But they’re 10th Winning a game 4-0 then losing 2 by a single goal, drawing and then winning the 5th game 5-0 doesn’t translate into success.
Scoring 4+ goals in a win and then drawing/losing the following game is EXACTLY why Spurs are where they are this season. Who is the next PL opponent ?? Ah yes, the Poool ...
It does seem to show that the system isn’t sustainable. We’ll dish out a lovely battering here and there but then suffer for it for a following 2-3 weeks.
Yes I know. But I maintain that goal difference is driven by skill but the distribution of goals scored or conceded is driven more by luck. Which is why I think goal difference is a better indication of performance than points, particularly over a small number of games. But, yes, points are the only thing that matter in the end...but you get points by scoring more goals than you concede.
It's not luck. It's the opponent's system, most of the time. If teams sit back and counter, then they have much more success than playing an open game against us, generally speaking. Tiredness and a lack of depth are also issues, of course, but it's mainly down to how our opposition set up. There are some games when we can affect this by scoring early and opening up the other team. Most of the time we're basically hoping for a mistake for that to happen, though.
None of our wins or losses this season have come from good or bad luck, they’ve all been deserving based on ours and/ or the opposition’s performances. Luck itself barely exists in football, if at all. It’s often just a term fans of average/ bad sides try to use to explain why others are better than them.
We didn't lose to Ipswich, Palace, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Arsenal or Brighton due to bad luck. Those teams all deserved their win. The only unlucky loss (IMHO) was away to Newcastle. We didn't draw with Fulham or Leicester due to bad luck either. Leicester dominated the last 35 minutes of our match and we got fortunate in our draw with Fulham. We have played poorly against in either one half (Chelsea, Leicester, Brighton) or the whole game (Bournemouth, Ipswich, Palace). We played ok against Arsenal and Fulham. The problem is we are inconsistent. I've said it for a while now. We are a pretty young, inexperienced team and are learning as we go. Our manager, while not young is very inexperienced in the Premier league and is learning as he goes. Until we get more experience and therefore more consistency this pattern will continue. Unfortunately I think Levy will dump ange and a new project will ensue
My observation is that most goals in football come from mistakes by the defence. There are then quite a few that come from good moves, a few worldies and a few from refereeing errors. Clearly the more skilful a side is the fewer goals it will concede from the first three and the more it will score. The refereeing errors one is pure luck. But if you analyse how the goals are distributed then luck must feature. For example in the Chelsea game we gave them two stupid penalties and they gave us two goals by falling over. They scored two goals whose XG must have been 0.1 each so each was a 10-1 chance. Someone is going to have to work very hard to convince me that the occurrence of those six goals in the same game was some sort of inevitable event driven by skill.
I did tell you This season has been all about trying to reach 12 points since about October. Another 7 looks a ****ing mountain right now tbh.
I didn't say that we were unlucky to win or lose any particular game. I said the distribution of goals was driven mostly by luck. That's an entirely different point.
I don't think that all of them did deserve their wins, but luck didn't come into it. Chelsea and Arsenal in particular were down to **** refereeing, as was Fulham's point. It's 16 games in and we still haven't had a penalty, despite being one of the most attacking teams in the division. Only Chelsea have scored more than us and that difference swings the other way without pens.
