Given the number of qualifiers throughout the season and my interest in the race for many years, I thought it worth creating a thread now to cover all the qualifiers for the 2026 final, monitor those horses who have qualified and try to spot the winner of what is a fiendishly difficult race to predict. Firstly the basics. The Final is held on the Thursday of the Cheltenham Festival (so Thursday 12th March 2026) and is currently scheduled to start as the penultimate race on the card at 16:40. This represents a new starting time, with the race having previously been run earlier in the day (usually 2nd or 3rd race on the card). The race is a handicap hurdle over an official distance of 2 miles 7 furlongs and 113 yard or - as near as damn it - 3 miles. The qualifiers are generally also over approximately 3 miles (albeit Kempton's race is markedly shorter at around 2m 5f) and are also handicap hurdles. Qualifiers This season there are a 20 qualifiying races ahead of the final, with 3 in France (Auteuil, Cagnes sur Mer and Pau), 3 in Ireland (Punchestown, Leopardstown and Naas) and the balance in the UK. Not all dates are yet finalised but the latest information on schedules can be found on the Jockey Club website HERE. The first 4 home in each qualifying race qualify for the final but connections must be mindful of the fact that there is a maximum field size of 24 runners. The winner of each qualifier is, however, guaranteed a starting place as long as they are within the required weight range of the race at final declarations. Simply put, the horse must be rated within 2 stone of the top weight in the handicap. Generally speaking, a rating of 135 should definitely be high enough to get a run, anything below that could be risky. As an example, the 2025 winner Doddiethegreat, won off a mark of 131 and was number 19 on the racecard. Top weight was Thomas Mor off 143 (pretty low for top weight in the race, statistically) and the bottom weight (number 24 of 24 runners) was American Sniper off a mark of 124. Trends There are a number of important trends around the final and these are taken from thestatsdontlie.com and become more relevant as we approach final declarations: Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8 Price – 2 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 7/12 winners were priced 10/1 or bigger Weights – 8/12 winners carried 11st 4lbs or less Last Run – 3/12 winners won on their last run before the Pertemps Final, 11/12 winners had their last run with the last 61 days 6/12 winners ran in a Pertemps Qualifier on their last run, 1 of the 6 won, 2 placed Previous Course Form – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 6/12 winners had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 7 previous runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles Rating – 8/12 winners were rated between 134 and 146 Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win that season I'll post a new comment for each qualifying race.
Qualifier #1 - Cheltenham - Saturday 25th October 2025 Yes, we've already had the first qualifier and here is the result with horses name, trainer, winning mark and revised mark: 1. Ma Shantou (Emma Lavelle, 130 now 138) 2. Electric Mason (Chris Gordon, 128 now 132) 3. Supremely West (Dan Skelton, 137 now 138) 4. Long Draw (Olly Murphy, 138 now 138) Firstly it is worth pointing out this qualifier was on the old track whereas the final is run on the new course. Ma Shantou was a well-backed favourite based on his 7th place finish in last seasons Albert Bartlett. I think connections will be disappointed if he doesn't progress beyond his allotted 138 and he holds an entry in a valuable premier handicap at Haydock in a couple of weeks. If he takes up that entry than I think it likely they will go pot hunting with him, rather than trying to get him on the final off an attractive mark. Let's see what happens with him over the coming weeks. Second-placed Electric Mason also ran at the 2025 festival, finishing midfield in the Martin Pipe and he clearly thrived on his first try at 3 miles. It will be interesting to see where they go next with him, and whether he remains competitive off his new mark. Supremely West is now trained by Cheltenham handicap specialist Dan Skelton (although he has never won the Pertemps Final) and this was a creditable effort on his first run at Cheltenham. He qualified for the 2025 final by finishing 2nd in the Chepstow qualifier for Dr Newland but they chose instead to go to Uttoxeter on Midlands National day where he finished 2nd to Gwennie May Boy. I assume their ambitions will lie elsewhere again this season. Long Draw has very good Cheltenham form (2114) and he could be the one to take out of the race. I will be interested to see what they do with him next but if he turns up at the final on a mark in the low 130-s he could be interesting. Conclusion: It is an awfully long time to the final and this race does not have a good record of providing the winner. Whilst I'll certainly be monitoring the 4 qualified horses as they progress through the season, none of them would be on the short list right now.
Qualifier #2 - Newbury - Thursday 6th November 2025 The Newbury qualifier tomorrow has 11 declared and there are some really interesting runners, none more so than top weight Haiti Couleurs. Rebecca Curtis' runner had a maginficent last season over fences, winning the National Hunt Chase and the Irish National. In all reality though, this is a pipe-opener and, whilst it would be no surprise to see him run well, he surely won't be turning up in the final. East India Express is entered here and in Sunday's qualifier at Aintree and I think that means they are serious about the final as a target for the season. He remaons on a career-high mark of 140 with Freddie Gordon taking off 3 and he would really grab my interest if he were to be "tenderly ridden" for a place. Act Of Authority is also entered at Aintree on Sunday and similar comments apply, although a paddock check is advised as he might need the run. Hititi is a regular in these races (qualified for the last two finals but didn't run) but is inconsistent. Emailandy and Samuel Spade come here on the back of wind surgery whilst Thanksforthehelp is probably the one most likely to sneak into 4th give connections. The one I like for win purposes here is Dan Skelton's Tranquil Sea. The ex Paul Nolan inmate stayed on really powerfully to win at Chepstow and a 6lb rise for that looks fair.
I'm heading to Valencia for a long weekend tomorrow morning so will catch up with the Newbury, Aintree (Saturday) and Kempton (next Monday) qualifiers when I get back. The Aintree race will likely be a small field as a good number of the entries are declared to run at Newbury tomorrow. Impose Toi, Katate Dori and Crebilly look interesting though. Kempton has 12 entries so far with only Impose Toi enered elsewhere as far as I can see.
Just catching up with this thread Oddy. I see the very lovely Rebecca’s Haiti Couleurs did win this qualifier. Could she go down the Pineau De Re route as prep for a Grand National tilt in 2026?
Qualifier #2 - Newbury - Thursday 6th November 2025 1. Haiti Coulours (Rebecca Curtis, 145 now 150) 2. Bill Baxter (Warren Greatrex, 126 now 129) 3. Lihyan (Rebecca Menzies, 124 now 125) 4. Act of Authority (Olly Murphy, 139 now 138) Despite many of the runners making their seasonal reappearances, I think this was a deep contest judging by how far out both East India Express and Tranquil Sea were struggling. Those two were race fit and at the head of the market but couldn't land a blow. Haiti Couleurs won in resolute style, finally getting the better of a prolonged battle with the runner up after the last obstacle. Depending on the ground, he will either go to the Henessey (Coral) Gold Cup or Betfair Chase, with the latter currently looking more likely. Either way, it has to be considered extremely unlikely that he will be entered in the Pertemps Final. Bill Baxter ran a cracker to finish second. He had an easy time of things in front and was only bested by the winner after a bad mistake at the last hurdle. Whilst he is likely to go back over fences, his revised hurdles mark of 129 is 10lbs below his chase rating and that might have connections thinking about a tilt at the final. Lihyan ran a really nice race in 3rd for his 5lb claimer, staying on well and was unlucky to have nowhere to go after the last hurdle. His new mark of 125 looks generous as I think he was fairly tenderly ridden. For me he is the one to take out of the race and I think he will be winning very soon. Act Of Authority ran a similar race to Lihyan but didn't stay on nearly as well and was eased down once 4th place was secured. He probably needed the run after a break but I am still surprised the assessor has dropped him 1lb to 138. Given he finished second in the Martin Pipe back in March, he clearly acts round Cheltenham and he might be one they look to put away until the final. Conclusion: A strong qualifier with a very good winner who will be going back over fences. All 3 placed horses ran nice races and will be worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses as they could well have qualified off handy marks.
If Haiti Coulours doesn't go for the final, does that mean only 3 qualify or does it drop down to the fifth in that race?
Qualifier #3 - Aintree - Saturday 8th November 2025 1. Impose Toi (Nicky Henderson, 148 now 153) 2. Chasing Fire (Olly Murphy, 136 unchanged) 3. The Lord Maid (Stan Sheppard, 132 unchanged) 4. Kyntara (Mel Rowley, 131 unchanged) A stroll in the park for Impose Toi who shot to the head of the betting for the final after an impressive victory. I have no doubt he benefitted from the omitted hurdles (due to low sun) but with his rating now at 153 I think he will be forced into graded races. The 20/1 about him for the Stayers Hurdle is much more interesting than 14/1 for the Pertemps Final. If the ground is not too heavy I could imagine him running in the Long Walk Hurdle next. The other 3 finished in a bit of a heap including the evergreen Kyntara (finished 2nd in the 2024 Pertemps Final off 131) but I wouldn't be rushing to put any of them on the short list right now. The Aintree qualifier has not thrown up the winner of the final for as long as I can remember (possibly never). I remember the very tenderly ridden Icare Allen finishing 3rd in an equally muddling renewal with omitted hurdles in 2023 off a mark of 142 and being put away for the final. Many people (myself included) though he was a good thing and he went off 7/1 but pulled up.
Qualifier #4 - Kempton Park - Monday 10th November 2025 1. Idy Wood (Jamie Snowdon, 127) 2. Eyed (Hughie Morrisson, 120) 3. Below The Radar (Paul Nicholls, 118) 4. Saint Anapolino (Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, 129) I think we can forget this qualifier in terms of the final. Only Eyed has even run over 3 miles in his life and I just don't believe this race over 2m 5f has any bearing on the final. I can't even find the last time the winner of the Kempton qualifier even ran in the final. I'm just going to ignore this one.
