All this talk of sample sizes of ten, six and three got me thinking about how the bottom three places would look if you use those and other sample sizes as a method for calculating the estimated points after the remaining games: Season-long sample: 21: Hull City: 43pts 22. Plymouth: 40pts 23: Derby: 39pts 24. Luton: 38pts 30 game sample: 21. Hull City: 43pts 22. Plymouth: 40pts 23. Derby: 40pts 24. Luton: 39pts 20 game sample: 21: Hull City: 41pts 23. Plymouth: 39pts 23. Derby: 38pts 24. Luton: 38pts 10 game sample: 21. Hull City: 45pts 22: Plymouth: 42pts 23. Derby: 32pts 24: Luton: 29pts 6 game sample: 21. Hull City: 46pts 22: Plymouth: 44pts 23. Derby: 33pts 24: Luton: 31pts 3 game sample: 22. Cardiff: 36pts 23. Hull City: 34pts 24: Luton: 27pts Points per game earned under current manager: 21. Hull City: 46pts 22. Plymouth: 43pts 23. Derby: 41pts 24. Luton: 33pts Even if you consider three games as a valid sample size, in only one of those seven sample sizes does the data point towards relegation.
Interesting as well that Cardiff only appear after a 3 game sample size. I'm keeping a keen eye on Cardiff - their fixture list looks tough. If we beat them in our game coming up - I think we'll finish above them.
On paper, our fixture list looks kinder than the teams around us too. If we can pick up points like we did under Sellés prior to the Stoke game I’m convinced we’ll be okay.
Which illustrates my point, that GFAW has contrived an outcome to a preconceived outcome by his perverse selected sample size. But he's since said that somehow he didn't post what he posted, so it's kinda redundant now anyway.
Good job for Cardiff (and us) that form and results over the last 3 games apparently don't matter then. Too small a 'sample size' to affect anything. Btw, all this talk of me deliberately selecting a sample size of 3. I didn't. After seeing the form over the past 10 and 6 games posted, all I did was say 'ok, now try the last 3 (results)'. Usual idiots then ran away with it and it grew artificial legs, with additional bizarre accusations & comments added. Absolute ****wits. To save some looking back: "Now try the last 3". "The logic is that we're supposed to get better by the week". "and I fully realise it's 'only' 3" "We aren't doomed, but we are in deep, deep trouble, and we aren't showing signs of getting out of it".
It's almost like the last three are included in the last six or something and do in fact matter. In fact as each successive game is played they become more significant than the older games (assuming they actually are indicative of a trend) as those games roll off, so if our form is indeed falling off a cliff that will reveal itself as that 'fall off a cliff' becomes more statistically significant. For someone that gloats about how knowledgeable they are about statistics you're doing an awful good job of appearing dense.
How quickly things can change. Not very long go it looked like two teams were getting cut adrift at the bottom and we were in a battle with 3 or 4 teams for the final relegation place. Now it looks like those bottom two have closed the gap, 1 or 2 of the 3 or 4 have broke away from the immediate danger leaving us in a very close battle with 4 or 5 others with all three relegationplaces up for grabs.
Why can't you get it into your thick argumentative head that all I said was "ok, now try the last 3". It simply makes the point that, while some may get (imo misplaced) comfort from looking back over 10 games or whatever, our most recent form is 1 point out 9. I have never claimed any statistical signifance to it. It's not a paper for an MBA or a Degree in Statistics ffs. It's simply looking back at our last 3 games. Surely it can't be hard to get, unless you really are an idiot or get a kick out of arguing (and making stuff up) for the sake of it ... or both.
You literally just said "Good job for Cardiff (and us) that form and results over the last 3 games apparently don't matter then." Or are you going to try to pretend you didn't say that because you never say anything wrong?
And that entire first line of the post wasn't made in order to try to stoke an argument of course because you never try to start arguments you just have to put up with them..
Looking at the way the table has changed over the season, those moments when teams have looked like they were cut adrift or moved away have usually been quite temporary, with small winning or losing streaks (not dissimilar to our last three games) that have course corrected fairly quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the gap between the teams above us and those below us close during the run in. Plymouth have only averaged 1.13 points a game compared to Luton’s 0.84. Based on those numbers you’d look at everyone from 18th down and only expect those teams (us included) to earn between 11 and 15 points before the end of the season, unless they go against 30+ games of form. One or two might, but the majority won’t. That means that six wins out of 14 games is most likely good enough as that would be 18 points and above the maximum of the expected points range. That would mean we finish the season with 48 points. The issue is that we’ve only won 7 games so far, so 6 wins is unlikely. I think we’d be looking at 3 wins and 6 draws to guarantee safety. Which means we can probably only afford to lose 5 games.
Not every 50 year old is overweight Edit.. Hes way younger than i thought 41 I forget he left us young and now at 30
To be fair I was more talking about the future than the past - as in I’m not basing my thoughts on Cardiff on the last three games - it’s more what they’ve got to come.
We should have signed Louis Suarez. We need some bite up front. Mind you, we should force him to leave his false teeth in the glass during a game, otherwise our form would plummet with him being red carded for most of the rest of the season for his oral bad luck. You can't win with this prediction/speculation argument. Don't quote me, I didn't mention it. Some hypocrite may call me illiterate