Danon Decile will not like it soft right enough Ron. That is a pity they won't face off for a third time as I was confident the Colt would improve past her this year. I was right about Sosie blotting his copy book in the Eclipse and said ages ago that he need not bother coming over for the Eclipse. Wrong race and wrong trip for him, he must have been showing Andre Fabre something he has never show at the track. Fabre is not the trainer he used to be when raiding these shores. You could set your watch by him in the 90s but success is few and far between for him here now. I had nominated Frances Graffard several years ago as the trainer who would rule French Racing in the future and I think we are getting close to that point now. Fabre and Rouget are getting old and/or unwell now and trainers such as Alex Pantall, who had the biggest stable in France at one time don't seem to have much joy at the top level. The race betting is messy to say the least, 14/1 the Field as I had expected with Sosie's demise and some stinking value. John Gosden said Ombudsman was done for stamina today, so why the hell is he Co Fav for a 2 furlong further race in October? Field Of Gold at 20/1, come off it. He won't be running. Lake Victoria 16/1? she won't get that trip in a horse box. Arm up the back and I would go with Lambourn. O'Brien has run worse horses than him in the race and he seems likely to get conditions to suit, can make his own running and the Lads are unlikely to see a field as messed up, mediocre and confused as this in many a year. Sosie already backed 20/1 Lambourn second dart at 16/1
Still got Aventure, Los Angeles and Jan Brughel going for me Obviously Regaleira would have pissed it
It is difficult to know what to make of the changes to the Arc betting following Saturday’s action. Clearly the bookmaker chappies have over-reacted to Sosie’s effort over ten furlongs at Sandown and the soppy excuse given by the jockey about the horse not handling the track. Last year’s Arc fourth, previously winner of the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance, is now out to 16/1. That means that Minnie Hauk has inherited favouritism at 14/1 along with stable companion Whirl and the mug bet Ombudsman (almost certain to not be in Paris on the first weekend in October). Kalpana had already been pushed out to 16/1 after defeat by Whirl over ten furlongs. Daryz, Jan Brueghel and Lambourn are all available at 16/1. My pick Aventure is still available at 20/1 along with Delacroix. Despite winning the Lancashire Oaks, Estrange is out to 25/1 and that is probably a fair reflection of her chances at the moment (hard ridden to beat a 107 rated mare). If she heads for the Yorkshire Oaks she would need to win it to be considered a realistic contender. I cannot recall the betting ever having been this open in the first week of July. Usually by now there would be a clear favourite from one of the English/French/Irish Classics or there would be one of the older horses that had sidestepped the Arc as a three year old. What is no surprise is that five of the first ten in the betting are stabled at Ballydoyle so the bookies know at least three of them are unlikely to be in the field on 5th October and Ryan Moore can only be on one.
With Calandagan ineligible for the Arc, little surprise that his closest rival at Ascot, Kalpana, has taken over the mantle of favouritism at around 8/1. Jan Brueghel is now out to 33/1, the same odds as Grand Prix de Paris winner Leffard. If the plan for Aidan O’Brien’s St Leger winner is the Arc then the Prix Foy on the Arc Trials day card looks the obvious stepping stone.
Little has been happening on the Arc front lately with two fillies shortening to vie for favouritism, Kalpana and Whirl, thanks to their efforts in big races. Los Angeles being trained for Arc de Triomphe This headline does not seem to have had a huge impact on the market, with O’Brien stating that Los Angeles will probably go to the Royal Whip and then either the Prix Foy or the Irish Champion Stakes before October. That probably pours a lot of cold water on Jan Brueghel supporters. Los Angeles can still be backed at 20/1 and Jan Brueghel is generally 33/1. Does that also mean that Lambourn and Scandinavia will be heading to Town Moor after next week’s Great Voltigeur? Lambourn is a 16/1 chance for Longchamp and Scandinavia is not in any lists. Prix Du Jockey Club winner Camille Pissarro has been retired due to injury. He managed to make more than a million in total prize money even though he only won three of his eleven career starts. That is how much his two Group 1s in France were worth given that his debut win at Navan was worth €10,800. At the time of writing, one layer was still going 25/1 for the Arc if you really want to empty your wallet.
I see Regaleira is still quoted although I read a while back that she will miss the Arc having got a knock in her last race
Saturday’s racing at Deauville threw up a couple of results that probably clouded the Arc picture more than helping it. The ‘official’ France Galop going at Deauville was reported as ‘Soft’ but that really should be taken with a pinch of salt. Most of the card was run on the kitty litter with the pattern races on the turf that looked quicker than good to soft would be given as here. The opening four-runner Group 3 Prix Gontaut-Biron saw one race wonder Goliath overturned by Andre Fabre’s First Look, easy winner of a Clairefontaine Listed race on his previous start. First Look had run Map Of Stars close in the Prix Exbury back in March but as both he and Goliath are geldings neither are eligible for the Arc. The five-runner Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano was won by the three year old Japanese contender Alohi Alii, ridden by Christophe Lemaire, thrashing Brian Meehan’s Rashabar and Andre Fabre’s Cualificar – second in the Prix Du Jockey Club on his previous start. I expect that the Fabre colt may next be seen in the Prix Niel if the Arc is still on his agenda. From the perspective of the Arc betting, the obvious change was Alohi Alii jumping into the betting at 25/1 whilst, unsurprisingly, Cualificar drifted out to 66/1. All those bookies that have gelding Pride Of Arras in the betting at 100/1 clearly are unaware of the fact that he lost some parts of his anatomy that males are required to bring along on Arc Sunday still attached to their undercarriage.
Is Ace Impact's half-brother (the 4YO Arrow Eagle, by Gleneagles) deserving of being considered a rank outsider at 66/1??? He's won his last 4 races - including a Group 2 over 12 furlongs last time out. Meanwhile, anyone know what has happened to the French trained 3YO Marlowe??? My mind did extend to the Arc, re him, after his very, very, and I do mean very, very impressive debut (and to date only) racecourse appearance but he hasn't been seen since. Lovely pedigree as well as Marlowe's dam (Mori) was a Listed winner and Group 2 placed. Mori is also a daughter of the 6 time Group/Grade 1 winning filly, and one of my all-time favourites of all-time, Midday. Probs no chance whatsoever of Marlowe being supplemented for the '25 Arc but was so impressed by him on debut. And in my notebook remains an Eyecatcher with a capital 'E'.
The four year old Arrow Eagle has won his four 2025 starts, most recently the four runner Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly where he beat Sibayan in a photo. Sibayan subsequently won the Group 2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil. Arrow Eagle holds an entry in the Prix Foy, as does Sibayan. Also entered in the Prix Foy are last year’s winner Iresine, Jan Brueghel, Los Angeles, Illinois and Sosie. The next forfeit date for that is Tuesday 26th August. From your description you clearly mean the three year old Marlowe bred by Juddmonte and trained by Francis-Henri Graffard not Marlowe (FR) the five year old Al Wukair gelding trained by Mathieu Boutin or Marlowe (JPN) the two year old colt trained by Shoji Tanaka yet to win in five starts. He has not been seen since his ten furlong Chantilly debut and I cannot find any mention of plans for the son of Siyouni ex Mori even on Graffard’s official news. Marlowe does not hold an entry in the Prix Niel. Given how few runners he ever has on Arc Trials day it is interesting that Aidan O’Brien has nine of the thirty three still entered for September 7th. As you state, there looks to be little chance of him being added to the Arc as he holds no entries in potential trial races; and he is very lacking in experience.
Arc Fav Kalpana beaten today and now drifted out to 12s. Plenty now being backed now. 8 of the other 9 top priced going blue
My long range picks not looking too clever this year Fun bet £1 ew on Aventure 201 - now 16/1 Los Angeles 33/1 - now 25/1 having been shorter Jan Brueghel 40/1 - odds all over the place between 25/1 and 50/1 Regaleira 66/1 - odds all over the place between 33/1 and 66/1, although reported as missing the Arc
Saturday saw a cat thrown amongst the pigeons of the Arc betting as Kalpana was turned over in the September Stakes by Giavellotto. Connections report that the victor is unlikely to run in the Arc because he does not like soft ground so it would have to be very dry for the next three weeks and France Galop would have to keep the taps turned off for him to be at Longchamp. So before the Arc Trials are run, Minnie Hauk has inherited favouritism at 5/1 generally with her stablemate Whirl just behind at 6/1. I am almost certain that one of them will not be at Longchamp. Kalpana has drifted out and can be had at 14/1 in one place and 12/1 in a number of others. Giavellotto is generally a 33/1 shot but there are surely better 33/1 shots that are more likely to run. Six of the horses running in the Arc Trials can be found at prices between 16/1 and 25/1; and three of the others can be found at 66/1. By 4.10 Sunday BST the market might look a bit clearer... just kidding.
