the relegation rivals

What's worse, our home form or their away form? Genuine question.

 

Easily their away form. Think they have 2 points all season and concede an average of almost 3 goals a game.

 

I watched Portsmouth last night and they look impressive when playing at home, their next home match ls Mllwall at home and I can't see them losing it so that will give them 32 points if they get nothing at West Brom. Their home form could make them safe unless it changes dramatically

 

I never say if down or not 'til the numbers tell me Syd.

 

Exactly this.

There's 18 games left and 54 points up for grabs for every team (57 for Millwall and Portsmouth). Any one of these teams could go on a session saving run. It's absurd to write anyone off at this point.

Everyone who says we'll definitely stay up (or twist that: we're too good to go down), needs to be cautious. You're only as good as your league position and our current league position relegates us.

I'm not going to predict anything (apart from the fact that I've predicted that), but if we don't improve our home form significantly then we'll be caught up in the relegation mix at the end of the season.

 

This.

 

Plymouth have 3 (not 2) points away from home all season and have conceded 35 goals in 14 games. They just got hammered 5-0.

 

But there's still points to win Syd, until they're mathematically down then they're up aren't they?

 

Never forget Leicester 2014-15...

 

Guess Southampton can still stay up too then.

 

plymouths manager has said morgan whittaker didnt turn up
aka, refusing to play and downing tools to get his move

hes a ****, but hes their only bit of quality, theyre down down and downed

 

They’ve also looked miles worse than they did under Rooney which I didn’t think was possible

 

That was a home game, doesn't count.

 

So they're starting to get smashed at home too.

 

I feel you can call it fairly accurately before it becomes mathematically impossible.

If Plymouth want to reach 50 points (the average to stay up for over 20 years) they have to earn 1.61 points per game until the end of the season. Leeds, Sheffield, Burnley and Sunderland are the only four teams with that amount of points a game so far, so they would have to – immediately – start performing like a top 4 team. They have three points from their last 5 games which is 0.6 points per game.

In comparison, we need 1.33 points per game until the end of the season. 11 teams have managed that so far, which means we need to – immediately – start performing like a top half team. We have 7 points from our last 5 games, which is 1.4 points per game.

Historically, only the top two or three teams in the league average 2 points per game. If there were 5 games left and 15 points available, even those teams would be expected to take only 10 points.

Therefore, I would argue that the upper point ceilings would be 57 for Plymouth and 62 for City (adding 36 points to our current totals) regardless of how many points are technically left to play for.

If Plymouth lose four more games, even performing like a top of the table team and earning two points a game would give them an upper ceiling of 49 points.

Similarly, If City lose seven more games, two points a game would only give us an upper ceiling of 48 points.

 

I really think we need to forget about 50 points.

It’s looking really unlikely it’ll be needed this year. We’ve got to just start taking it game by game and watching how our rivals do.

 

Aiming for 50 points leaves room for error and helps to somewhat ignore results when we play a top team, wouldn’t expect to get any points, and might temporarily drop back into the bottom three.

 

Yeah, but they draw the 2nd half. There's a positive for them.

 

I also think it creates unnecessary expectation though.

 

Don't know about them Syd, they're not in our League.