Saturday's Meetings Newmarket Flat 8 Races 12:00-4:00p.m. Down Royal N/H 7 Races 12:25-3:50p.m. Wetherby N/H 7 Races 12:40-4:08p.m. Ayr N/H 6 Races 12:48-4:02p.m. Ascot N/H 7 Races 12:55-4:20p.m. Southwell(E) A/W 9 Races 4:15-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Wetherby 14,22 Thunder Rock 4/1 bet365, 7/2 others Ascot 15,15 Rightsotom 9/1 e/w bet365 and Lads four places, 15/2 sky five places
PLANTADREAM.. a 9 year old thats really holding its form and has arguably been unlucky last two races... only thing that puts me off a little is the jockey change but still too big at 10 Bet 365 e way...
The Friday juvenile card at Del Mar went well for the European raiders with Ger Lyons’ Magnum Force winning the Turf Sprint, Lake Victoria winning the Fillies Turf and Henri Matisse winning the Turf; but how will they fare on Saturday? It is difficult to make a case for William Knight’s Frost At Dawn in the Fillies And Mares Sprint (Dirt), even with some bloke called Dettori booked, as she last won at Meydan in March; and of the home team I would rather have Steve Asmussen’s Ballerina Handicap winner Society than three year old Ways And Means, as she beat a couple of today’s rivals that day. There is a strong challenge in the Turf Sprint (7:41) but I would be bothered about the first time blinkers on Believing, Ralph Beckett’s Starlust is overpriced if one ignores his effort in the Prix de l’Abbaye; as is Charlie Appleby’s Star Of Mystery, runner-up in a Grade 2 at Keeneland last time. The problem for the two big fancies is the outside draw, with Big Evs, not seen since a disappointing eighth in the Nunthorpe drawn next to winner Bradsell, who has beaten all the European challengers this term. Best of the home team looks to be Cogburn, who has beaten Star Of Mystery and many of the home team this season, and comes in on a four-timer. Little surprise that there is no European runner in the Distaff (Dirt) but, as usual, there is a strong challenge for the Turf (9:01). Almost all of the home team are very easy to dismiss as there is almost no Grade 1 form on offer. Cabo Spirit won the John Henry at Santa Anita and steps up two furlongs here and he beat There Goes Harvard (second), Gold Phoenix (fifth) and El Encinal (last) that day; whilst Argentine import El Encinal was last behind Gold Phoenix on his US debut. Grand Sonata won the Kentucky Turf Cup at this trip last time out but was previously last to Far Bridge in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga and Christophe Clement’s four year old looks the best chance of keeping the dollars in the States. Wingspan comes in on a good second in the Fillies And Mares on Champions’ Day but she will find conditions a little harder today on just a fourteen day turnaround. Although Emily Upjohn is reunited with Frankie, it is hard to make a case for her on form as she has not won since June 2023 and I wonder why she is not running in the Filly And Mare Turf. There are two Japanese raiders in the same ownership but Rousham Park was well behind Luxembourg (second) in the Hong Kong Cup nearly a year ago and has not troubled the judge in his last two starts. Six year old Shahryar could be fancied on his second in the Dubai Sheema (where Emily Upjohn was fifth) but the winner Rebel’s Romance is in today’s field and the Charlie Appleby six year old subsequently won at Sha Tin and was third in the King George (where Luxembourg was sixth). There are enough form lines to rule out the O’Brien first string, whose only win this term was in the Coronation Cup on easy ground (Emily Upjohn fourth). I would fancy improving three year old Jayarebe, who won the Prix Dollar last time, but his second to Economics does not look so hot after that one blew out in the Champion Stakes and this is his first attempt beyond ten furlongs. So a process of elimination leads me back to REBEL’S ROMANCE for a repeat of his 2022 win in this event at Keeneland. The Breeders’ Cup Classic used to be the last race on the card but tonight it is at 9:41. The British bookies unsurprisingly have City Of Troy as favourite on his dirt debut but I think The Derby winner is opposable. We have no idea until the stalls open what tactics Ryan Moore will adopt. Will he try to make all? Several of the outsiders look easy to discount. Mixto won the Pacific Classic but was well beaten in the Hollywood Cup and the Santa Anita Handicap before that shock win. Newgate won the Santa Anita Handicap but was only third in the California Crown when last seen with Senor Buscador fifth. Rattle N Roll was third on his only start this term in a Grade 2 and this is certainly a step too far. Next has won his four races in 2024, the best of them a Grade 2, but takes a drop in trip and a step up in grade here. One of the Japanese raiders is last year’s runner-up Derma Sotogake and his compatriot Ushba Tesoro was fifth last year. The latter has been runner-up on his three starts heading into this including a well beaten second in the Dubai World Cup (Senor Buscador third, Derma Sotogake sixth, Newgate ninth). Tapit Trice won a Grade 2 last time but was only fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup won by Highland Falls beating Pyrenees with Arthur’s Ride fifth. With most of the older horse form so intertwined, it makes sense to concentrate on the three year olds. Fierceness comes in at the top of his game having beaten Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy and having that same rival third in the Travers. Fierceness was favourite for the Kentucky Derby on sloppy dirt and ran poorly in a race where Sierra Leone finished a very narrow second and Japanese raider FOREVER YOUNG a very narrow third. Yoshito Yahagi’s colt subsequently won on dirt back home and comes here with that Kentucky Derby defeat as his only career reverse. After the Classic, there is a strong European challenge in the Filly And Mare Turf (10:25). Content turns out just fourteen days after a disappointing effort behind Kalpana on Champions’ Day and she is hard to fancy after two poor showings. Soprano is trying a new trip but she has raced Stateside having finished second at Keeneland last time following up on a third in the Matron Stakes. The extra quarter of a mile is enough of an issue for me to look elsewhere. Hang The Moon has won her last two, beating Beach Bomb (third) and Sunset Glory (fifth) in a Santa Anita Grade 2 and before that a Del Mar Grade 2 beating Anisette (third) and Didia (fourth). Having done War Like Goddess a couple of times previously, I will desert the mare here as her second to Far Bridge last time is probably her best effort in a while and she was beaten in the course and distance Grade 2 Flower Bowl on her penultimate start on dirt. Charlie Appleby is doubly represented. Beautiful Love won a Grade 3 at this trip but was third in another last time and this may be too hot for her. So is she in here to assist stablemate Cinderella’s Dream? She won the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and was last seen winning the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks. Of the home team, the best two chances may come from the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine. Full Count Felicia won that day from favourite Moira (Cinderella’s Dream was a non runner). That was a career best for Kevin Attard’s mare but his runner up Moira had previously been runner-up in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes (Didia fourth) and won the Grade 2 Beverly D Stakes, so she appears the more likely having not been out of the first three in nine starts. If I were going to bet against the Godolphin three year old, last year’s third in this event looks a good play. I will bypass the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (11:05) as I have a bad habit of picking the runner-up on the dirt! After that is one of the most successful races for the Europeans, the Breeders’ Cup Mile Turf (11:45). Sadly at the time of writing, two of the challenge are non runners, Diego Velazquez and the strongly fancied Ramatuelle. Most of the home team do not look up to the grade and the Japanese challenge looks weak. Ten Happy Rose is drawn wide and although she won the Victoria Mile she has run poorly since and there are better options on her inside. Geoglyph’s form figures are hardly inspiring and he is dropping from ten furlongs against specialist milers so even the two stall won’t help. Seven year old Grade 3 winner Goliad is surely out of his depth, a remark that also applies to Win For The Money, a surprise winner of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile with no previous graded wins. Chili Flag started her season with three wins, up in grade each time but was well beaten in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes before a good second at Keeneland last time. Her stablemate Carl Spackler has won four of five this season, beating More Than Looks in the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap and that same rival again in the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland last time. The widest draw of all is a real obstacle to his chances and More Than Looks was sixth in this last year when the finish was fought out by Godolphin. The best chance for the home team might be Johannes, winner of all four 2024 starts, including the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile and the Grade 2 City Of Hope Mile last time. That leaves me with the two European three year olds. 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech is the best horse in the race on his day. His poor run in the Moulin perhaps can be blamed on the soft ground but the ground was not the problem at Royal Ascot and pilot error tonight could be his undoing. PORTA FORTUNA was inches away from winning the 1000 Guineas and has not been beaten since. She sat behind the leaders at Royal Ascot to win convincingly and followed up in the Falmouth Stakes and the Matron Stakes. Soprano could frank the Matron form earlier on the card. Donnacha O’Brien’s filly was second at this meeting last year and can go one better by getting first run on the Godolphin colt for Tom Marquand.
Excellent write-up, QMIII, as usual. However, think I'll swerve Day-2 of the Breeders' Cup races, and just enjoy watching. Reason is I am aready 'loaded-up' with Tuesday's Melbourne Cup. The Victoria Racing Club's panel of vets are really causing a bit of mayhem this year?
Very nice hurdles debut from Romeo Coolio at Down Royal - should be one of the leading novices this season.
What a race at Down Royal and a great win for Envoi Allen who was right back to his very best. I'd love to see him back at Kempton for another crack at the King George.
Thanks. I spent half the morning trawling through the form as it is really the last flat meeting of the season from a betting point of view as it is sure to be soft for the November Handicap on Town Moor. Last year I just about broke even thanks to an each way placed at silly odds on an American horse because of being forced to accept British bookies prices and SPs makes backing ours over there hard to make pay. My mate has done Vauban ante post for the Melbourne Cup but I will just look for the result in the UK morning! Good luck with whatever you have done.
My mate has done Romeo Coolio for the first race on Wednesday at Cheltenham but the odds are shortening for the Supreme on Tuesday. As it was 2/13 at Down Royal it was either win easily or French restaurant/dog food factory/glue factory.
Not fast enough out of the gate and obviously hated the dirt. Thought he looked tiny against the American dirt horses
