Just one further point and it does involve me, once again (sorry!!!), referencing Altior and the '17 Arkle Chase. Why can't Ballyburn run in 3 novice chases prior to the Cheltenham Festival, one after it (at either Aintree or Punchestown) but at the CF itself go for the Champion Hurdle??? Why (like with Altior in '17) run him in a comparatively nothing race (compared to the CH anyway) at the CF when he could be running in something 'blockbuster'. The best horse in training (and I believe Ballyburn is just like I thought Altior was in '17) should be going to the 'main event ' of the season and running in something major nor something low key. You can get 12's re Ballyburn and the '25 CH. I know that this outlook always get the racing purists (remember them?!?) going a bit berserk but to me running the best away from the best is harmful to our sport.
I see that forum pin-up and idol, Lieutenant Henderson, has just commented on the chance of Constitution Hill running in next month's Christmas Hurdle. In a single word he believes the possibility 'realistic', I say 'realistic'.
Possibly. I do agree the Champion Hurdle is clearly more prestigious than the Meghan Markle but you know Mullins - he wants to give himself the best chance of winning every race. Of more interest is Langer Dan's 3 entries this week - Long Distance Hurdle, Fighting Fifth or Hatton's Grace?
He's very short for the first named race, isn't he?!? Just 9/4. Unless, of course, those bookie chappies know the race is going to fall apart, in Langer Dan's favour, by Friday.
I wouldnt be going anywhere near Langer Dan at 9/4. Don’t forget people he doesnt ‘come alive’ until the Spring . I reckon LD will be aimed at the Stayers, burly Dan has said as much in something I read. I’d be amazed if he ends up at Newcastle at the weekend.
Race has indeed cut up to just 4 runners - although Langer Dan is one of the runners. The other 3 are Strong Leader, Monmiral and Flight Deck. Despite the small field Bet565 now slightly bigger than they were on Monday about Langer Dan - 5/2.
Monmiral looks the bet to me - fitness edge and not as far behind the top 2 as the official ratings would have you believe.
Sir Gino takes the Fighting Fifth Hurdle by 8 lengths from Lump Sum with a further 4.5 lengths to Kihavah in a time 1.79 seconds faster than standard - for context there were 2 other races on the card run faster than standard - Skyjack Hijack was fast by 2.11 seconds in the French Furze and Frero Banbou 3.63 seconds in the last. Definitely no "soft" in the going today. Looking at the official ratings prior to the race we had Sir Gino on 152, Lump Sum on 143 and Kihavah on 136 so it would appear that the first 3 have roughly run to their marks with Mystical Power being the big disappointment. Whether the journey across to England took its toll or something is amiss with him, only time may tell. He was beaten entering the back straight and it was a complete no-show. Sir Gino is clearly capable of much more but whether his performance today warrants him challenging Lossiemouth for favouritism for the Champion Hurdle is debatable. I couldn't touch him at 3/1, for me his is not (yet) slick enough at his hurdles but of course he is entitled to improve. Lossiemouth has miraculously recovered from the stone bruise that kept her out of the Morgiana last weekend (you get the feeling it would have finished Constitution Hill's season) and is a shade of odds-on for the Hatton's Grace in what is a very weak renewal (Ireland not being immune to poor Grade 1 races). Teahupoo will keep her honest but if she is to have any say in the Champion Hurdle she should be beating him here.
As if Joe Donnelly didn't have a strong enough hand in the Champion Hurdle with State Man and Sir Gino, his Anzadam was mightily impressive at Fairyhouse today on yard debut for Willie Mullins and is introduced into the Champion Hurdle market at 40/1. The 4YO lost his novice status last season in France and has probably put himself out of handicaps with that display today so it will be interesting to see where he goes next.
Lossiemouth saunters past Teahupoo on the bridle to win the Hatton's Grace is a hack canter. She is now as short as 6/4 (Paddy Power) for the Champion Hurdle but 2/1 is available with Hills amongst others. Again she was visually impressive but she has beaten Teahupoo FFS. 6/4 for a Champion Hurdle based on that? It's a good time to reflect now as most of the principals have has their first run of the season. Here the best prices available on Oddschecker right now: Lossiemouth 2/1 State Man, Constitution Hill 9/2 Sir Gino 5/1 Brighterdaysahead 12/1 33/1 bar So if we believe the market right now, only really 5 horses in contention and the big unknown elephant in the room remains Constitution Hill. If he turns up at Kempton and demolishes his rivals like last year he will be back into favouritism. That is a big if but I have taken a slice of 9/2 about him today - it is just a massive price and if anyone can get him back then it is Henderson. State Man looked burly in the Morgiana and will come on for his run there whilst Sir Gino remains more potential than rock solid form. I still want to see Lossiemouth take on a true Grade 1 2-miler and maybe she will meet Brighterdaysahead and State Man over Christmas? Or maybe come to Kempton? Speaking of Christmas, that will see the next round of races with the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and the December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown but I guess we will see the main protagonists avoid each other as usual.
Oddy, all the signs are that Constitution Hill is a “goner.” The bookies tend to know, and they’ve been against him for some time now. If so, then State Man has to be the bet at 9/2. The younger brigade would need around a 170 rating performance to despatch him at his best. I can’t see Lossiemouth nor Sir Gino capable of that. Certainly not yet, anyway.
Hi Tam, hope you are well? I hope you are wrong about Constitution Hill - after all, we had the Sprinter Sacre miracle Agree with you re State Man, I think only a "back to his best" Constitution Hill can beat him in March. The 9/2 about Constitution Hill has gone - now best price 4/1. More blue on oddschecker for Anzadam this morning too and he is now a best price of 25/1 but as low as 16/1 in places.
This horse really is being talked up in the media and in the racing press isn't he?!? Almost getting to the 'reincarnation of Pegasus' stage. But in the past aren't these the types who pay for those bookie chappies Winter hols and are the reason why they arrive at Cheltenham, in March, with glowing tans and why the punters slope in with pasty complexions?!? Meanwhile, going back to Langer Dan I see the handicapper, yesterday morn, left him unchanged on 160.
Kingland obviously not coming over this year. No apparent entries that I can see but presumably will go novice chasing at some stage. He will be 5 in Jan so it looks like a (possibly too early) Gold Cup in 2026 or hopefully in 2027. Although one would believe the Champion Hurdle would be too short for him, it would have been interesrting to see him have a go before being sent chasing
Just a couple of days to go until Boxing Day and (hopefully) a seismic clash between Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton (Burdett Road and Lump Sum making up the numbers in a field of just 4 - only Buveur D'Air's victory in 2017 saw such a small field this century). At the moment Lossiemouth is just shading favouritism for the Kempton showpiece at around 10/11 with Constitution Hill a general 5/4 shot. For the Champion Hurdle itself Lossiemouth is a general 7/4 shot with Constitution Hill around 2/1 so whoever wins on Boxing Day will go clear favourite for the Champion Hurdle. State Man and Brighterdaysahead will potentially renew their rivalry on the 29th at Leopardstown although Gordon Elliott's mare is also entered in the 3 mile Savills Hurdle a day earlier. At the moment Sir Gino is entered in the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton on the 27th and that could be another seismic clash with Ballyburn. Dark horse Anzadam doesn't have any entries over the festive period so might be going a quieter route e.g. the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas or the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (both in January). Marine Nationale only has an entry in the Paddy Rewards Club Chase on the 27th so they seem intent on staying over fences with him at the moment.
Constitution Hill now 1/2 for the Champion Hurdle. Whilst it was obviously a fine come back win yesterday the presence of Burdett Road 9 lengths back in 3rd having all but capsized at the last obstacle wouldnt have me rushing to lump on at that price. Today’s Wayward Lad chase at Kempton could have a bearing on this with either Sir Gino or Ballyburn having their March aspirations reviewed post race.
