Saturday's Meetings Glorious Goodwood Flat 7 Races 1:20-4:55p.m. Thirsk Flat 8 Races 1:38-5:50p.m. Doncaster Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:20p.m. Galway Festival Mixed 8 Races 2:02-6:05p.m. Newmarket Flat 6 Races 2:10-5:05p.m Lungfield(E) Flat 6 Races 5:10-8:15p.m. Hamilton(E) Flat 7 Races 5:55-9:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
I'll be making a small investment on Corinth in the 4.20 at Goodwood and trust that Mr Keane does a bit better.
Some serious questions need to be asked about the going reports at Inglorious Goodwood since Thursday. It started off Good/Good to Firm in places. Then it obviously rained more substantially between the 2.30 and the 3.05 and for the rest of the afternoon the going was reported as Heavy. On Friday the going for the first race had dried out to Soft/Good to Soft in places, a going report that persisted until the 3.05 when it was changed to Good to Soft/Soft in places. By the last race it was just Good to Soft. On Saturday morning it is Good to Soft/Good in places. Any chance of rain this afternoon? I can start by scratching Inglorious Goodwood with its fake going reports. There are two ‘Northern’ meetings this afternoon at Thirsk and Doncaster, neither of which I think I would bother going to if I lived across the street from the course. Thirsk’s eight race card features a Class 2 and a Class 3 sponsored by a bookie, three Class 4 events, a Class 5 race and two divisions of a Class 6 handicap. Doncaster’s card – sponsored by Unison – features a Class 4 handicap (9 runners), three Class 5 races (3, 7 and 12 runners) and three Class 6 races (7, 14 and 7 runners). Obviously someone has decided that on the first day of the EFL season they can put this midweek sort of dross on a Saturday as nobody will be going – even if the union members have been given discounted/free tickets since their membership dues have been blown on a corporate beano. Surely the union should be buying Thurles racecourse as a property investment – they can build a conference centre there. So that leaves me with a(nother) disappointing card at HQ. Only six races, several single digit fields that inspire little interest; and a scarcity of useful form in the two races worth examining. The 10 runner handicap at 4.00 looks easy enough to ignore. Timeform top rated Roman Centurion is joint top weight in a three year old handicap but drops a furlong after finishing fourth in an a six runner mile handicap at Ascot when last seen. The third Sea Force hardly did much for that form on Thursday. I think I would rather go with George Margarson’s Dapper Guest, a course and distance winner that was fourth at this trip when last seen at Ascot and receives 9lb from the favourite. The Fillies and Mares Listed race (3.20) sees three 3yos take on their elders. It is difficult to make a case for handicap winner Crystal Flyer, last in a York Group 3 (Jane Temple two places ahead) and second last in a handicap (beaten more than 14 lengths) on her last two starts. Since that York Group 3, Jane Temple has been last in a Pontefract Listed race (Karmology second, Meribella third) and more than six lengths third in a course and distance Listed race. Three year old Bowerchalke has never won on turf and her handicap win on the Southwell kitty litter followed a never-threatening seventh in a Listed race at Goodwood. Star Of Light made all under today’s pilot to win a Newbury handicap over further last time and presumably the same tactic will be employed here. Silent Love appears to be favourite this afternoon on the basis of a good performance against the clock in a maiden on the Kempton kitty litter and steps up a couple of furlongs after a seven week break. I do not like kitty litter form on turf and her two previous races on turf both resulted in third places in maidens over two furlongs less. The Timeform top rated is Italian import Sioux Life, dropping in class after running in the Group 2 Middleton (second last, Karmology two places ahead) and the Group 3 Pinnacle (third last, a neck behind Beautiful Love). So that leaves Karmology and Meribella. After fifth in the Middleton, Karl Burke’s mare was second at Pontefract (with Meribella three and a half lengths third) but then failed to land the odds in a Beverley Listed race, easily beaten by Candleford (third in the Goodwood opener). Ralph Beckett’s filly has not been seen since Pontefract and was third in a Goodwood handicap prior to that won easily by Santorini Star. As I can make a case for both of them and I only back one horse per race, I will just leave it.
I got an email from The Jockey Club this morning urging me to sign a petition to save the online bookies from a tax increase being proposed that would go up from 15% to 21%. I have no idea why I should be bothered. If the over-round on horseracing has to be increased in order to pay more tax that will make gambling less attractive, bettors will simply stop betting on it, the bookmakers’ turnover will fall, the tax take will decline and everyone will lose out. It is a self fulfilling prophesy, which Rachel from Accounts does not understand because she is ideologically a Big State Communist. They can use the land for wind turbines, solar panels and building millions more houses... Do they not realise that there are no working people in horse racing?
Stewards Cup Annual Suicide Mission Completely Random 11/1 Improved a stone since being gelded, not many miles on the clock. Better off now with some of the principles and ran well in the Wokingham when 5th. My donation to those poor, cash starved bookie chaps to keep horse racing alive.
Completely random ran well enough in eighth place but never looked like getting into the places. I read last night in a supposedly professional article, where the tipster selected, very daringly, Hammer The Hammer, the then hot favourite. Commenting on the horse's draw in box 4 he said he felt low numbers would be favoured. That got me thinking back to last year and I seemed to remember it being all high drawn horses that filled the places. Checked my fellow's draw and sure enough he was in Trap 1. You don't want to change a selection though and it ended up 21,25,18 and 19 draws that filled the first 4 home today. Kevin Ryan has never been a trainer that gave me many winners and his horses running to form figure for the past fortnight according to Racing Post data is a lowly 37% so 9/2 was rank bad value in such a race. The Stewards Cup today had a betting book with an over-round of 52% which is an utter disgrace. Long gone are the days where we would see a Lincoln Handicap with a 10/1 favourite (It won too). Today's Stewards Cup had runners priced 9/2, 11/2, 15/2, 8/1, 8/1, 9/1 and 10/1 that equates to nearly 77% of the book in just 7 runners and there are still another 20 runners in the field to allow for. To make an honest 100% book on the race with the remaining runners they would need to average odds of 86/1 to arrive at the 100%. Bookies of course need to leave themselves a profit margin but it used to be deemed a 10% on average. This is taking the eyes out of punters and the Racing Media should be taking them to task instead of wittering on the usual sycophantic rubbish. Sign a petition? Where can I buy a Save Our Parasites poster?
As Grendel stated, the numbers are shocking and they get worse in the big field handicaps. Part of the reason is the each way betting. Under Tattersalls rules, bookmakers are mandated to pay four places at a quarter the odds in handicaps with sixteen or more runners as a minimum. Almost all of the layers now offer loads of extra places but at the same time they reduce the place fraction to a fifth or a sixth the odds. In doing so, they create the potential for having to pay out loads of winning bets on ‘placed’ horses. So what they do is reduce the win odds of the fancied horses so that people backing them each way will ‘win’ next to nothing or lose money if they place. Also, some of the outsiders that might once have been 25/1 in a win book will only be 16/1 in an each way book. In the Stewards’ Cup, the over round percentage on the SP was 154% and the first six in the betting were single figure prices from a field of 27. Goodwood 3.45: 16 runners (4 non-runners) it was 150%, first four single figure prices. Goodwood 4.55: 16 runners (2 non-runners) it was 148%, first five single figure prices. Goodwood 1.55: 14 runners (no non-runners) it was only 125%, first five single figure prices. Thirsk 3.25: 14 runners (no non-runners) it was only 128%, half the field single figure prices. Another part of the reason for over rounds rising generally (it was 114% in the eight runner listed race at HQ) is the changes to the tax system, with bookmakers now charged 15% on profits whereas originally it was 10%/9% on turnover (remember the days when you could pay the tax up front or have it deducted from your winnings?). The government is looking at raising the duty level to 21%, harmonising with the online gaming rate.
