Good Morning. It's Wednesday 19th February, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road 92 points is the target Daniel Farke has urged his Leeds United side to secure 20 more points from their remaining 13 Championship fixtures to guarantee automatic promotion. While the current form guide suggests Leeds could reach a phenomenal 100 points, the German manager is taking a more cautious approach, aiming to reduce the pressure on his players. Farke acknowledged the team's positive position but stressed the long road ahead. Historically, 92 points have been sufficient for promotion in five of the last six seasons (excluding the previous campaign). The last time two teams surpassed 92 points for promotion was in the 2016/17 season, when Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion achieved 94 and 93 points, respectively. "Yes, there's a gap, (between Leeds and Burnley in third) and that's definitely, definitely good. But sadly there are more than just four or five games to go. Sadly, we have still many, many games to go. If we were to stop right now on 72 points, we would perhaps make it into the top six, but it's not guaranteed. Hopefully we won't lose all the last 13 games, so I think it's a major step. "But we have to definitely reach the play-offs and in order to be there in the top two with automatic promotion, yeah, we need to win 20 more points. And for that, it's a long road. Each and every game is complicated. please log in to view this image Farke appeal dashed Daniel Farke will be forced to watch his side's crucial Yorkshire derby against Sheffield United from the stands next Monday, after receiving his third yellow card of the season against Sunderland. Despite supporters hoping for an appeal, FA rules state that yellow cards, considered minor disciplinary actions, are not eligible for appeal, dashing any hopes of overturning the touchline ban. While Farke will be present at Bramall Lane, his matchday experience will be significantly altered. He is prohibited from occupying his usual dugout position before, during, and after the game. Leeds fans accustomed to Farke's post-match salute to the travelling support will also be disappointed, as touchline bans explicitly forbid entering the field of play at any point. He will be unable to actively coach his team or issue instructions during the match itself. However, the rules do allow him to participate in pre-match, half-time, and post-match team talks in the dressing room. He can also engage with match officials before and after the game, provided they are agreeable to such an approach, but crucially, any interaction in the tunnel is strictly forbidden. FA rules offer no recourse. Regulations classify a yellow card as a 'minor disciplinary action,' and appeals are only permissible for more serious offenses. The FA, in alignment with PGMOL (Professional Game Match Officials Limited), maintains this stance to prevent a deluge of appeals against yellow cards. please log in to view this image 95.7% chance of promotion Leeds have a 95.7% chance of promotion this season, according to leading sports analytics company OPTA. Unsurprisingly, the Blades are not far behind (62%), whilst Burnley (38%) and Sunderland (4%) make up the rest. They also tip the Whites to hold on to top spot, with a 78.8% chance of lifting the coveted Championship title with Sheffield Utd only afforded a 15.3% chance. please log in to view this image
Morning all. Anyone else admit to being like a teenager still watching clips from Monday night of the goals, celebrations and crowd reaction. Im still getting a buzz from it
I watched the highlights esp the second goal umpteen times. Then binged on the 11 goals v Cardiff and Watford (again).
Afternoon all. Watched it umpteen times, love it. As for the breakfast thread, I don’t think Farke should be lowering his expectations from the team, he should be pushing them to aim higher for the 100 points. As my dear old dad used to say (god rest his soul), aim for the moon and if you don’t reach it at least hit the stars.
Afternoon all Four games ago I felt 93 points meaning 10 wins and 3 draws at the time. Beating Sunderland and Burnley slipping up I’d imagine 92 would do it We need to get the remaining points as quickly as possible, there was a statistic posted on the Sunderland forum that last season, Ipswich, Sunderland, Leeds and Leicester each won less than 50% of their last 10 games, (could have been 11/12) fixtures
Exactly, get the required points total asap, then that allows more time to prepare for next season - retentions and possible incomings. Don’t want the players having the mindset of ‘we can afford to lose one or two games because the gaffer said we only need another 20 points from 13 games’ because before you know it it’ll be 12 points needed from the last 5
Forgot to mention, I also agree with leedsoflondon and now Forza, Farke should be setting them a huge target The quicker we’re promoted the quicker we can sort out the last few loan rats futures, the better we can attract early targets and plan
Sunderland and Burnley have easier run ins, in my view, than ourselves and the blunts. Which ‘could’ tighten things up…. Though no one has an especially tough run on paper. Reality is though that the form book goes out of the window once you hit the stretch and the pressure kicks in. If I was DF I wouldn’t get drawn on points targets, it’s different every year. 1 game at a time. Play to win. Rinse and repeat.
Grrrr Ristac trust you make me go and look at my spreadsheets Obviously not going to disagree with the figures you mentioned, because we are kind of hazy about the number of games. What I can say is that last season, the top 4 all won 6 of their last 12 games. Ipswich averaged the most points per game (2 ppg), except for us who only won 5 (edited to correct my mistake as identified by Gobawn) Just looking over the last 7 seasons, at the clubs placed in the top 4 positions with 12 games to go, out of 28 clubs, only 12 have managed to win more than 50% of their final 6 games. 6 of those clubs winning 7, 4 clubs winning 8 , Watford winning 9 on 2020/21 and only one club managing to win 10 of their last 12 games, that was Leeds when we won the championship on 2019/20. The 2019/20 season is the only one in the last 7 where 3 of the 4 teams in the top 4 won more than 50% of their final 12 games. Last season was the only one where none of the top 4 won more than 50% of their final 12 games, with the 2022/23 season being the next worst, with Bournemouth being the only one of the top 4 teams to win more than 6 of their final 12 games. In that season we won the Championship, WBA won 4 of their last 12 games, picking up 17 points out of 36. Of the clubs that were in the top 4 placings after 34 games, both Blackburn and QPR only managed to pick up 3 wins out of their last 12 games, although QPR are ranked last, as they only managed to pick up 10 points out of 36, with Blackburn managing to pick up 14 points. 3 times has a team outside of the top 4 finished 3rd, in the 2022/23, 2021/22, and 2017/18. In the 2021/22 season Huddersfield finished 3rd and Nottingham Forest finished 4th despite being outside of the top 4 after 34 games. Huddersfield were 5th on goal difference, 3 points behind at that time 3rd placed Sheffield United, whilst Nottingham Forest who eventually finished 4th, were in 9th place after 34 games, 5 points behind QPR, who were 4th with 12 games remaining. 5 times out of the last 7 seasons, the top 2 after 34 games have both gone on to win automatic promotion. Ourselves and Swansea are the two clubs who failed to accomplish that. Whilst the clubs in top position with 12 games remaining, over the last 7 seasons, have all gone on to achieve automatic promotion, only WBA failed to go up as champions, that was when they eventually finished 2nd to ourselves.
I dont tell anyone anything, I just provide stats. It's up to your to form your own opinion about them
Compared to you I am a statistical Pygmy, which is why I ask for some nudge from you as to what this tells me. I need reassurance that this means our odds of promotion are higher
I’m also assuming that we will have to factor in another ****ing international break right in the middle of a crucial stage of the season, which ballsed us up last year. I am hoping when it comes around all our key players develop “niggles” that require rest for two weeks.
Pressure on Burnley and Sunderland now they they know they have to win to build gaps they the ones playing catch up. Burnley cant end games now thinking a clean sheet is the objective if they not winning come 70 mins they going to have to take risks rather than seeing out a clean sheet. Personally hope this clean sheet continues and plays on their minds and forget to do the most important thing score goals.
