As it is only a week on Saturday, and I can't see any ante-post bets on the race, I thought I would start a thread for the World's greatest steeplechase Intense Raffles looks to have got in with a lightish weight based on his runs against Nick Rockett (I do like the pedigree of the latter). Intense Raffles it at 6s and 7s which puts me off . Iroko was beaten just 4l by the Gold Cup winner so it's not difficult to see why he is so short at 8/1 However, I don't like to see 7yos in the National so I have to go against the top 2 in the betting (Intense Raffles and Iroko) Two I have a bit of a soft spot for are Vaniller (probably because I fancied him last year) and Hewick (can't forget that run in the KG where he came from nowhere). Vanillier though has been beaten 3 times by Stumptown so looks well held. But he did almost go the wrong way and left at the rear when 3rd to Stumptown at Cheltenham so I won't give up on him. Currently at 12/1 so not big enough to entice me into an EW bet. Same applies to Hewick, also only 12/1 Although I haven't mentioned last year's winner yet, he was so impressive last year and is only a 9yo going into this year's race. With just another 6 lbs on his back he can not be left out of the reckoning and is available at 9/1 If you ignore Perceval Legallois, who for some reason is up there at 12/1, I have mentioned the first 7 in the betting which is unusual for me in a National So is there anything with a chance outside these? The one I like best at decent odds is the 9yo Monbeg Genius at 33/1. I watched his last race where he won at Uttoxeter. Jumped very well all the way round, won going away, carrying 12.0. In the National he carries just 10.6 To summarise I would go for I Am Maximus to win at 9/1 and Monbeg Genius EW at 33/1
I fancied Vanillier a bit more than waiting for the decs Ron, hence I have two AP bets of 40/1 and 33/1...!! I also have the Kandoo Kid @ 20/1 as well...
This race is becoming a parody , the race is now swamped and controlled by the big Irish stables / owners effectively, where horses can be laid out all year , using the handicap system they control the weights with higher rated horses just there to ensure their plots have a good chance , while denying more genuine people who race their horses all season not able to get a run…….half million handicap
Agree with Red regarding Vanillier’s chances. Although he’s already tried and failed twice and his price is too short now given the jeopardy that still exists. If i was sat on AP vouchers at those prices I’d be delighted. Hopefully the pilot will get a map of the route before the off! Hewick at 20/1 ew AP was of enough interest for a small speculation and Twister’s Beauport @ 33/1 similar. The other one I think has a smart chance is Willie’s Grangeclare West. There’s the tricast
I know @OddDog has pushed the "moan" thread. However my moan is on here. UK trainers Dr Newland and Sara Bradstock moaning about the dominance of Irish trainers in the Grand National and the idea of either capping entries from trainer/owners or having a "win and you are in" system. My thoughts on this are simple. DO BETTER. UK has 15 of the top 34 in the weights, given the results at Cheltenham, you would probably say they are over achieving if this many ran in the race!! What is even more telling is that two of those are ex Noel Meade Idas Boy and ex Willie Mullins Mr Incredible (most incredible name for his recent antics). Take Mr Vango for instance, he has three wins in a row, and has gone from 135 to a mark now of 152. This would get him into the race, so why not run him in better races earlier in his career? He started off his good thread of form with a win at Exeter in knee high mud off 120!! If Sara Bradstock had GN ambitions, she should have got his mark up sooner. It is clear that you are unlikely to get into the race off 143!! On one note I do feel for her though, he won at Haydock off 140 by 3 lengths. He only got up 3lb for that!! Perhaps she should have been asking the handicapper to be more harsh with her stable star? What the old race needs is better UK horses, more competition at the top level and people excelling. Instead it gets people moaning and wanting to change the rules. The national is just a north star for the issues in UK jumps racing. Just DO BETTER.
Trying a 100/1 shot. At this stage it is worth a few each way even though it is likely it won't get home. Maybe the few pounds less will help Coko Beach
Agree with this. Far too easy to lay the blame for racing woes here with a few very successful trainers in Ireland. I go back to the County Hurdle. 10 slots not taken up when trainers needed a horse rated mid 120s. I think too many over here moan a lot but are very comfortable anyway and have hoisted the white flag. James Owen maybe the future.
Mr Vango , has run in three slogs this season, but he jumps and stays from the front , he would be a great national type , shame they can’t get in , always next year ………
Hi Rudey I hope all well with you. I think they were under the impression MV had to have mud. Uttoxeter proved otherwise. I think he’d be great in the National. It’s never better than the soft side of good to soft there anyway whatever the stated going so there would be enough cut for him.
Just watched that race. as a result of MV being mentioned here. MV led almost every yard over 4 miles 2f carrying 12.0, jumped well and brave as they come at the finish. If he does get in (which is unlikely) I would have to include him at 33/1 carrying 10.2. He will be 10 next year and if he can get in the low 10 stone mark I would be very interested antepost. Don't know when weights are allotted but at low 10 stone I suspect he will be less than 33/1 next year
Hi chan, I’m all good thanks , don’t have much time during the day normally , out council ward has doubled in size , I’ve half of bangor high st plus about 6,500 people to represent, as you know bangor high st has had some real issues last few years , your old shop is in the ward . Hope all is good with you bud
Bangor High Street is massive and sadly our shop was at the wrong end. Almost impossible task to regenerate a High Street of that size in the current climate. Were I live is much smaller and seems to do ok commercially but helped massively from having Harper Adams (Agriculture) uni students on our doorstep. I left that Charity nearly 2 years ago and opted for semi retirement mate.
9 minutes 12 was winning time 9 minutes 05 winning time in 2023 on soft Other previous soft description times - 9 06 9 11 9 13 Good to soft - 9 03 and 8 41 !! Interestingly Proform give the going as -7 which is just inside heavy, and perhaps shows how bottomless the course was in 2024 when the winner only managed 9 minutes 44!!
The 2025 renewal of the GN is a real 'laughing at the English' edition - this years race marks the 10th anniversary since an English trained horse won the Grand National. That is some bloomin' achievement byr the English NH fraternity!!! Almost as bad as them now naming races at the Cheltenham Festival after Zara Tindall's branch of that awful family - As I said back in January 'Royal' Cheltenham is getting closer... Anyway the the stats / trends I've got for the Grand National are - 23 of the last 29 Grand National winners were making their Grand National debuts. Since Liberthine took fifth in the 2007 Grand National Nicky Henderson's record in the big race reads -FU9U0FPP0UF0P8. No horse wearing the number '1' on the racecard has won the Grand National since 1974 (in fact, since this date, only one horse allocated '1' on the racecard has finished in the first 4). In the Grand National, since 2012, horses aged 12YO+ are 0/43. No English trained horse has won, the Grand National, since 2015. Nigel Twiston-Davies is 0/12, in the Grand National, since 2013. 9 of the last 11 winners had already got their head in front in the season of their Grand National victory. Not since Bobbyjo, in 1999, has a winner of the race carried less than 10st 3lb. Mon Mome, in 2009, was the last horse to win the Grand National after having being beaten in the race previously. 10YOs are 0/101, in the race, since 2013. The last Grand National runner-up to win the race 12 months later was Red Rum in 1977 - the formline of the last 11 to try is -F9U0UFP0UP0. The formline, in the Grand National, of horses who had been placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on their previous start reads (from the early 80's) -240FBFP471U2FF45U (1/17). The '1' was Rough Quest in 1996. The last Welsh trained winner, of the Grand National, was Kirkland in 1905. No Wiltshire trained horse has won the Grand National since 1937. No mare has won the race since 1951. Only 2 out of the past 40 winners, of the Grand National, had won or placed in the race previously. The past 9 winners were all aged 9 or younger. 11 out of the past 14 winners, of the Grand National, were Irish bred. The winner of that season's Haydock Park Grand National Trial has a formline of -75P0P6P (0/7) when running in the Grand National since 2000.
I did actually dust down my old time ratings books and formula (quiet in the cheap seats) and have now time / speed (call it what you want) rated the races at the Cheltenham Festival and the Uttoxeter marathon. Whether speed is the right word to use in association with Mr Vango, is I guess a debate for another day, but he did, from me at any rate, get a big figure for his win in the Midlands National. It does need though to be highlighted that Mr Vango has gone up 9 lbs (to 152) after his Uttoxeter success.
