I put a quick analysis of the Arc runners on the Arc thread as I already have my ante post bet on Aventure.
According to Turf Trax the going on the round course is “Soft, Good to Soft in places” and “Good to Soft” on the five furlong straight after 5mm of rain and I take that as being more reliable than the France Galop report using the penetrometer (which they give as 4.1 “très souple” – very soft).
The Arc day card starts with the two Group 1 juvenile events but looking at the betting I cannot see me getting involved in either of them. In the eight runner Prix Marcel Boussac (12.40 BST), Aidan O’Brien’s Diamond Necklace is a short-priced favourite with the British layers after her two wins whilst Christopher Head’s Green Spirit, unbeaten in four, is likely to be favourite on the PMU. In the nine runner Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (1.15), Francis-Henri Graffard’s Rayif looks short enough to retain his unbeaten record in what does not look like a great renewal with the best chance for the UK raiders being Solario winner A Bit Of Spirit, despite that form looking suspect.
There used to be a time when Britain farmed the Prix de l’Abbaye (1.50) but in a year where there appears to be no outstanding sprinter I won’t be getting involved in a race where the British layers make Aussie horse Asfoora favourite in a first time visor despite the dreadful run last time in the Flying Five where three of today’s rivals finished in front.
The Prix de l’Opéra (3.50) has been a nightmare race for me in recent years with my selections only managing places at best since Tarnawa’s victory, with three year olds victorious in 8 of the last 10 runnings. The betting is headed by the two horses with the best form – See The Fire and Tamfana – but both of them are four year olds. This is not the right trip for David Menuisier’s filly (not seen since the Lockinge) and I cannot help but think that Andrew Balding’s filly is not as good as she was last term (beaten a neck in the Nassau in 2024, more than 6 lengths third in 2025) and she has never won on easy ground. The best of the three year olds appears to be Wemightakedlongway, second in the Irish Oaks and hailing from an in-form yard; however, the bookies have factored that in so she makes little betting appeal in what might become a tactical affair.
So for a bet that leaves me with the last of the Group 1s, the Prix de la Forêt (4.25). This has quite an open look to it as plenty appear to have chances but there seem to be question marks against a few of them. There are several that look easy enough to dismiss with Devil’s Point down the field in the Park Stakes (where King’s Gamble was second and Zoum Zoum fourth) and having only won a three runner race in the last two years. Ten Bob Tony was eighth at Doncaster after a long layoff having won the John Of Gaunt but still looks a little behind some of the better ones here. Geography arrives chasing a hat-trick but he is another one that looks a little short of the required level, a remark that also applied to shock Lennox Stakes winner Witness Stand. Foreign raider Zerostress was sixth in this race last year but it is hard to see the nine year old having got any better! Exxtra was two places ahead in fourth and has failed to trouble the judge in three starts this year so it is hard to see him going any closer. What is really needed here is a hold up horse, so Topgear – last in the Jubilee Stakes after winning the Prix du Palais-Royal – does not fit the bill but More Thunder from the William Haggas barn does for a trainer with recent success in the race. He holds King’s Gamble and Witness Stand on Hungerford Stakes running and can be expected to be coming late. Aidan O’Brien’s Exactly has not won this year but has contested five Group 1s, albeit four of them at a mile. In the City Of York Stakes over this trip she was near to the pace and only finished sixth with Maranoa Charlie ahead in fourth; and this does seem more the right trip for Christopher Head’s Prix Jean Prat runner up. Prix de Sandringham winner Godspeed looks up against it dropping to 1400m having raced exclusively at 1600m (a mile) and her eighth in the Pouliches suggests she might not be good enough (Exactly fourth, Zarigana awarded the race). Francis-Henri Graffard has two in the race and hat-trick seeking Roshvar won the Prix du Pin (Exxtra fourth) over course and distance last time and should give a good account but clearly it is Zarigana who will go off favourite under Mickael Barzalona. She has not been seen since blowing the Coronation Stakes (Exactly sixth) and she is also dropping to 1400m for the first time since her debut victory. With so much interwoven form here this looks like being a tactical race. The one I am going for is Andre Fabre’s SAJIR, winner of three from four this term, collecting the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time at Deauville, turning over Lazzat with Topgear fifth. He won on his seasonal bow so the eight week layoff since is not a concern and Oisin Murphy clearly knows the horse well.
