I must remember not to start a new Arc thread later... As the three year olds are a complete unknown (Zarigana won the Prix de la Grotte on her return but the price is probably 75% her pedigree), the older horses of interest would be 25/1 Sosie and 20/1 Aventure (last year’s runner up). Kalpana is favourite because of connections rather than track form. She won on Champions’ Day on heavy ground but was only third in the Ribblesdale on quick ground. If you want a shot in the dark, how about Sosie’s Camelot half brother Uther (won the Prix Noailles on Sunday)? Should stay but probably wants it soft. If you want a fast track to the poor house, then put your money on 16/1 Bluestocking as the daughter of Camelot was retired to stud after winning last year. I think that I would be inclined to wait for actual race entries to see what the Japanese contingent looks like; and, of course, we will have seen the three year olds in some Classic trials and the first Classics.
Those crooks at it again Uther won in a very fast time (good to soft) compared to all the other races on the card. But was beaten on very soft on second run My boy Jan Brueghel was disappointing. Didn't hang around in that race and JB sweated and hung right. Not too put off but would have been happier to see him hack up in that. Now out to 40/1 with WH but all the others have kept him at 33s which is interesting. He is in a G2 at the Curragh next month (again over 10f) against Galen again, plus Illinois and Los Angeles. Also entered in the Coronation Cup. Not sure what they are playing at here Of the ones that got placed last year I think I would prefer Los Angeles (see what Moore rides)
The one I will be looking out for is REGALEIRA. Pedigree swamped with class. He won the Arima Kinen (Grand Prix) (Grade 1) in Dec over an extended 12f, taking a few scalps Suave Richard won the Japan cup Harbinger waltzed the KG at Ascot in record time (would be nice to see him represented as I was dying to see him in the Arc) Hearts Cry won the Dubai Sheema Classic and was second in the Japan Cup Sunday Silence won most things, including Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Breeders Cup Classic and Preakness Stakes Unbridled Song won the Florida Derby and Breeders Cup Juvenile and loads of others, with just a few highlighted
Now introduced at 66/1 but only by Unibet Fun bet £1 ew on Aventure 201 Los Angeles 33/1 Jan Brueghel 40/1 Regaleira 66/1
A good start to the season for the “Wertheimer & Frere” operation in France as their two (potential) star older horses both collected at Longchamp on Sunday. The Christophe Ferland trained Aventure, runner-up in last year’s Arc after also chasing home Bluestocking in the Prix Vermeille, won the Prix Allez France first time out. Granted Maxime Guyon’s mount faced inferior opposition in the Group 3, being followed home by Andre Fabre’s Mme Jourdain (well beaten in a Listed race on her previous start), but she could only beat what rivals there were in the line up. The Andre Fabre trained Sosie, fourth in last year’s Arc after winning the Grand Prix de Paris and Prix Neil, won the Group 1 Prix Ganay first time out. At least he can claim to have beaten some reasonable opposition as the field included Karl Burke’s Royal Rhyme, Joseph O’Brien’s Al Riffa and Patrice Cottier’s Horizon Dore; while race-fit Map Of Stars (winner of the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt from Horizon Dore) was second. The bookies have hardly run scared after either of those victories, with Sosie and Aventure both trading at 16/1.
I see Nitoi won a listed race today at Chantilly. He was beaten fairly comfortably by Uther at Longchamp on 13th April
Cheers Oddy. I missed that. 16/1 now. Hasn't exactly boosted the chances of Jan Brueghel who was beaten by Galen. But that was too short for JB so haven't given up on him, being a lightly raced late developer. Hoping Regaleira's odds will look tasty at some point
Aventure was out at St Cloud today in the Group 2 Corrida. She was 1/3 and only needed to be pushed out to the strongest in readily. Quite impressive but not the strongest of Gp2 contests. Some firms have her 12/1 for the Arc but plenty of 16/1. My early pick for the race was Sosie at 20/1 just before his comeback race in the Ganay. He started second fav that day but won well enough. He wasn't exciting but I thought the race would take him forward a lot. Fourth in last uear's renewal he is almost certain to line up again barring mishaps and I just felt he must start at a single figure price should he be there on 5th October. The Lion In Winter is 33/1 which seems big compared to his Derby odds. The usual list of no hopers is present and it's a bit grim to see Kyprios the same price as The Lion In Winter. Is there anyone who would back Kyprios for the Epsom Derby if they bent the rules to let him run?
Sosie runs in the Prix D'Ispahan on Sunday. He meets John Gosden's improver Sardinian Warrior who is stepping up in class and trip having run at a mile thus far. French Racing has been garbage of late but I'll be surprised if a Listed winner can lift the group 1 contest. Sosie may be aimed at the Eclipse but I doubt he will find that to his cup of tea unless it comes up soft. It IS soft at Long champ tomorrow though, which means Sardinian Warrior will need to see the new trip out well. Sosie is 6/5 Fav and must win to keep his Arc hopes alive. I would have him odds on here, as the Gosden horse is going from Listed to Gp1 and up 2F in trip, so 10/3 doesn't look value to me.
Sosie got the job done but he needn't bother coming over for the Eclipse, particularly with Field Of Gold headed there it seems (2/1 Fav) ante post Sosie needs 12F I feel. He took all his time to wear Sardinian Warrior down and I just wonder if the step up from the mile found the Gosden horse out today.
Only a Listed win but Estrange gets a quote of 16-1 for the Arc. Trained by the Gosdens until July last year, on their advice she was moved to David O'Meara by Cheveley Park as an unraced 3yo. She made her debut in a 3yo maiden 8 weeks later which she won easily (started favourite). Ran poorly on her next start but won a good Listed race on the last day of the 2024 turf season: getting an OR of 100. Today she put that behind her with a scintillating performance at Haydock. She'll probably get an OR of 110 after that. After the race O'Meara said she'll probably go for the Pretty Polly or Lancashire Oaks, then Yorkshire Oaks and then if things look right the Arc. She'll have to improve something like 20lb on today's run to do that but she looked as if she had a ton in hand. Well bred by Night of Thunder out an unraced half-sister to Leger winner Logician. The other striking thing about her is that she is almost white.
To listen to the ITV team yesterday the Arc is already in the bag for Estrange. Talk about hyping it up. They did the same with Sea The Fire a few weeks ago but that seems long forgotten now as the children get a "wet on" for the latest Pegasus. The placing of the 93 rated Chorus in third raises alarm bells for me. The Haggas filly last won a Newmarket handicap off 83. Beautiful Love was rated 111 coming in but that seems set for a serious decrease after a second honker of a run where she was tanked by a supposedly 18lbs inferior rival, who is fairly exposed after ten starts . The Racing Post gave Chorus as running 9 lbs higher than her Official Rating and Beautiful Love as running 15 lbs below hers. Winner Estrange was given RPR of 112. Visually impressive but every horse in training looks good going past the trees on the gallops.
As I said she'll probably get an OR of something like 110 after that. That ties up with the 2nd running exactly to her rating of 105, did she or did she do better? We don't know. The RPR given to her for that race of 112 ties in with that, in my experience the RP is usually a few pounds ahead of the OR. As I said she'll also have to improve 20lbs on that figure to have a chance in the Arc. There doesn't seem to be an outstanding 12f horse about, so a horse with a rating of 130 could win the Arc. On a literal reading of the form she can't win the Arc. It was more how she did it. For 10f of the race she looked as if she was out with her mates having an exercise canter. It was the penultimate furlong where she put the race to bed. She could have won 12 lengths if Tudhope had pushed her. We'll see where she goes next.
It's the hype that gets me. Let the filly get there in her own time. The elephant in the room for me with the new handicap rating is Chorus who was third. She is now rated 102 and that looks questionable to me. Poor Beautiful Love runs 15 lbs below form and only gets a 3 lb drop. Ran 15 lbs below her OR the time before and only went down 2 lbs. She kicked off her 3YO career rated 88 and seems to have been overrated for her efforts abroad.
The Prix Du Jockey Club hardly set the punters rushing to get on any of those involved in the finish for the first Sunday in October. Winner Camille Pissarro and runner-up Caulificar still both trade at 33/1. I would not be surprised to see the Godolphin France colt line-up for the Grand Prix de Paris next as he looked to be done for pace over ten furlongs whilst the Ballydoyle colt may stick to ten furlongs as I think with a clear passage he might have won by more than the official margin; otherwise it did not look like a great renewal. Tattersalls Gold Cup victor Los Angeles now trades at 14/1, making him currently the shortest-priced Ballydoyle inmate. The shortest-priced three year olds are Delacroix at 25/1 and The Lion In Winter at 33/1. Clearly what happens in The Derby on Saturday will impact those odds as well as what happens in The Oaks on Friday with three Ballydoyle fillies involved. History tells us that the Arc is an ante post graveyard for fans of O’Brien – the best option is to wait until the day of the race. There has been some debate about the 16/1 odds of Haydock winner Estrange. Are the bookies being over cautious or are those with opinions being unduly negative? If she were from what is perceived as a ‘bigger yard’ then would observers have been more impressed? She has only had four races and in post-race interviews her trainer took the blame for her defeat second time out as a misjudged choice of race; and, obviously, considers her to be the best filly he has trained. As form the Haydock race does not appear to amount to much but there is plenty of time between now and October for her to prove that she is up to Group 1 standard. Although she would need to be supplemented (I think the owner has deep enough pockets), Oaks favourite Desert Flower is 16/1. Could that look generous by Saturday morning? Will the Arc betting still be dominated by older horses on Saturday evening? Will Los Angeles still be the shortest priced Ballydoyle inhabitant? For what it is worth, I still like last year’s runner-up Aventure at 16/1.
