It's always dangerous to target particular games for points and even more to target a total that would more or less guarantee survival - but let's give it a go. As Nin says (and we new anyway ) beating the teams around us is the key. If we go to somewhere like Leeds next week and pick up anything, it'll be a bonus. So let's set Omer a target of 50 points for safety - I think Brum went down with that last year but that was exceptionally high and from memory I've not seen that for ages. So we need to win 6 games out of the remaining 17 and chuck the odd draw in there as well. We've got home games to come against fellow strugglers Hull, Stoke, Luton and Oxford, and we've got Portsmouth and Plymouth away - there's the half dozen - simples. We've also got the two W's to come to the CCS - Wurzels and Wendies. I'd like to think we could win both those. A couple of shock results agains Leeds, Burnley, Sheff Utd and West Brom, and we could be going into the last Game at Norwich with a chance of the playoffs.
It's scary to say we need 6 wins from 17 given we've only won 7 from 29. To be fair, 3 have been in the last 8. As has been said elsewhere, Leeds is a free hit. It'll be more about the performance and the control they can show. Then, after the cup game, 3 winable games with the Wurzles being the toughest. That gets us to the end of Feb. As has been seen, it's a squad game and Omer seems to be making changes, enforced or otherwise, reasonably well. El Ghazi seems to be hitting his straps at the right time. Even if he's only coming off the bench. Rino and Chambers stepping up to the plate. LB is looking a bit sketchy and 10 has been a bit hit and miss. Ashford has stepped up but won't play every game. Not sure about the DM that's being touted, a pacy wide man is needed more. The additional striker would be bonus and Reindorff should only go on loan if we get one in. im reasonably confident we'll stay up, but a run like we had before the current 8 unbeaten would see us doomed. I think the Swans are looking over their shoulder as well. On the plus side, 4 of Hull, Stoke, Portsmouth, Derby, Luton and Plymouth all need to win more than us for us to go down.
I’ve suggested on the transfer thread left back cover may be needed dependant on O’D’s injury and whether JC goes and whether Giles can step up. Of seeming more necessity is a pacy winger. Ashford should start most games IMO but Willock just doesn’t do enough and has no pace whereas EG has that quality but maybe doesn’t have 90 minutes in him. Our defence though is always susceptible. Fish is ok cover. Daland has an error in him too often and for next season we need a bigger keeper - their keeper made 3-4 top saves yesterday largely due to the length of his arms and legs. Although and for next season I’d like to see a quicker central midfielder who can drive forward there’s enough there plus Ramsey & Turnbull may be back in March for at present the run in which will leave Riza a decision to make on who plays. Salech is a handful and looks a decent signing long term but if say Robinson gets injured we probably need cover if Etete & Reindorf are going out on loan. At present we rarely don’t score but also miss a lot of good chances- yesterday we should have had 4-5. I’m more optimistic we’ll stay up after this months results. We had 4 home games and got 8 points (arguably should have been 10–12) so if we can keep that form going at home and keep on picking points away from home irrespective of likely barren trips to Sheff U, Sunderland and Leeds I’d like to think we’ll be ok.
It's all about how much just half a dozen games can change that table. Look at the difference in the various club's fortunes since Christmas time - in particular Derby and Luton down and us up................... THEN.............. please log in to view this image AND NOW....... please log in to view this image
Only caveat to that analysis is who are opposition in those 6-7 games. I haven’t looked but eg say 3 of those games are versus Leeds, Burnley etc then it wouldn’t be surprising to see a team plummet. Rarely do the top 4 in the league slip up to basement teams - Hull at Sheff U a rare example. Lets hope we can upset the odds on Saturday
Our next 6 games include away trips to Leeds, Pompey, Plymouth and Sunderland and home to Bristol and Burnley. So 3 out of the top 4
Tough call that, but those are just the games we need to pinch points from rather than expecting miracles. The next 6 after that are none of the top 6. Luton, Wendies and Stoke all at home, with Blackburn, QPR and Preston away. I'd be dissappointed with less than a dozen points from those. Maybe the Hull at home Champ fixture postponed due to our FA Cup tie at Stoke will also be re-arranged within that time frame - that's one we should certainly target as a "6 pointer".
