I've just done the stats analysis for Saturday's game. Some aspects are a bit worrying; Charlton have scored 16 fewer goals so far than either of our two previous promotion winning campaigns. With 5 games to go, we will have to bag over 3 per game to get to the 73 we scored in 2018-19. That season we only conceded 40 - just two more than we have let in so far this season. Even during the 2020-21 & 2022-23 campaigns when we finished 7th & 10th Charlton scored 70 goals. We have not been scoring enough. If the teams in the 4 places below us (who are all still in with a shout of top 6) go on winning runs, Charlton may find themselves at risk of slipping out of the play-off places. I would say we are on target to bag maybe 66 goals and 80 points. We would be very unlucky to finish 7th with 80 points, but it isn't impossible. Our inability to fill our boots may be our undoing.
I hope that if we can continue in our form this will at least carry us to Wembley, then it is a one game lottery on the day.
Wycombe scoring in injury time may prove to be decisive for them, we'll see. Another win for us which realistically takes Bolton and Huddersfield out of the picture. We're coasting, if I was Jones I would have a man at every Stockport game now as we're very likely to be playing them.
We're still getting results, but we need Lloyd Jones for the playoffs. I really believe he's absolutely vital if we're to get through them. Another problem for us is that Small has gone off the boil recently, and he was hooked yet again today. And do we persist with Berry, who never plays 90 minutes? Now that we're almost sure to be in the playoffs it's time to give some minutes to Dixon and Gilbert
A massive if and the odds are against us, but. Should we bear Wycombe, I'm thinking the of Ivor's mob will be going at Bleakpool. We could go into next Saturday knowing a win will have us in 2nd place. A scenario unlikely but could happen.
They've got Lincoln on the last day of the season. If we hadn't dropped those 2 points against Lincoln when he played Anderson on the wing it would be completely in our hands, so maybe Lincoln can repeat that. After yesterday it's hard to see Wycombe beating Orient and Stockport in their last two games. They are both in great form.
I think we're most likely to finish 3rd, so get the 6th placed finishers in the Play-off semis. Probably Orient. I assume we get the advantage of home second leg.
