Again this race presents a 'gambler's dilemma'... the cold calculating side of me says LR (even though I don't rate him a great, or anywhere near) should be up to seeing off a KS who surely is on the downgrade, a few days shy of his 12th birthday. The other part of me, like most, can see another fairytale outcome a la Haydock when true greatness returns to the top. Unfortunately last time I went with the cold calculating half and done my dough well and truly! I remember debating the race beforehand and my comment regarding the bookies lengthening of LR the night before was along the lines of 'if's something too good to true it usually is' (in relation to LR going increasingly odds against) and the general consensus was that he was now becoming 'real value'... (I blame Shergy though as he assured me that LR was ready and well fit enough to do himself justice ) I do concur though, he was fit but simply not good enough against a truly great horse... Yep, I think I'll be sticking to my guns and back the horse who won't stay. Master Minded.
just lost massive entry. smart phones suck. in summary. great thread. why do trainers say he's always looked like he wants 3 miles but haven't run them over it. m annoying. backed g way without long run hopingfield would cut up. hasn't. like c Chris but no value at 8. potential. as many jumping probs as long run. this much better than anything he's run in.
Expect the sports shining star, Mr Henderson, to glitter on St Stephen’s Day. Only one winner for me Long Run. Can actually see much the same happening as in the previous renewal. Long Run travelling effortlessly into the home straight and then when old SWC presses the button him galloping clear for an easy win and the crowd then roaring their approval. For the places I’d go with Kauto Star and Diamond Harry. Although if either of the 66/1 long shots are ridden to place rather than to win don’t rule out them getting a place as the others may burn themselves out trying to keep tabs on Long Run and Kauto Star.
There are as-yet undiscovered tribes in the Amazon delta who knew you were going to say that Sir Barney Nice avatar
It looks a good renewal, I see the sentimental money is coming for Kauto Star, and I reckon he could go off as short as 2/1. I cant be backing or fancying Kauto Star at such short odds. So I will be looking to oppose him. Long Run has shown he loves Kempton, and knocked Kauto Star off his perch last year, in this very race, and I expect a fully fit Long Run, to have no problems seeing him off again. The big danger to me is the classy Master Minded, I think he will love the step up to 3 miles and could serve it up to Long Run at the finish. So I'd advise a large bet on Long Run, but save your stake money on Master Minded
Thats what you said before Haydock too, along with your usual rhetoric 'Kauto Star won't be winning, it's as simple as that' ....Only jesting old boy Anyways am I the only one to really worry about Long Run's jumping in a high tempo affair like this will surely become? He really was all over the place when Kauto Star showed how to travel and jump at speed the last day. In fact the most reoccurring theme about LRs performances are how many jumping errors he makes. A big engine, for sure, as he obviously can win despite these errors! However in a KG like this the fact he seemingly struggles to travel and jump at pace, the way classy horses al a Kauto Star and Denman can do, must be a concern? The more I think about it the more I can see his jumping going to pieces when the pace hots up. And I'm having difficulty buying into the whole 'we seen what he done last year' argument. .. I think most people accept last years race simply fell into his lap, with the great horse clearly under the weather. I find this an extremely hard race to solve and can see why the top two in the market are so popular and therefore I'm about the only one in the Master Minded camp
I think it all depends if Kauto can reproduce his Haydock run. I wouldn't discount Diamond Harry, he could be a big danger. I just hope we see an on song Kauto as, with the improvement expected from Long Run, that should produce a thriller. Too many "ifs" for me so not a race to bet on in my opinion.
ive seen this 9.5 seconds slower mentioned on different threads,aint sure if its by you oddy or someone else,but when you just look at standard times and the going without analysising the whole card that day ,you will have no idea really what it means.. to me it didnt look like a crawl,neither was it fast run as well ,but probably sensible pace for the distance the other race on the day (as there were only 2 races run over the mildmay course)the mildmay novices chase over 3m1f and that would also be deemed a crawl as well judging on how much slower they were behind standard also. And in comparison to the maghull chase over 2 miles the next day on the same official going ,that also must of been a crawl as well as even though they ran over 4f shorter and finans rainbow who led and eventually won was seemingly setting a decent pace in that race,they still were slightly behind at the 8th fence(which would have been the 12th in the maghull) compared to the melling chase leader. i dont understand why you have mentioned the sections of masterminded final 2 fences,are you assuming its slow as the novices had to jump 3 extra fences there 4th was the melling chases first and the leader of the melling chase got to halfway (8th) 3 seconds quicker than the novices did for the same section. to clarify, from 2 out to the line QDLR took 36 secs ,finans rainbow took 35.4 and masterminded 34.3 ,and masterminded was strolling to victory easily wheres the other 2 had to be hard driven to win and he did so of a stronger pace than the other 2! mmmmm intersting trying to give a numerical value to it. when kauto star won the 2009 gold cup ,in the very next race cappa bleu won the foxhunters taking 9.35 seconds longer than kauto star. cappa bleu was awarded his first official rating of 148 for that victory and kauto star was given 186 which works out to 38lb difference in form or 9.5 secs which is very close indeed to the time difference of 9.35. now at haydock ,again next race after kauto star,cappa blue was 7.7 secs behind and deemed to of ran to a almost similar mark of 147 so kauto then is 178 (although the handicapper gives him 174) some 7lb-11lb inferior of 2 and a half years ago which is probably about right. now if long run was deemed to of improved by 17lbs from his 1st to 2nd start last year,then if thats replicated this year than he could hit 183 and will surely win it,but even a replica of last years win may be enough and then we need kauto star needing to go well into the 180s ,something he hasnt done since december 2009 and hits mid 170âs these days pretty much most the time where long run as done 179+ twice this year! masterminded is a horse who as hit the 180âs and surely is being built up to hit those again .175 lto when still not fully fit.massive improvement from first time out, given hes steadily building up to peak fitness for his 3rd run than 180+ is achievable again if replicated over the longer trip.
greatpilsudski I was just trying to temper the general enthusiasm around the fact that MM won the Melling Chase and wasn't out on his feet at the end - doesn't in any way mean he can win a King George. He COULD, but it's a leap of faith and trying to use the Melling victory as corroborating evidence that he will stay 3 miles at Grade 1 championship pace is fanciful. I mentioned the time between the 3rd and 2nd last and the last and finish line to try and give an idea of what 9.5 seconds might mean in distance - 30 lengths maybe?
In today's Weekender, Tom Segal says that Master Minded has "absolutely zero chance of winning on Boxing Day". I agree. You have been warned!
That wouldn't happen to be the same Tom Segal whose Christmas tradition has been to select a horse in this race to beat the 4-times winner Kauto Star by any chance
He actually put up Long Run last season . . . Increasingly I am coming to the conclusion that Kauto Star will win on Boxing Day. I have learnt to oppose Mr Segal with caution. He has an uncanny knack of calling things right. To make a statement like that he must be supremely confident.
List of people with potentially red faces on Boxing Day if Master Minded hacks up: Tom Segal Woolcombe Zenyatta Me He cannot win. If anyone wishes to add themselves to the list for official post-race humiliation, just slap your name down.
So that's one out of five for the 'world's best tipster' in the most prestigious mid-season showpiece. Not a great record for him.
