David Ord is going for DARYZ and GIAVELLOTTO. https://www.sportinglife.com/racing...-de-troimphe-tips-horse-by-horse-guide/227872
I think, at this point, I'm contractually obliged (my forum stipend could be at risk if I don't) to put up the trends / stats for this race. So here are the ones that I've got listed - No horse since Star Appeal, in 1975, has won The Arc in the same season as running in a handicap (he was beaten, on his seasonal bow, at Cologne). Japanese trained runners are 0/33 in the race. Since 1991 only 1 Arc winner was having its first run at the trip - 1/30 since 1991. 18 of the last 22 winners of the race had run between 21 and 29 days prior to the Arc. 16 of the last 19 winners of the Arc, run at Longchamp, broke from a single figure draw - 14 of these were no wider than stall 6. No St Leger winner has ever won the Arc in the same season - 0/10 so far this century (formline -5070040735). 7 out of the last 9 winners of the Arc had Urban Sea in their pedigree. Only 1 horse has won the Prix du Jockey Club and then gone on to win the Arc, in their 3YO season, since 2004. No 6YO has ever won the Arc. Aidan O'Brien is 2/58 in the race. The last Arc scorer with winning form over 14 furlongs, or beyond, was Gold River in 1981. Andre Fabre has trained the winner of the Arc 8 times since 1987. Just 1 out of the last 5 winners of the Arc ran, at Longchamp, on Arc Trials Day. Fillies and mares have won 10 out of the last 17 runnings of the race. A quick couple of points to bear in mind re the above - (i) obviously, there is no reigning St Leger champ going this year and (ii) Arc trials day has now been slightly moved in the calendar. But which ones will be enhanced in '25 and which will fall by the old wayside??? That's the great conundrum for punters to unravel and predict.
Interesting. It's amazing how many can have a case made for them. I've not even looked at those 2 so that's another 2 to look at. I wonder how many others I haven't looked at are in with a good chance I think I'm coming to the conclusion that this is now a no bet race. With the ground looking to be relatively fast, I just wish Regaleira was in the field Will still be a must watch race. Will we be able to call the winner 2f out? I doubt it.
Surprised the number of 5yo mares hasn't cropped up Barney Interesting about Urban Sea. Were there any qualifiers in the other 2 years and are there any this year (sorry, being lazy i know)
Right. For the sake of interest while watching the race I have plumped for the following 10 points win Aventure (9/2 available) and Minnie Hauk at 4/1 general 1 point place Los Angeles and Quisisana both available at 33/1 That's it
As expected, one horse was supplemented Wednesday morning, Minnie Hauk, so there will be a field of eighteen or fewer on Sunday. According to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities rankings, Byzantine Dream is rated 121, Croix Du Nord is rated 120 and Alohi Alii must be rated 119 or lower as the World’s Best Horse rankings stop at 120. The top rated entry remaining in the Arc is Los Angeles on 123 (Ballydoyle’s original intended runner). The current top rated horse in the world is Ombudsman (128) followed by Field Of Gold (127) joint with Japanese horse Forever Young and Godolphin’s American star Sovereignty. Note that these rankings were last updated on 7th September so will not reflect races run since that date.
I cant have the Japanese horses at all, I think if theyre going to win it they will need to come with one of their real superstars like Almond Eye or Equinox, none of their runners this year are in that top tier. Croix Du Nord has a good CV, winning the Hopeful, 2nd in the Guineas and winning the Derby but not sure how strong the crop is, theres only been a couple of lengths between 4 or 5 horses and as far as im aware, none of them have stepped up to win in open company yet. And now weve seen him over here scraping in a pretty weak G3 I cant see him being good enough. Cant have Minnie Hauk either, she looks a one paced grinder to me, and her form doesnt look great, she was off the bridle and going nowhere 3 out in a very poor Irish Oaks, it wasnt an Enable performance, she had a perfect setup in York with her pacemaker making sure it was an end to end gallop, also think Whirl ought to have won the Oaks if she was ridden on merit. Shes good but better Oaks winners than her have come up short in the Arc and I just dont think shes the right type. Kalpana is a bit of a dog, she came there cantering all over Whirl in the Pretty Polly and downed tools, same thing again at Kempton, she has the ability to run top 4 or 5 but I struggle to see how she can possibly be the one finishing best in a competitive field like this, I think shed be better off in the Prix De Lopera or Fillies and Mares at Ascot. Aventure is a standout for me, she has everything you want in an Arc horse, travels and quickens, and her form in the Arc and Vermielle last year sets the standard imo, she looks a stronger filly now, and I think she will take some beating from any draw. Gezora 16/1 and Quisisana 33/1 look overpriced for Graffard.
Yep the % win success for 5YO mares is going to be low with only 2 ever obliging (1937 and 2022). I haven't got the figure for the number that have run in the race, over the years, but its going to be a sizeable number. In fact if you say 'since 1938' then you are looking at just 1 winner from quite some number of runners. In '25 the horses with Urban Sea are, by my reckoning, Giavellotta, Aventure, Minnie Hauk, Sosie, Daryz, Estrange, Quisisana, White Birch and Arrow Eagle (9). It will be quite something it one of these on this list wins, this term, as that will take the old girl to 80% over the past decade. The unveiling of the draw the next key ingredient - who will get the lowest 6 stalls?!?
We know the theory about the draw for the Arc, so what can we glean from the field if viewed in draw order and the latest odds: 1 Minnie Hauk (Christophe Soumillon) 4/1 2 Daryz (Mickael Barzalona) 14/1 3 Sosie (Stephane Pasquier) 12/1 4 Alohi Alii (Christophe Lemaire) 18/1 5 Giavellotto (Andrea Atzeni) 40/1 6 Leffard (Cristian Demuro) 50/1 7 Quisisana (Alexis Pouchin) 33/1 8 Cualificar (William Buick) 14/1 9 White Birch (Dylan Browne McMonagle) 40/1 10 Kalpana (Colin Keane) 10/1 11 Hotazhell (Shane Foley) 100/1 12 Aventure (Maxime Guyon) 9/2 13 Gezora (Tom Marquand) 16/1 14 Los Angeles (Wayne Lordan) 33/1 15 Byzantine Dream (Oisin Murphy) 11/1 16 Arrow Eagle (Ioritz Mendizabal) 100/1 17 Croix Du Nord (Yuichi Kitamura) 12/1 18 Estrange (Danny Tudhope) 16/1 That looks terminal for a couple of the Japanese runners with them being out in the forest; and is the one draw good news for the Oaks winner? It will depend on what tactics Soumillon has in mind. Interesting that Maxime Guyon has stuck with Aventure rather than Sosie, although I am not sure whether the jockeys are declared before the draw is made or after it; however, I like to think that he picked the one that he thought had the better chance. I wonder what William Buick will do tactically as he has three unfancied (in betting terms) horses on his inside.
