As I'm sure you know theres some specific rule changes for next year, removing the advantages of the "top teams". For example 2012 will see a ban on exhaust blown diffusers, something which some teams didn't actually work out for 2011. Do you believe those who didn't have some of the trinkets of 2011, which will now be banned, will have some sort of an advantage as they've already had a year to try and adapt and be fat without them? Also who started on their cars the earliest, and do you believe there will be a new must have next year? (EBD, DD, F-duct et al.) This is basically going to be a thread of speculation, but oh well
i think what you are basicilly saying is will the mid / lower table teams catch up with the big 4 next year , the big 4 will allways have an advantage because they can out resource , out spend , have better designers ,better engines , better drivers , and have better facilities than all the rest with the possible exception of williams , when you have those kind of advantages it is very hard for the mid/lower table teams to ever catch up with the big 4 no matter what the rule changes are --
It can sometimes happen (rarely I admit). Honda from laughing stock to WDC and WCC champs. I'm not expecting anyone other than Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari (maybe Merc) to win races, but you may see Suaber more up there.
, you might possibly see williams move up next year now they have renault engines , as for lotus / renault who knows , i personally think those two are at a disadvantage with the big 4 because they probally lack a little grunt compared to the mercedes and ferrari V8s , you might have a more level playing field when the new engine regs take place in 2014 when all the the engine manufactures will have started with a clean sheet of paper --
Sauber have a shout because they took the blown diffuser off early on this year. The other one is (if Raikkonen hooks it up, which I doubt) you might see Lotus nick a couple towards the end of the year, like Alonso in 08. (Of course I'm not accusing Grosjean of ANYTHING...)
Is there a 'big four' though? I've always thought of a big 3 namely, Red Bull, McClaren and Ferrari. Personally I wouldn't have Mercedes in the same league and their lack of podiums does suggest there a fair bit behind... Regarding a closing up in the gulf between the top teams and the rest, I can only see further Red Bull domination next year. Perhaps not to the extent of last season but it'd be a pretty monumentous 'turn up' should they not retain their title next year. They will have enough technical nous from Newey to compensate for the altered regulations. I like the progress of Force India (and their expected driver line-up too) so I woudln't be surprised at all should they prove 'best of the rest' especially when you consider Mercedes reported lack of testing this winter...
I reckon Williams could be next season's dark horses. As for the main contenders, I agree Mercedes might still have a bit of work to do to be in the same league as Ferrari, RBR and McLaren, and will more likely have to fight off challenges from Force India.
Out of the big teams, Ferrari are obviously at the biggest advantage. In the midfield, Sauber and Williams should be better next year as they abandoned EBD development. I expect Lotus to struggle next year. They don't have the rescources or finances to keep up with the big boys and they've gone backwards since Densham left. They're not going to go very far under Boullier's leadership. If rumours are true and there are still grey areas in the exhaust rules, we'll see more crazy **** in that area.
They'll be a lot closer than they were this year by virtue of not having the pile of ****e that is the Cosworth engine, but I don't think they'll be anywhere near even the team of 05/06 that was close to podiums occasionally. If Force India do fire Sutil as is expected I actually see them having a bit of a poor season. They never start well, and for once they might not be able to develop their way out of that hole.
Yes. Whatever McLaren invent as the reason for Red Bull trouncing them once again. This. Mercedes are nowhere near the top three, except in budget.
I think Mercedes will get there, but it'll take more money and time. Realistically, I don't think Mercedes have a chance of mounting a serious title challenge until 2014, with the new regulations. If they are closer to either the top 3, or midfield, performance wise next season, I think we'll see more of what the drivers contribute. If neither can really take the car beyond, or at least to, it's limits, I think Mercedes will need to be prepared to ditch both of them. Whilst being Team Germany is a nice idea, I don't think the German talent pool can sustain it. I'd like to see Glock get another chance with a half-decent time, but with the exception of Vettel, who isn't going anywhere, I can't see quality German replacements. I'm predicting a di Resta + Kubica/Kovalainen line-up for 2014ish. Obviously the Kubica thing depends on whether he's fit, but from the recent BBC article about Renault aiming for the top 3, it seemed to indicate Renault don't think he has a future with them, so I expect him at either Ferrari or Mercedes if he ever drives again.
I'm not so sure the lack of EBD will make difference. After all, when the Double Diffuser was banned for 2011 we still saw the WCC finish in the same order for the top five teams. Admittedly, Merc, Renault and partly Ferrari's lack of showing has meant that podium had less variety this year. Thus they were all further away from the pack which left more points available for Red Bull/McLaren.
