Great news everyone. Seems a few may have been a tad premature in writing off the Champion's season. Seems not to be the case as reported in the Sporting Life website.... http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...=racing/11/12/20/RACING_Festival.html&BID=465 LEOPARDSTOWN BRACED FOR HURRICANE Hurricane Fly remains on target to make his seasonal return over the Festive period as he features among nine preliminary entries for the Istabraq Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown on December 29. The seven-year-old was unbeaten in five starts for Willie Mullins last season, landing the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown. He missed his intended seasonal reappearance at Punchestown last month as the champion trainer was not 100% happy with his charge, but a return to the racecourse appears imminent. In Hurricane Fly's absence, stablemate Thousand Stars took full advantage to land Punchestown's Morgiana Hurdle. He is also a possible runner. Jessica Harrington's Oscars Well, the Dermot Weld-trained Unaccompanied and Voler La Vedette from the Colm Murphy yard are other major contenders in the two-mile affair - although the latter is also engaged in the woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle over three miles 24 hours earlier. There are nine entries for that Grade Two event, with So Young, Mourad and Karabak in the mix. Great news. The Champion's eagerly awaited comeback will no doubt be met by the noise of corks fizzing off champagne bottles the length and breadth of the country as the Christmas festivities reach new heights
Beefy - fingers crossed everything goes well for him. Racing needs superstars like him and it would be tragic if he were unable to get to the top races.
Looks a fantastic renewal of the race. Fancy Moon Dice to run a cracker but can't bet against anything to upset HF so I'll leave it to a watching brief
Absolutely Oddy. One thing I really true to do is savour each and every race these horse run in. I'm thinking of Denman's sudden retirement, Kauto Star isn't going to be around forever, Twist Magic's fateful last run, same for Best Mate. We don't know how lucky we are to see these top jumpers year in year out. That's why us in the NH brigade latch onto our favourites whom we get to see year in year out, tragedys excepted. I really savour every race one of my personal favs run in and think it's something people shouldn't take for granted, what these brave creatures do for our enjoyment. I really hope the Hurricane has another season like last. Last season was the first year Willie had a clean run through we him and, as we all saw, he turned up at every dance and swept all before with contemptious ease...Here's to another season like last ROTO not sure if Moon Dice is up to the standard of this lot, though he was hugely unlucky in the Greatwood as he got a horrendous passage through and was the best horse in the race to my eye. This is without question the best hurdle race to date this year so he'll need to improve bundles to get involved. Should be a great spectacle but I don't think the outcomes in much doubt, even though it is the Champ's first race of the season.
There's already roumers going round, that he isn't going to be ready in time. If the horse is on form then he will win, but I certainly won't be getting involved at a skinny price, as there's no way of trusting his fitness
I still think Unaccompanied can make HF work in the Champion. She found more trouble up the hill in the Triumph than your average Romford Trap 4 railer and I still believe she would have beaten Zarkander with a clear run, and Grandouet back in 3rd has proved the standard of that renewal. And there aren't many horses in the Champion Hurdle reckoning who have a Breeders Cup scalp to their name. I very rarely play ante post but I might just make an exception here though she may have other targets...
Interesting view Grizzly - I backed her in the Triumph and must admit I felt very hard done by. I guess they have a real quandry with her - in the big mares races she will likely meet Quevega or Volar La Vedette () so the Champion Hurdle route may not be a bad idea, particularly if they think Hurricane Fly might not get there.
Oddy - she's 4 year old, proven she acts at the track, proven stamina and already comfortably beaten (despite the traffic problems) the current ante post 2nd fav (assuming Grandouet still is 2nd fav ?), I also think there's still some improvement in her over timber having had just 5 NH starts. The Fly looks a star but we all know how fragile he is and whilst we're all aware of the dreaded 5 year old stat for Champion horses I am not convinced there's a great deal of depth to the field this season, I think she's worth a punt...
Any idea what price she is? My only reservation would be the going - she seems much more effective with plenty of juice in the ground (Grandouet turned the tables on her big time at Punchestown on Good, although the different track may also have played a part). I was thinking she might make a decent Cup horse on the flat? Probably the ground would rule her out of that though? If I remember correctly she is a big, scopey filly - do you think they'll go chasing with her one day?
I wouldn't be getting involved antepost but if he lines up on the day then I think you can be quite sure that Mullins has him where he wants him. There is no point and no need to risk the Champion Hurdler in a Grade 1 race if he isn't ready. Like many others, if he turns up then I think he wins. He goes on any ground so don't see that being a problem. Unaccompanied might be a bit of EW value.
I know Grandouet has franked the form of the Triumph, but Henderson and Geraghty have both said he has improved alot over the summer. I think people could be overreacting with the Triumph hurdle form because of Grandouet, maybe he just wasn't anywere near as good a horse last year as he is this. Just take Nicky Henderson's Oscar Whisky, finishing 4th in the Supreme, behind Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here and Dunguib, and then the following season he improved past them all. These things happen. Going by the record of 5yos and and the fact the Triumph hurdle rarely produces a genuine Champion Hurdle contender, I think last seasons Triumph horse's, are under priced
Oddy - I don't know her price, I will do some searching tonight especially as there already appears some doubt as to the Flys wellbeing. I agree the ground is a factor with her though she has won on a sound surface she is better with cut, a Tuesday Champion Hurdle therefore suits her - which makes last years Triumph run even more impressive given her liking for soft ground - the same day that Long Run broke the Gold Cup course record ! As for chasing I would guess not - she is still a major threat on the flat and could be a high quality duel flat/hurdles horse for a few years to come, she is absolutely genuine so no reason to think she'll fall out of love with the game, if she was mine I'd be reluctant to risk her over the bigger obstacles and get her ready for a Spring NH and early Summer flat campaign. The doubt in my mind is the 5 year old (come March) tag she will have, though she does appear to tick more boxes than mnay 5yo's that have had a Champion Hurdle crack.
Unaccompanied is certainly a talented racemare but looking through various (albeit convoluted) formlines it's somewhat hard to see her dishing out a beating to Hurricane Fly. I agree with the point that the only way she'll be winning the Champion Hurdle is if the Hurricane won't be lining up. In fact I would extend this statement to the entire field.
I think Grandouet is underpriced given that he has shown his hand, which, to my eye at least, looked short of the required level. The thing with Zarkandar is his potential. Nicholls had consistently maintained that he is his No1 Champion hope and the exploits of Rock On Ruby and Brampour have given this view some solid support. He has to prove it himself but if he wins a mickey mouse race easily before the Festival I can't see him being much bigger than 5/1 on the day. Would you be in the Spirit Son camp? To a certain extent I think exactly what I have just said about Zarkandar applies to him too: supposedly Henderson's No1 but needs to show it on the track.
The support for Thousand Stars today as been unreal, Cut 2/1 for the Festival Hurdle. I don't think the Fly will be turning up by the looks of it. Talented to the hilt but very very fragile...
From Twitter: Paddy said: "We just cant lay 'The Fly' while we've seen a lot of dough for Thousand Stars including a large cash bet from a connected punter." All suggests that The Hurricane is not running. It is starting to get a little worrying now. I just hope he's OK because it would be a travesty if he was unable to defend his crown in March.
Paddy Power have suspended betting on the Istabraq Hurdle. On Betfair Thousand Stars is now favourite at 2.04 with Hurricane Fly out to 2.3 - it is not looking good
It'd be nice of Willie Mullins to come out and tell people whats going off, There are some trainers that are very open about the matter and others that seem to leave punters and racing fans hanging on. I echo your comments Oddy, I really hope he is ok and nothing that will keep him from Cheltenham in March...
Agree. I'm very disappointed by this lack of transparency, he could have added a caveat to say it's 50/50 whether we run or not but it seems he's left punters out to dry. Personally I do think the exchanges tend to 'over-react' to scaremongering stories, which this may be. Plus I wouldn't hang on every word Patrick Power comes out with either In a nut shell I think it's more slightly likely we'll see him than not if I'm honest. If not, Mullins better have some information regarding his well-being. If he misses this race, there's 4 weeks till the Irish Champion. If he ain't fit for that, we're really in the dark regards Cheltenham. Though the one thing I would say in Mullins favour if he runs him he will win (i.e. even first time out at Cheltenham al a Quevega). By the way that feat would surely knock all stat and trends to Timbucktoo and back again!
