Good Morning. It's Wednesday 16th April, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road Is Jayden Bogle Premier League Ready? Leeds United's promotion push requires players who can seize control when the pressure mounts. In their recent win against Preston North End, defender Jayden Bogle stepped up, embodying the drive and determination the team desperately needed. Bogle's impact was undeniable. He carried the ball a massive 366 meters, the most by a Leeds full-back since Luke Ayling in 2021. He touched the ball more than any other player on the pitch (91 times), created two chances, and delivered eight passes into the final third. Defensively, he recovered possession seven times, disrupting Preston's attacks. His energy and willingness to drive forward were crucial to Leeds' victory. Beyond his relentless running, Bogle's finishing has been a pleasant surprise. He's currently overperforming his expected goals (xG) tally, scoring six goals from an xG of 4.3. This demonstrates his ability to find promising positions and convert difficult chances. Signed for around £5 million last summer, Bogle has proven to be a shrewd acquisition. He's been a consistent presence in the lineup, missing only two games due to suspension and injury. His attacking output is supported by impressive stats: high touches in the opposition box and the highest combined xG and expected assists from open play among Championship full-backs. Defensively, Bogle's commitment is evident in his 11 yellow cards. Using the "true tackles" metric, he ranks highly among full-backs in terms of tackling frequency relative to opposition possession. His arrival filled a crucial gap left by Messrs Gray and Ayling absence. At 24, he has provided the immediate quality and drive Leeds needed to compete for promotion. But the question remains: can he translate his Championship success to the Premier League? His energy, attacking intent, and defensive commitment are valuable assets. However, the Premier League demands greater tactical discipline and defensive awareness. Bogle will need to refine his game over the Summer to cope with the increased quality and pace of the opposition. please log in to view this image Can Leeds survive Premier League challenge For years, newly promoted Championship teams have injected fresh blood and competitive spirit into the Premier League. However, the landscape seems to be shifting dramatically, with the gap between the two divisions widening to a concerning degree. What was once a relegation dogfight has become a comfortable cruise for established Premier League teams, leaving promoted sides struggling to keep their heads above water. The stark reality is reflected in recent seasons. Last year, Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town, all promoted in 2022/23, suffered immediate relegations. Their collective performance was abysmal, winning just eight out of a combined 76 Premier League matches. This season paints a similar picture, with Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town all but certain to become the worst-performing promoted trio in Premier League history, surpassing even last season's disappointing cohort. This trend marks the first time since the Premier League's inception in 1992 that all three promoted teams have been relegated in consecutive seasons. The omens are not good for Leeds United and Burnley, currently vying for promotion from the Championship. While the financial rewards of reaching the Premier League are significant, the sheer dominance of established teams raises serious concerns about their ability to compete. It's a paradox: teams like Southampton, Leeds United, and Leicester City, relegated from the Premier League, thrived in the Championship, amassing impressive points totals. Yet, even with such dominance, they couldn't translate that success to the top flight. Southampton's descent from 87 points in the Championship to a potentially record-breaking low in the Premier League exemplifies this troubling trend. The growing financial disparity further exacerbates the problem. Premier League clubs enjoy a massive revenue advantage, allowing them to invest heavily in their squads. While some promoted clubs attempt to spend big, as seen with Burnley's £100 million investment, it often proves insufficient against the established powerhouses. Even with added quality, the gap remains vast. The Premier League's quality is at an all-time high, setting a bar that is increasingly difficult for Championship teams to clear. Clubs like Bournemouth can now outbid European giants like Juventus and Inter Milan, highlighting the financial dominance of the Premier League. This widening gulf leads to a concerning possibility: a perpetual cycle where certain clubs are "too good" for the Championship but unable to compete in the Premier League, creating a purgatory-like state. Ultimately, this stagnation harms both leagues, diluting the competitive edge of the Premier League and creating a sense of futility for ambitious Championship clubs. For Leeds and Burnley, the challenge is clear: they must nail their recruitment strategy and be ruthless in the transfer market. While financial investment is crucial, tactical acumen, added quality, and vital experience are equally important. The road to Premier League survival is becoming increasingly treacherous, demanding a strategic and comprehensive approach to bridge the ever-widening gap. please log in to view this image Leeds eyeing Ferguson Summer move Leeds United are reportedly keen to secure the services of West Ham United striker Evan Ferguson next season, as they begin preparations for a potential return to the Premier League. The young Irish forward, currently on loan at the London Stadium from Brighton, has struggled to make an impact, leading to speculation about his future. Despite a high-profile reunion with former Brighton boss Graham Potter at West Ham in January, Ferguson has found himself on the fringes of the first team. Contrary to initial expectations, Potter has seemingly lost faith in the 20-year-old, with reports suggesting that he's not considered a key part of the team's future plans. According to Claret & Hugh, a prominent West Ham fan publication, the club has already decided against making Ferguson's move permanent in the summer. While West Ham haven't publicly confirmed this stance, a transfer insider has shed further light on the situation, linking Ferguson with a potential switch to Elland Road. "The manager [Potter] has already decided he doesn’t want him next season. Ferguson is good in the build-up play, but he’s third choice at West Ham," the source revealed. This insider also highlighted Leeds United's growing interest: "Leeds are planning for next season — Daniel Farke has already started preparations for the summer window... I think Leeds like Ferguson too, and he’d get games there." please log in to view this image
The FFP rules don't help. They're heavily loaded in favour of the sitting tenants. I recall Chelsea in the early period under Abramovich seemingly buying the best players from rival teams and putting them on the bench. In some ways, the Super League thing would have helped the PL, though it would have diverted significant revenue away from the PL and EFL.
I dread the thoughts of next season I really do. Just want to enjoy last couple of weeks in the championship. Sooner or later someone will buck the yo-yo trend you’d imagine. Hopefully that’s us. We need a couple of seasons to finish paying off ortas credit cards. Only then can we attempt to compete
Morning all What promotion will do, is enable us to be competitive again if we go back down with renewed parachute payment money. We will also have (hopefully) learned a lesson with the loan release clause. I don't want us to become a yoyo club, but we would be wrong to assume we can keep competing at the top of the Championship without the finances our dip into the PL earned us last time. Ipswich purchased so much talent from the Championship and it has got them nowhere, to assume any of our players are ready is a gamble, Solomon when he is on form stands out and look where Spurs are this season. you feel we need 11 players of his quality. If we go up, the PL will be a huge struggle, if we don't go up, don't expect continued seasons like the last two, parachute money has bought us that
All correct. However what quality player will sign without a loan release clause. Orta claimed it was essential to making signings. If so we’ll be in same boat next time we drop. Another issue is the 18m to agents bores some hole in the parachute payments
Bogle as improved as the season as gone on and he's at the right age, there are certainly more pressing issues than RB. IF we go up I fully expect us to come straight back down without some serious investment and shrewd signings, the gap is ever widening and even the teams normally considered also rans are pulling away from promoted teams. But as Ristac says we need this if only for financial reasons. 17th would be a success then see if we can grow from there.
IF we go up, still worked to do on that.... Team will need to be something along the lines of.. -----------------new keeper Bogle..Rodon..New signing..New signing --------------Ampadu-----Tanaka James------New signing-----Solomon -----------------New signing That would be 5 New signings probably around 20 million each. That would be £100 million minimum. We'd also need to sign Solomon permanently for £10 million and replace Rothwell (back to Bournemouth). Sell Meslier, release Bamford (pay him up), release Firpo, sell Wober. Happy for Aaronson to be sold as long as he is replaced. Kristensen to go, Harrison to go. Prolly get £20-25 million for Kristensen, Harrison and Meslier combined. Might get £15 million if Barca win Champions league and Raphinha wins Ballon dor.
Question based on finances. I don’t really bother but have we repaid the 46m big Kev money or is that being done in instalments
Its widely reported that the Big Kev money was sorted under Radz before he left so should have no further financial ramifications for us. It seems likely that the big money sales of Gray and Rutter and lack of investment in January will put us in a strong financial position for this year's accounts allowing a sizeable squad investment this summer.....if promoted.
The intentions of the 49er group is unclear but it seems like the want to build up the stadium to increase matchday revenue which makes the club more money to invest in the squad. On paper it looks like lost money when spent on players but it increases the sale price of the club massively if the succeed. What they did in San Francisco was very good for the fans. Hopefully the same model is used here. Hopefully the red bull connection gives us some support with player recruitment.
Difference in USA sport, correct me if wrong, is they don't have to contend with relegation and the loss of fortunes that go with it. Wouldn't be any gamble in extending Elland Road if we were guaranteed to stay in pl. Therefore Im not sure how relevant the American model is to us
Yep, as I said, it's unclear. Maybe they see it as Radz did. Survive next year, sell to red bull for £300-400 million? Doesn't make sense to me. Build the stadium up, build the squad and sell for over £1 billion in a few years would be my play with the finances they have. Radz didn't have the finances to push that envelope but the 49ers do.
The 49ers and Farke have already said, there will be no loan release clauses, sale clauses maybe but not loans. Delap has a £40m release fee clause which drops to £30m if relegated so they can be done. We seemed to be the first ever under Orta to issue so many and I have not seen it repeated. Those signings were also a waste of time anyway as they never had the quality required to keep us up. I do think we will see Redbull investing more upon promotion, probably taking a larger chunk of shares. They just need to make sure it is recorded as advertising deal and it won't affect fair play, it will probably be their money that's used on the stadium expansion Complete stab in the dark, sell the stadium to Redbull who redevelop it and rent it to us for a set amount whilst increasing their share value, in 2 years time Redbull buy out 49ers. Who knows, either way promotion this time around (would) see us in a stronger position than last time
From what I’ve read we’re not as well positioned as many think. Can’t remember where I read it, but it was recently. As disappointing as it would be, doubt we’ll be in a position to splurge £100m on incoming talent. Personally I reckon we need to upgrade at least 5 positions to make us remotely bottom half competitive if we go up.
I believe we have £43m to pay out this summer, so we either go up or sell sell sell and a much weaker squad next season.
never thought much of him but he’s apparently been ripping it up in the bundesliga. A usually reliable source has suggested Farke wanted him back and preferred him to bogle (don’t shoot the messenger) - but he wanted to stay in Germany.
