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The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 23rd January)

Discussion in 'Leeds United' started by ellandback, Jan 23, 2025.

  1. Aski

    Aski Well-Known Member

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    My Googling skills are second to everybody :emoticon-0140-rofl:
     
    #21
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  2. Brizzlewhite

    Brizzlewhite Well-Known Member

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    I'm after which foot they scored with next, then colour of bootlaces.
     
    #22
  3. Leedsoflondon

    Leedsoflondon Well-Known Member

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    <laugh>
     
    #23
  4. Aski

    Aski Well-Known Member

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    There you go Brizz. Basically we have gained 7 points due to substitutions scoring 3 critical goals, and 2 critical assists.

    Portsmouth - 1 point - Goal From Aaronson and assist from Piroe
    QPR - 2 points - Goal from Piroe
    Swansea - 2 points - Goal from Gnonto
    Derby (A) - 2 points - Assist from Piroe

    All the other goals and assists from substitutes have been when we were already in the lead, but you could also consider the following vital contributions :

    Cardiff - Piroe goal and Joseph assist to put us 2 - 0 up
    Middlesboro - Piroe assist to put us 3 -1 up
    Hull - Piroe goal to put us 2 - 0 up
    Sheff Utd - Joseph goal to put us 2 - 0 up
    Sheff Wed (H) - Ramazani goal to put us 2 - 0 (the assist to put us 3 - 0 up I don't class as being critical)

    upload_2025-1-24_0-28-36.png
     
    #24
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  5. Aski

    Aski Well-Known Member

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    Mostly with their left or right, except for when they used their head.

    And all bootlaces are black, even when they aren't ;)
     
    #25
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  6. Brizzlewhite

    Brizzlewhite Well-Known Member

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    Black laces matter!
     
    #26
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  7. Brizzlewhite

    Brizzlewhite Well-Known Member

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    Cheers. I thought that the subs seemed to be making a difference and wanted to check. Noting that Farke has also been getting some flak over the timings.
     
    #27
  8. Aski

    Aski Well-Known Member

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    The problem is though all the times when subs don't appear to have made a difference, especially in those games where we don't pick up maximum points. There will always be that feeling that should we have made substitutions earlier etc.

    Obviously the above table showed those times when substitutes had scored or assisted in games, and I classed what I consider to be critical moments. However it could be argued that in say the Swansea game, when Farke made his first substitution, we were winning 3 -2. Did the substitutions alter the pattern of play that allowed Swansea to get back into the game, and thus allow me to class Gnonto's goal as a critical moment.

    Likewise with the opening game of the season against Portsmouth. The score was 2-2 when we made our first substitutions, and whilst both Aaronson and Piroe got a goal and assist to earn us a point at the end of the game, they were substitutions made with the mindset of winning us the game, not in saving us a point. So whilst I've classed their contribution in that game as being critical, they didn't actually achieved the desired effect they were brought on for.

    Now if we just want to look at it on a pure numbers situation, from every league game we have played this season, with the score being what it was at the time of the first substitution, we would have 56 points. Now obviously a game is dynamic, and we have no idea what would have happened if subs had been made earlier, later or not at all, but from a pure numbers point of view, you could say that we have gained 3 extra points because of substitutions.

    There are 2 games where the result of the match has been changed after we have made our final substitution, Preston away where we gained 1 point, and of course Sunderland away where we lost 2 points (obviously not because of the subs directly).

    The table below shows the full impact of subs in all our leagues games this season (only tactical subs, not ones made due to injury, which obviously also have an affect). In total just from a pure mathematical point of view, subs may have possible affected a total of 6 games, 4 in a positive way and 2 in a negative way, when compared to how the game was prior to subs being made. There is no point in going into the "what if " scenario as all anyone could do is guess, hence why I say this is from a pure mathematical situation.

    I guess the one stat people could query, is that whilst of course teams win less points away from home, given that the average time of the 1st substitution we make away from home is 8 minutes later than when we play at home, could we have picked up one or two more points on our travels, if that average was more in line with the average for home games

    upload_2025-1-24_13-40-45.png
     

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    #28
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2025
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