an odds on shot, unless either Zarkandar or Spirit Son (more of them later) come out and do something special in the New Year.

I don't fancy anything we have seen yet this season. Grandouet, Overturn, Binocular, Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars etc. If pushed I would nominate the last named who has the proven form in the book but still looks hugely progressive. I was impressed with his return and still think that Mullins will aim him at this race rather than the World Hurdle. I have had a small investment EW at 33/1 because, if the Hurricane isn't there, I think he might be the best of those that has shown their hand so to speak. I don't rate the International form (I didn't last year either) so couldn't be having Grandouet, or anything in behind him, as a Champion Hurdler at this stage. He is still on the up so might find the necessary improvement, but I doubt it.

Therefore, the two who I see as the obvious dangers to The Hurricane's crown are Spirit Son and Zarkandar. Paul Nicholls has been very open about the fact that he is the best Champion Hurdle prospect that he has had. I wouldn't disagree. His hurdling debut was very taking and I backed him for the Triumph accordingly where he was a convincing winner from a decent field. At Aintree he was workmanlike but he was entitled to be having had a hard race at Cheltenham. He is open to any amount of improvement, especially after his breathing operation. He was quite comfortably the best in the Triumph and so long as he has progressed as you would expect I would be surprised if he wasn't still the best of them now. The other is Spirit Son who was most impressive at Aintree. Admittedly the form might not be the strongest with the overrated Cue Card back in 2nd, but he was well clear of the field. Like Shergar, the word is that this is Henderson's Number 1 hope for the race, and that alone means he is worthy of great respect. I am really looking forward to their returns. The problem is that their chance is based very much on their potential to improve. Both should do so but it is no certainty and it is near impossible to assess their chances without seeing how they have fared over the summer. They both look exciting.

So for me, it is all about Hurricane Fly. If he turns up I think he will win. Accordingly I am delighted with my £20 at 3/1 courtesy of Boylesports. Even with the doubts about his fitness I think that is a more than generous price. The two who might give him most to think about are Spirit Son and Zarkandar. They were the most exciting novices/juveniles from last year and seem to have the obvious potential to develop into Champion Hurdle contenders. That said, they need to find significant improvement on the track to confirm their potential. If they fall short of the required level, I fancy Thousand Stars, who is perpetually underrated, to chase home his stablemate. He hasn't the class of Hurricane Fly but he is admirably tough and consistent, and still improving in my opinion. I'm not saying he's going to win, though he might if Hurricane Fly misses the race, but he might well nick a place.

 

Spirit Son does possibly look the likliest but to quote Oddy about his 'impressive' Aintree romp 'he only beat Cue Card ffs' To be honest I don't think the Hurricane will lose much sleep over any of these names being bandied against him...

 

Guys I can't be having this race as a procession. Not yet. As impressive as he was last year I think there's a live chance that the fly will face at least one horse that is better than anything he's faced to date. Whether they'll be good enough given that he seemed to have something left is another question but I really believe that PC is the only top, top level hurdler that the fly has faced and even then PC always looked a little suscepitble to something with genuine pace. HF has this. But for my money so does Zarkandar. What was so exciting about Grandouet winning is that it also boosts Zarkandar's form. Then you've got the whispers that Spirt Son is Nickys number 1 and you have two horses that COULD be the best HF has had to face. Who's to say they haven't improved the same as Grandouet has? I'm not for one second saying HF will lose (imho the likelihood at this stage is that he'll win and by further than he did last year) but I think to say this race is all over before we've even seen the two leading contenders is, in my opinion, premature!! <prepares to get slated>

 

I backed Zarkandar at 14's after his Triumph win (A steal I think) Paul Nicholls is aiming the Kingwell in Feburary as his next start. I was impressed from his first run over timber at Kempton were he won wise ease over Molotof who isn't a second rate hurdler himself, He confirmed that form at Cheltenham beating Unaccompanied who is a top class horse herself, Aswell as Grandouet who was impressive in the International last weekend. He acts around Cheltenham, He picked them up when he wanted in the Triumph and the time for the Triumph was half a second slower than the Champion Hurdle which will have excited his owners aswell as Paul Nicholls. Hes had a wind op during the summer and hopefully hes improved from last year, His last run wasn't as impressive as the two before but lets remember he ran 3 races very quickly winning 2 Grade 1's and a Grade 2. Im looking forward to his return...

I remember the doubters backing Hurricane Fly last year and he proved hes the best since Istabraq beating a true Cheltenham specialist in Peddlers Cross who loves the hill, Just had too much speed and I hope he is there again next March, Hes very fragile but as bundles of class and will be hard to beat if he turns up in the same form as last year. Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar, Grandouet, Spirit Son. Mouthwatering clash... All being well they get there in one piece!

 

I think this is the key point. Their standing in the market is based entirely on potential given that on the official ratings they both have something like 20lbs to find to trouble Hurricane Fly.

I agree that they 'could', but at the moment it will take one hell of a good one to emerge to dethrone him. I think he is brilliant.

And for that matter, I rate Peddlers Cross very highly indeed, so the way he was able to keep PC at bay up the Cheltenham hill was most impressive. I doubt he will face many, if any, with the ability, will and determination of that one.

He's hardly home and hosed, but I have yet to see one that can challenge him. I hope either Zarkandar, Spirit Son or both are up to the required level.

 

Exactly what I have been trying to say!! Well done George! Its too early to saythat hf will easily win, I completely agree with you!!

 

Istabraq......I wouldn't be reading to much into those times, the Triumph hurdle is ran on the new course, where as the Champion and Supreme are ran on the old course. The ground would have also likely been different, from Tues to Fri, it had dryed out alot by Fri hence the track record in the Gold Cup

 

Times are utterly irrelevant re NH racing..E.O.S...how many times is the tape raised raised and they merely amble out?

HF won't make the CH imo,if he does he wins.He pulled like a train last year and still won although i'm not of the opinion,like most on here,that PC is the second coming.

The frorm is average.Zarkander needs all of a fast run stiff 2m to be competitive and won't be quick enough for the two mile division..even though it looks a poor lot if HF doesn't recover from his mysterious malady.

All a bit boring tbh like most NH racing latterly.

 

Sorry Wooly not quite with you there...HF has run once in England and won the Champion Hurdle!..the clue is the race name...he has proved himself.

He has not yet entered into some hypothetical and ethereal comparison with ghosts of the past,nor does he have to yet,or indeed ever...his rivals have it all to prove,not him...his name is deservedly already carved into the trophy.

 

I personally think it's quite indisputable that people would still question Hurricane Fly even if he was to win the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase and then Le Mans, one after each other, without even a potty break in between... It would probably be that, 'well he hasn't won X Factor yet and until then I'm not convinced by the hype'...I might be wrong but I somehow doubt it

 

woolcombe either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ!


Danish I see what you're saying with Binocular. I don't know if he won a weak Champion Hurdle or if he's got a lot worse but I agree he won't be challenging as he is, and probably never has been, good enough to beat a horse like HF. With regards to Overturn, he was due to be put away for the CH after Newcastle. The fact that they brought him out recently shows one of two things. Either they thought it was a weak renewal and a good chance of some dough OR he was 100% fit and fresh so they thought why not. I presumed it was the latter because the race wasn't that prestigous. Thinking about it now it could very well be the former. I think you've hit the nail on the head in that HF is so good that all the hurdlers who we've seen so far we've basically put a line through. We're left with the two we're talking about precisely because they haven't run! In essence i agree with what you and Zen are saying so all eyes will be on their reappearence when we'll have a better idea of whether we have CH contenders (though they'll probably both need the run as well!!) Can't wait

 

Thanks for posting this lovely pic, woolcombe-folly, it's now my screensaver.

I won't lose faith in Binocular, either.

The Champion Hurdle is my favourite race of the festival....I really hope Hurricane Fly is there in March.

Some very interesting reading, on this thread.

 

No worries Epona, It was my screen saver too but now have a picture of me jumping my horse!

As you can see I am big fan of his (one of his only fans on this site it looks like) I really hope he turns up with Hurricane Fly 100% although HF will prbly win would love to see a tight CH it is a great race!!

 

A few of us discussed this ones chances on another thread yesterday and I broke a 15 year rule and backed her at 33s last night.
Unaccompanied has the dreaded 5 yo stat to overcome but I still maintain she would have beaten Zarkander in the Triumph had she not met trouble, what I like about her is that she let that day, got swallowed up then battled back, she is 100% genuine.
Not given a hard time and probably over the top (easy for duel flat/NH to do) at Punchestown I can ignore that run, but what it's done is put the focus on Granduet and allowed this one to slip under the radar - people forget that since the Spring she smashed a Breeders Cup winner in the waiting by 6 lengths !
I'm not sure there's as much strength in depth this year (unless something appears from nowhere) and at 33s I'm happy taking a chance on the mare the emulate Flakey Dove.
Of course Cheltenham 2012 is different from 1994 as there are other options for this horse, she may take on Quevega in the mares for instance, but the price is big enough not to hurt me, it would be a different story if I was smashing into a 3/1 shot.
Of course we all hope HF makes the big day, I think Unaccompanied can run him close if he does.....

 

Could someone explain to me why Unaccompanied was unlucky against Zarkandar. If she was then she must be a good ew shot, but according to the RP Zarkandar was "always in control".

 

She certainly got squeezed approaching the last but I think the bigger intereference came approaching 2 out when she was pulled to avoid colliding, Townend then pushed her to get back into contention and she responded immediately, in fact she responded too well because within a matter of strides she was running up Grandouets back side and had to be pulled again !
She was interefered with up the run in but I think it was a combination of the stop/start nature of how she was ridden that prevented her from finishing closer, in the end she was only 2 lengths down.
Hold up horses are always more likely to suffer from traffic, I think Unaccompanied can be ridden closer though she certainly has the pace...

 

Is that your horse in your avatar, woolcombe? He/she looks lovely. I'd had horses all my life till my last one died in '04, I've never ridden since.

Doesn't Binocular have many fans on here?

He'll have to be in the form of his life to beat The Fly in March.....but I won't be at all surprised if he does.

I might actually have a bet on him Boxing Day.....Binocular, Grands Crus and Kauto in a treble.....the first bet of my life!

I'll have to work out how to put one on first.......tho' I do have a betfair account