I commented earlier on masterminded being a French bred and typically these horses peak early and burn out by 8/9 years old in my opinion , looking at masterminded profile he peaked at 5/6 yo and Nicholls is still trying to recapture his best form , he looks a non stayer to me the way he finishes 2m4 races, but I got a bit of stick as I fancied kauto as a e/w bet to nothing in the KG , to me even tho they are both French bred kauto has always been considered top dog in the yard even against Denman , masterminded 3 Rd and big buck 4th so I believe for his whole career kauto has had his races plotted with consideration for longeivity being the aim , which has allowed us to enjoy his talent for this long , at Kempton with ruby aboard and fit this horse a match for any horse and last year I think he wasn't right and without ruby and still ran a decent race so even at 11 going on 12 I think long run will have to be 100% and his jumping will have to be spot on ( a rarity ) to beat the king . Hope this explains what I got criticized for b4
All of a sudden Nichols is quoted as saying that kauto is his main chance at the KG when 4 weeks ago masterminded was his only runner and was being trained to the minute for boxing day , now kautos well Nichols and ruby know he's there no1
That was the impression I got too. I just can't be having Master Minded for the King George at all. it really does seem to me that Nicholls et al were trying to convince themselves that he was a suitable candidate because they didn't have anything else to run and he didn't have anything else to run in. Now Kauto has popped back on the scene their tune has changed considerably. P.S. Master Minded will almost certainly win hard on the steel by 10 lengths now!
i'm in the not sure MM will get all the way round without fading camp, from a general feeling of unease that he's not as consistent as he used to be, and the distance is an unknown. on the plus side, he is youngish, an accurate jumper and has never fallen over here, and reportedly he has been trained for the race. even if Paul Nicholls now says KS is their main chance, MM might spring a surprise of his own accord. I said to people before the betfair about Kauto 'i don't think he'll win but we'll see', and he proved me wrong, so maybe I can put the same erroneous judgement on Master Minded and say i don't think he'll win but we'll see. I'd love to see him close to the front though and jumping like he used to, but looking forward to seeing him race again at any rate. he's always been enjoyable to watch when he's good.
I think you are all being incredibly naive, so what if Nicholls is claiming KS is his number 1, and so what if Clive Smith and Ruby Walsh are claiming the same. This is a horse that has won the race 4 times before, so ofcourse they are going to side with him as there "main hope" In 2008 Kauto Star was the reigning Gold Cup winner and Nicholls number 1 horse, yet his stablemate Denman put up arguably the greatest performance since Arkle's day to defeat Kauto Star. Just for example if you were a trainer, and you had a horse who was one of the best around, for example he had won the last 2 renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and had won every single race that mattered, and then a young pretender turned up in your yard, a horse that deep down you know could be better than your champion, would you advise your number 1 jockey to get off the Champ? Or would you publicly state he was your best hope? Ofcourse you bloody well wouldn't, if you had a horse that had won 2 renewals of the Gold Cup, as a trainer you would adore that horse, and even through blind hero worship alone you would believe and want him to beat the younger pretender. Do you people see what I'm getting at, don't write off Master Minded, just because he is considered the 2nd string
Do you actually fancy Master Minded to win the King George Shergs? I'm curious because a couple of my mates do and I cannot for the life of me understand why!
The reason I'm writing masterminded off is with the exception of Aintree last season to my mind he's barely got 2m4 hence y somersby has made up ground on him and got so close to him in the past when masterminded has had the race won over 3 miles of a truely run race which the king George definately will be I see somersby out staying masterminded and reversing the places and I don't expect somersby to get in the 1st 3 so by default can't have masterminded to compete the finish whereas kauto is have in the 1st 3 as odds on
...and that exception at aintree was a fully fit/wound up masterminded.the 2 runs this year he hasnt been fully fit,not even his 2nd start as his fitness is being built up to peak on boxing day ,so what you saw was not a horse barley getting the trip,but not having the fitness to put somersby to bed much earlier
I think Master Minded brings great jumping and genuine class to the race. I think he is well worth a try at the trip. Usually when he gets beaten, he is beaten some way out, when stamina cannot be an issue. At his very best he travela superbly on the bit and has his rivals at it. If he is at his very best on Boxing Day, I think he will be bang there. For me, if he travels strongly around the first circuit then he will be there at the finish. You usually know early on in a race what sort of form he is in. Needs to bring his quick jumping. But that is my opinion and if you want to back horses on solid evidence, then Master Minded at 3m wont be your cup of tea. He would be another wonderful addition to the staying chase division, but just because there are question marks doesnt mean he wont have the answers. I think you will see Long Run, hopefully Kauto provided he has come out of the Betfair well, Master Minded and Diamond Harry all travelling best, and then Somersby running on. Then the stamina questions will be answered in the final 4 or 5 fences.
Just read this entire thread....a truly great read....thanks everyone. I don't think I've looked forward to a King George as much as I'm looking forward to this one. I have every confidence in Kauto and Ruby that they will win this in spectacular style! I can't believe that I was one of those who thought Kauto should have been retired after last years Gold Cup...I was wrong. I think Master Minded will run a blinder, too. Can we have one of these threads on Grand Crus and/or Great Endeavour, please?
It is good to have a debate and see the different angles you are all coming from. I liked your point about the Melling, Oddy, where the time was 9 seconds slower than standard on good ground, and therefore you are right to question the stamina. Makes us realise that you can't really have the Melling as evidence for Stamina, but I think what you can take from it is that at his best, he really will serve it up to them My personal hunch is that Master Minded on his A-Game would get into a rhythm and just keep galloping and jumping. I think if he gets into a good rhythm he can make the frame. I just hope Nicholls is right and that he will be at his best for Kempton, along with his great stablemate. The Betfair chase is an interesting thing to analyse. Do any of you with a good eye for Paddock-watching and a gauge of a horses fitness think that Long Run was in good/bad shape at Haydock? He looked to be travelling very well in between fences but came a bit unstuck with his jumping. Obviously we know Kauto was fully prepared so they knew if he still had what it takes to race at this level. To my eye, and I must stress that I'm not really educated on equine fitness or shape, it looked as if Long Run was a much, much bigger horse this year. I mean seriously, it was as if he'd gone from Kauto Star-nimble, astute- to Denman- stronger and heavier. Does anyone think that this might have impacted his jumping?
Many thanks Epona, and welcome to the series Grands Crus is high on my agenda but we had quite a large thread on his chase debut, but yes he will undoubtedly be discussed Pre-Cheltenham. We are mainly awaiting the return of the top hurdlers for debate, as we have focussed on chasers so far. But undoubtedly from January onwards there will be a mountain of hurdle discussion.
I made the monumental mistake of not going to Haydock. One of the very worst decisions I have had the misfortune to make. However, the general consensus seems to be that Long Run was fit. He would undoubtedly come on for the run, as you would expect, but talk of him being half fit is fanciful. To my eye he was beaten long before fitness became a concern. I appreciate that he might benefit from the 'match practice' but I actually thought his jumping was fair. He did make a couple of mistakes down the back but in the main he was very good. Rather than fitness or jumping he just looked a bit done for toe. Kauto really quickened the pace down the back straight and everything, including Long Run, was having to really work to stick with him. This leads in to the second point, which I think this is an interesting one. Everybody, Nicky Henderson included, seem to think that he has grown and filled out significantly over the summer. It is perhaps the case that he is, as you suggest, more in the Denman mould, and therefore now requires a sterner test of stamina. He is certainly not the fleet footed athlete that is Kauto Star. I am not saying for a minute that he won't win the KG but given his last two races I do think he is worth taking on at the prices. He has looked tapped for toe on more than one occasion and with Kauto, Master Minded and Captain Chris in the field there are 3 Grade 1 winners at the minimum trip. Then again if they were to cut each others throats then it might play into his hands. It's difficult to say but I just get the feeling he might be finding it hard to stick with them rounding the home turn. Do you still have a foot in the Captain Chris camp TopClass? I think you said you thought he had a squeak. The ground is currently good, good to soft in places but is expected to ease to good to soft on the day. I would think that would be fine, and probably ideal for all contenders really.
Zen yes I firmly have a foot in the Captain Chris camp. He is the one that has quietly slipped under the radar. I thought his unseat was very unlucky on reappearance and he has been a good jumper all his career. I expect both Captain Chris and Somersby to benefit from the stamina emphasis, but I think the ground will be the difference between the two. Id love Somersby to get some soft ground, whereas I think the quicker they go the better Captain Chris is. We have an Arkle winner, an Arkle runner up, and a dual Champion Chaser stepping up and I think its made this the most exciting King George I can remember. Im covering both Somersby and Captain Chris as I have been waiting to see them try 3m for ages. I would give them up though to see Kauto win a 5th King George.
I think all this talk of Long Run filling out and becoming more of a grinder is something I cant agree with simply because I feel he was like that last season. The King George was very much a two horse race in that if either of the fav or 2nd fav turned up they would have too much class for all but each other. As it was only one turned up and he won easily, but KS couldn't even run in 2nd which indicates he was far from his best that day. Then you go on to Cheltenham and the extra distance and the hill at the end played right into Long Run's hands imho. He looked beat as they came to the final corner in the GC, SWC had drawn the whip early on his mount and he looked very outpaced at one stage. But as the two paul nicholls trained beasts started to tire -Kauto more so, Long Run came back at them and won going away, down to his ability to stay and not his turn of foot. Haydock this year and back to 3miles and Long Run probably isn't 100%. He's not unfit as such but he probably needs the run as this has never been the number one target unlike Kauto. Other horses in the race are definately 100% fit and are still well held by Long Run. It's such an interesting clash I feel because KS is entitled to run a lot better that last year and LR is entitled to run better than LTO. At Cheltenham I think there's too much in Long Run's favour but over a flat 3 miles it could potentially be a very tough one to call given the way Kauto won at Haydock. As for Masterminded and whether he'll stay I don't really have much to offer because there's not a lot to go on. He's been winning over a step up in distance but the form's not that strong I guess. This is yet further so obviously there will be doubters. I don't know, I just don't know and the truth is none of us here do for sure. It'll be interesting to watch. My inkling is that he won't win, not neccessarily because he doesn't stay the trip as such but more because he's a) been overrated a little bit and b) he's not as good as he once was. He doesn't get 2 miles as quick as he once did and my guess is that he doesn't get 3 miles as quick as he once would have either.
I think this is what makes this year's renewal so intriguing. Of the 'Big 4': Long Run is the young staying chaser, Kauto is the older stayer, Master Minded the older 2miler stepping up and Captain Chris the younger horse stepping up. All generations from all distances represented. There can't have been many 3m chases run where the protagonists have no less than 11 Grade 1 wins at around 2m between them! This is what makes me think Long Run might be vulnerable, given that there are so many speed horses in the race, something which he is not. It really is fascinating.
I also have a foot - cautiously - in the Captain Chris camp. He finishes races so well over shorter trips that I really can't help but think he'll go on to look really really good over the longer distances. I think, although it's safe to say that the King George will provide some big pointers, that at this stage Long Run is a nailed on 2012 Gold Cup winner... but Kempton is a different kettle of fish. I don't think that Somersby has the class to beat this field, but that leaves Kauto, Long Run, Captain Chris (and I've said before, I don't think Master Minded will stay.... but I'm getting scared to say it just in case!). Fantastic race and I can't wait - although I'm going to be at the footy on boxing day so will undoubtably find out the result before I can watch the race! =S! No-one has mentionned Golan Way - I don't think he could keep up with this field, but the racing post website poll thinks that more readers think he can win than either Captain Chris or Master Minded (13% to 7% and 11% respectively) - what does everyone think? Also, to pose another question - where does everyone think Master Minded will be headed at Cheltenham?
